According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the spot market price of gold will be 446.45 yuan/g on April 27, 2023, up 0.48% daily and 1.60% higher than that at the beginning of the month (April 1).

 

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of silver in the market will be 5602.33 yuan/kg on April 27, 2023, up 5.70% from the beginning of the month (April 1), and 4.81% from the early average price of 5345 yuan/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1).

 

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Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

 

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation.

 

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

 

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise.

 

Policy logic

 

The expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25BP in May is strong, but there are expectations of a slowdown in subsequent monetary policy tightening; Overall, the short-term interest rate hike cycle is still ongoing, and the upward space for precious metals has always been constrained before the expected rate hike is falsified.

 

Fundamental logic

 

1. Domestic consumption of precious metals has improved

 

According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, the national gold consumption in the first quarter of 2023 was 291.58 tons, an increase of 12.03% compared to the same period in 2022.

 

Among them: 189.61 tons of gold jewelry, a year-on-year increase of 12.29%; 83.87 tons of gold bars and coins, a year-on-year increase of 20.47%; Industrial and other gold consumption reached 18.10 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.90%.

 

2. Strong demand for central bank purchases

 

The global central bank’s gold purchase volume reached a record high of 1136 tons in 2022, and this trend is still continuing in 2023. Among them, the Singapore Monetary Authority purchased 51.8 tons of gold in the first two months of this year; The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for five consecutive months, and in the first quarter of 2023, global central banks maintained net purchases of gold. The People’s Bank of China increased its holdings of gold for five consecutive months from November 2022 to March 2023, with a total increase of 57.85 tons in the first quarter. By the end of March, China’s gold reserve had reached 2068.38 tons.

 

3. Year-on-year growth in domestic supply

 

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In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic raw material gold production was 84.972 tons, an increase of 1.571 tons compared to the same period in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 1.88%. Among them, 66.506 tons of gold from gold minerals and 18.466 tons of non ferrous byproducts were produced. Among them, large gold enterprises (groups) produce 32.717 tons of mineral gold in their mines, accounting for 49.19% of the national total. Overseas mines such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold achieved a mineral gold output of 14.395 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.17%.

 

In addition, in the first quarter of 2023, the production of imported raw materials was 29.901 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.41%. If this part of the imported raw material production was added, a total of 114.873 tons of gold were produced nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 6.92%.

 

Increased probability of high consolidation of precious metals

 

At present, the price of precious metals has approached a new high in nearly a decade. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to relatively full risk aversion, which has been basically reflected in the price. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

 

However, China’s economic data for the first quarter grew by 4.5%, which partially alleviated concerns of a global economic recession. Coupled with the expected increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in May, it has to some extent suppressed the prices of non yielding precious metals.

 

It is expected that the high volatility and consolidation of precious metals will be the main trend in the short term, with a bullish outlook in the medium to long term.

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The price increase of ortho xylene slowed down in April

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 26, the price of ortho xylene was 8800 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.23% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton as of March 31 of the previous month. In January, the price of ortho xylene decreased by 3.85%; In February, the price of ortho xylene surged by 6.67%; In March, the price of ortho xylene skyrocketed, increasing by 7.50%. In April, the upward trend of ortho xylene market slowed down, while the price of mixed xylene stopped rising and fell. The downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell, and the support for the rise of ortho xylene industry chain weakened and the downward pressure increased.

 

The market for raw material mixed xylene in April stopped rising and fell

 

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of April 26, the price of mixed xylene was 7830 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 3.43% compared to March 31 when the price of mixed xylene was 7570 yuan/ton. In April, crude oil prices first rose and then fell, while mixed xylene prices stopped rising and fell. The cost of ortho xylene decreased, and the upward momentum of ortho xylene weakened and the downward pressure increased.

 

Downstream phthalic anhydride market declined in April

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of April 26th, the quotation for phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.90% compared to the price of 8625 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, the market for phthalic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on orthoxylene increased.

