In 2020, the overall trend of domestic dimethyl ether market will fall first and then rise. In the first half of the year, the overall situation is in a “dilemma”. After the Spring Festival, the price falls again and again, breaking new lows repeatedly. In the second half of the year, we got out of the “dilemma”, raised prices successively, and successfully “reversed”. Compared with 2019, the overall market price is lower this year, but it fluctuates frequently during the year, which is more interesting than last year.
According to the data of the business agency, in 2020, the domestic dimethyl ether Market is mainly volatile. The business agency selects Henan as a reference. The average price of dimethyl ether at the beginning of the year is 3116.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year is 3340.00 yuan / ton, up 7.17% in the whole year. It can be seen from the trend chart that in 2020, the highest price of dimethyl ether appeared on January 21 and December 21, with an average price of 3340.00 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared on June 22, with an average price of 2193.33 yuan / ton. The maximum earthquake amplitude of the whole year was 34.33%. At the end of the year (December 21), the price had already exceeded the level at the beginning of the year, which was the same as the highest point in the year.
In the first half of the year, the market of dimethyl ether fell mainly, and the price frequently bottomed out
After the new year’s day and before the Spring Festival, the DME market continued its upward trend at the end of 2019 and ushered in a short “good start” in 2020. Before the Spring Festival, international crude oil continued to rise, supporting the domestic gas prices. In addition, Saudi Aramco’s CP price rose sharply in January, which promoted the continuous upward trend of domestic gas. Dimethyl ether was boosted by this positive, the price continued to rise. However, DME did not keep up with the decline, but continued to rise, with the price reaching the highest point in the year until the Spring Festival.
The downward channel was opened after the Spring Festival. Due to the decrease of terminal demand, the market “did not rise any more” and began to explore the bottom. Affected by the international public health events, the Spring Festival holiday was extended, the traffic and transportation in all cities were closed, the downstream was in a state of full shutdown, and the terminal demand was greatly reduced. Although the operating rate of dimethyl ether was at a low level, the transaction atmosphere was light and the market was still in the situation of oversupply. In addition, affected by the decline of international crude oil, the overall trend of LPG civil gas is weak, and the price difference between gas and ether is gradually narrowing, which makes the dimethyl ether Market “worse”, and the price falls again and again. It is worth mentioning that the DME market ushered in a wave of broad rise in April. At the beginning of April, affected by the Qingming holiday, downstream stores and replenishment demand were more active before the festival. The manufacturers delivered goods smoothly, the inventory was released, and the price was slightly pushed up. However, the price continued to rise sharply after the festival, which was irrational. The main reason is: from April 12 to 14, the wide upward trend of polypropylene led to the sharp rise of propylene. As the upstream of propylene, the price of propane also rose sharply during the period, while liquefied gas continued to rise driven by the surge of propane, and the price difference between gas and ether gradually opened, and dimethyl ether took advantage of the situation to follow.
This rise lacks substantial benefits. With the sharp fall of the LPG civil market, the dimethyl ether Market does not unexpectedly return to rationality, and the price ushers in a substantial correction. In addition, affected by seasonal factors, the weather temperature gradually warmed up, and the downstream demand gradually decreased. The dimethyl ether market ushered in the traditional off-season. The market was not good enough to support, and the weakness continued to the end of June.
In the second half of the year, dimethyl ether Market “Rose” and successfully got rid of weakness
In mid July, due to the continuous rise of the LPG civil market and the favorable market mentality, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry improved and the market transaction atmosphere improved. Henan took the lead in the rise, the prices of mainstream enterprises continued to rise, the overall situation of the market remained active, and then the rising situation spread. Prices in other regions followed the rise, but the activity was not as active as that in Henan, so the growth rate was lower than that in Henan. As the traditional off-season has not passed and the terminal demand has not been followed up, the market will return to a weak position and the price will fall to the level before the rise.
The real way to get rid of the weakness is from September. As the off-season has passed, the traditional “golden nine silver ten” sales peak season is ushered in, and the dimethyl ether Market has successfully “flipped”. Although the temperature in September was not obvious, due to the sharp rise of raw material methanol, the cost support was strong, which was good for the market mentality, and the manufacturers had a strong mentality, so they took advantage of the situation to push up the price. Downstream buy up mentality, enter the market more actively, manufacturers to ship smoothly, prices continue to push up. At the end of September, due to the arrival of the double festival, downstream replenishment demand before the stock Festival, the enthusiasm of entering the market was high, the atmosphere of manufacturers’ shipment was hot, and the inventory was running at a low level. On the other hand, the domestic crude oil price rebounded, and the main market was boosted by strong crude oil prices. With the arrival of the “silver 10″, although the market as a whole continued the upward trend, but the increase was narrower than that of “Jinjiu”. The price rose at the beginning of the month and decreased at the end of the month, deducting the “temperature difference”. The overall increase was 2.48%.
After entering November, the market returns to the upward line, and the price rises broadly. Under the strong support of rising raw materials, the price of dimethyl ether Market has been rising. In the middle of November, it has broken through the 3000 yuan / ton mark. In the last ten days, it is mainly consolidation, hovering around 3000 yuan. During the period, the continuous rise of international crude oil led to the rise of civil gas prices, and the weather continued to cool down, the terminal demand was improved, the downstream replenishment cycle was shortened, the market entry was more active, the market transaction atmosphere was good, the manufacturers’ mentality was strong, and the prices were continuously high. Although there is consolidation stage in the last ten days of the year, the market favorable factors still dominate in December, and the price rise can continue. The current price has reached the highest point in the year, and the average price in Henan is 3340 yuan / ton.
Comparison of trends of dimethyl ether and methanol in 2020
Statistics of DME market operating rate in 2020 (for reference only)
At present, the end of 2020 is coming to an end. With the support of the rising cost of methanol and liquefied gas civil market, the heat of market price rise will not decrease, and the ex factory price will be raised in succession, or the year 2020 will end with price increase. Generally speaking, the DME market in 2020 can be said to be “sweet with all the hardships”. Although the first half of the year repeatedly broke the historical low price, it finally ushered in the bottom rebound in the second half of the year. In the whole year, it can be said that the rise and fall of raw material methanol, and the trend is also affected by civil gas. In terms of overall demand, this year is greatly affected by the world public health events. It is expected that the demand will be better than this year next year, and the overall price may be higher than this year. In 2021, the trend may be “n”. However, more attention should be paid to methanol and civil gas.