 

Future prospects

 

Analysts from the Business Society’s neighboring xylene data believe that in April, the market of the neighboring xylene industry chain weakened, with crude oil prices rising first and then falling. The price of mixed xylene stopped rising and fell, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The support for the rising cost of neighboring xylene weakened, and the downward pressure increased. The downstream market weakened and demand weakened. In the future, the cost of ortho xylene will weaken, and demand will be weak. The ortho xylene industry chain will weaken, and it is expected that the price of ortho xylene will remain weak and stable in the future.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12850 yuan/ton on April 14, and 12950 yuan/ton on April 21. Caprolactam prices rose 0.78% this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Caprolactam market price slightly adjusted this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. The market supply of caprolactam is reduced due to equipment maintenance of some enterprises, and there are still enterprises planning maintenance in the later period. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and market transactions are still acceptable.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene stabilized first and then fell. On Friday (April 21st), the price of pure benzene ranged from 7400 to 7620 yuan/ton (average price of 7510 yuan/ton), a decrease of 0.87% compared to last week and a decrease of 10.7% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 7450 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions remained stable).

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

The caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has weakened recently, and the cost side support has weakened. However, the supply of caprolactam in the market has decreased, and the supply side has certain support. It is expected that caprolactam market price will be dominated by narrow range consolidation in the short term.

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This week (4.17-4.24), the market for dichloromethane fluctuated in a narrow range. As of April 24th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from last Monday’s 2667 yuan/ton, and the highest point in the cycle was 2672 yuan/ton. The low price of raw material methanol rebounded slightly, while the cost of dichloromethane showed some short-term support; Downstream demand is weak, providing weak support for dichloromethane. However, the supply of methane chloride is still loose, and the recent narrow consolidation of the dichloromethane market is the main trend.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

This week (4.17-4.24), the start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, but overall it remains loose.

 

This week (4.17-4.24), the price of raw material methanol rebounded slightly from the low point, while the cost of dichloromethane showed some short-term support. According to Business News, as of April 24th, the spot price of methanol was 2555 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02% from last Monday’s 2530 yuan/ton.

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The traditional peak season has arrived, and the refrigerant R32 market is operating at a high level, with stable operation and some support for dichloromethane. The pharmaceutical intermediate and diluent solvent industries are operating steadily, and there is a strong need for support for dichloromethane. However, there has been no significant increase in the overall demand side.

 

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst of the Business Society, the downstream of dichloromethane is currently in need of support, but the methane chloride industry is still at a high level and the supply side is loose. Although raw material prices have rebounded slightly, it is difficult to provide strong support for dichloromethane. Due to the fundamental game of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will narrow in the short term.

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This week (April 17-23, 2023), the overall performance of viscose staple fibers was calm and prices remained stable. Downstream trading is still primarily in demand, and the trading atmosphere is relatively average. Factory orders are mainly shipped, and the industry’s startup rate has slightly decreased. Currently, the overall industry load is around 72%, and the rotation of large factories has increased. The overall inventory of factories is low, and the market lacks confidence in the future.

 

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Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 23, the factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive staple fiber in China is 13280 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

 

In terms of cost: The production cost of viscose staple fibers has not changed much, and the cost support is limited. The raw material dissolving pulp market is undergoing horizontal consolidation and operation, while the domestic market is maintaining stability. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and businesses often execute preliminary orders, with stable shipments being the main focus.

 

Downstream cotton yarn market

 

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Downstream people’s cotton yarn transactions are average, and the price is basically maintained. However, some enterprises have reduced prices and promoted sales under inventory pressure. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 23, the average ex factory price of people’s cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17566 yuan/ton, which is consistent with last week’s price.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

At present, the performance of the viscose staple fiber market is calm, and enterprises are still mainly focused on executing orders, with firm quotations from enterprises. It is difficult for terminal demand to show significant improvement in the short term, with downstream procurement being the main focus. Analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will remain stable.

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Recent price trends of urea

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of urea in the domestic urea market rose slightly this week, from 2678.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2695.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.61%. Weekend prices have decreased by 8.27% compared to the same period last year. On April 16, the urea commodity index was 125.35, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 17.71% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 125.45% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

 

Reduced cost support, increased downstream demand, and abundant urea supply

 

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

 

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From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4030.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4250.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.46%. The weekend price has decreased by 37.54% compared to the same period last year; The price of anthracite dropped slightly. This weekend, the price of anthracite (washing block) in Yangquan was 1260 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week; The price of liquid ammonia has significantly decreased, from 3633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3416.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 5.96%. The weekend price has decreased by 31.48% compared to the same period last year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, with average support for urea prices. The downstream melamine price of urea has slightly decreased this week, dropping from 7825.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7700.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.60%.

 

From the perspective of demand, agricultural demand has increased while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, leading to an increase in agricultural demand. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From the perspective of supply, some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating a relatively sufficient supply.

 

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

 

In late April, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase. Urea analysts from Business Society believe that there are ups and downs in the upstream of urea, and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand has started to increase, and industrial demand is normal. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.

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According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 14, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was referenced at 4900 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4800 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.08%.

 

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From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in early April (4.1-4.14), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a stable and upward trend. In April, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market remained stable and organized, with some devices in the dimethyl carbonate field being shut down for maintenance and spot goods gradually being shipped out. As a result, the supply on the field was relatively reduced, and the pressure on the supply side was reduced. Some dimethyl carbonate factories and suppliers slightly increased the price of carbon dioxide, with an increase of around 100-200 yuan/ton. The overall focus of the dimethyl carbonate market was narrow and upward, as of April 14, The domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4700-5000 yuan/ton.

 

Analysis of Future Market Trends

 

At present, the downstream demand side of dimethyl carbonate is relatively stable as a whole. The upward trend of dimethyl carbonate market is mostly supported by the supply side, and the downstream order taking pace is average. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will be mostly stable, with overall operation being the main focus. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

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1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of PVC spot market fell in March. On March 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 6243.33 yuan/ton, while on March 31st, the average price was 6096.67 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 2.35% during the month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

PVC spot market prices fell in March. In the first half of March, there was relatively little price fluctuation. The price of calcium carbide sharply decreased in the second half of the month, resulting in weak support for raw materials. The spot price of PVC fell. On the 24th, the spot market price of PVC rebounded. On the whole, it mainly fell in the second half of the month. At present, transactions in the spot market are average, and downstream enterprises mainly rely on demand for goods, with low purchasing enthusiasm. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5830-6250 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of international crude oil, on March 30th, international crude oil futures saw a significant increase. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.37 per barrel, an increase of $1.40 or 1.9%. Brent crude oil futures rose, with the main contract settlement price at $78.60 per barrel, an increase of $1.01 or 1.6%. The unexpected decline in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, coupled with the obstruction of crude oil exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq, has provided significant support for the oil market.

 

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In terms of calcium carbide, the mainstream factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased in February. The price of calcium carbide decreased from 3483.33 yuan/ton on March 1 to 3133.33 yuan/ton on March 31, a decrease of 10.05%. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal has stabilized at a low level, while the cost support for calcium carbide is average. The downstream PVC market has recently slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. Stacking high levels of calcium carbide inventory results in oversupply. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly and decrease, with consolidation being the main trend.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

PVC analysts from the business community believe that the PVC spot market price fell this month, and the upstream carbide price fell, which is weak support. The overall market confidence is insufficient, and traders and downstream companies have a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Primarily purchasing on demand. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term.

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In March, the market for chloroform fell sharply. According to data from Business News Agency, as of March 31, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2675 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 16.41% from 3200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the monthly high was 3450 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has dropped significantly, while the cost of chloroform has declined significantly; At the beginning of the month, the supply side pressure in the trichloromethane market was relatively low, coupled with the rise in the downstream refrigerant peak season R22 price, which timely replenished the inventory of trichloromethane, driving the price of trichloromethane up slightly; In the second half of the month, with the early shutdown, the restart of the load reduction device, or the lifting of the load to normal operation, the pressure on the supply side of trichloromethane increased. In addition, the centralized replenishment of the downstream warehouse ended, resulting in light transaction in the later period, and a significant decline in the price of trichloromethane.

 

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In March, the start of trichloromethane production was relatively low at the beginning of the month and increased in the later period, resulting in a gradual increase in supply side pressure.

 

In March, the price of raw material methanol fell sharply, while the cost of chloroform fell sharply. According to the business news agency, as of March 31, the spot price of methanol was 2561 yuan/ton, down 6.37% from 2735 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

 

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On the one hand, the total production quota for R22 was reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. On the other hand, since the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, the price of R22 has been strong, and there is a replenishment demand for chloroform. However, due to the impact of quota reduction, the overall demand continues to decrease compared to previous years. In mid to late March, downstream support for chloroform gradually weakened.

 

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business News, although the supply side of chloroform is currently under great pressure, coupled with lower costs, it is expected that the market for chloroform will consolidate in a weak manner in the short term.

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