Market Overview: In the last trading week before the holiday, the tight supply continued, and the shortage situation on the market did not improve. The quotes of major manufacturers continued to rise, but as the Spring Festival approached, some downstream manufacturers stopped work and had holidays, coupled with logistics shutdowns, the domestic acrylonitrile market trading stagnated, and there was no market for prices on the market. As of January 23rd, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 11600-11800 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 11500-11700 yuan/ton.

Supply shortage: Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 520000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant has resumed two sets of operation in mid January. Currently, the overall operating load is around 90%. Shandong Lihuayi’s plant has maintained 50% operation after an unexpected shutdown, and there is a full shutdown maintenance plan in February. Selbang has also maintained low load operation due to partial production line maintenance. At the same time, the production time of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical is not yet clear, and the tight supply is still driving the market to explore. The inventory of the enterprise remains low, and currently it is mainly supplied by contracts. The spot resources are continuously scarce, and the shortage situation is difficult to improve in the short term.

Reduced demand: The main downstream industries of acrylonitrile have all shown losses, coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, some small and medium-sized downstream factories also have plans to shut down and have holidays. Pre holiday stocking has basically ended, which may drag the market to continue to rise.

Cost aspect: Propylene is the main raw material for acrylonitrile production, so fluctuations in propylene prices will directly affect the production cost of acrylonitrile. When the price of propylene rises, the production cost of acrylic acid also increases accordingly. In order to maintain profit levels, acrylonitrile producers usually increase their selling prices, and vice versa. As of January 23rd, the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong region is 6835 yuan/ton, with average cost support.

Market forecast: Currently, the market supply increment is still limited in the short term, with main factories maintaining contract supply as the mainstay, and spot resources remaining scarce. However, with the recent rapid rise in prices, downstream users also have resistance, and some small and medium-sized downstream factories have plans to shut down and take a holiday near the Spring Festival. However, they are optimistic about the future market and expect a bullish outlook for the year ahead.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid was weak on January 23, with a market average price of 2950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from yesterday’s price, a decrease of 1.67%.

The domestic acetic acid market is operating differently, with some regions experiencing price reductions. There is no pressure on acetic acid inventory in regions such as Jiangsu and South China, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. Acetic acid quotations are mainly stable; Shandong, North China and other regions have a poor mentality, downstream stocking is coming to an end, market procurement is limited, on-site trading is average, and acetic acid prices have been adjusted downward.

On January 23rd, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On January 22nd/ On January 23rd/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2835 yuan/ton/ -15

Shandong region/ 2880 yuan/ton/ 2860 yuan/ton/ -20

Jiangsu region/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang region/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market is running weakly. On January 23rd, the average price in the domestic market was 2630.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% compared to yesterday’s price of 2643.33 yuan/ton. The downstream pre holiday stocking is coming to an end, and market buying is average. At the same time, the decline in external prices has led to a weakening of the domestic market, and production enterprises are offering discounts for shipments. As a result, the domestic methanol market prices continue to decline.

On January 23rd, the downstream acetic anhydride market remained stable, with an average ex factory price of 5097.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday’s price. The upstream acetic acid market has partially declined, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is weak. Downstream market entry follows demand, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. The supply and demand in the market are relatively balanced, and the acetic anhydride market is running steadily.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that downstream purchases have been basically completed before the holiday, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened. Acetic acid shipments vary among different regions in China, and the focus is mainly on wait-and-see. It is expected that the acetic acid market will operate steadily, and downstream follow-up will be closely monitored in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in January, the domestic adipic acid market continued to rise, with prices increasing by over 3%. On January 1st, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 8100 yuan/ton. On January 22nd, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 8366 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.29%.

Raw materials rise, adipic acid market continues to rise in January

After New Year’s Day, the demand for purchasing adipic acid from some terminals increased, and the raw material market stopped falling and stabilized. Supported by bullish factors, traders have raised the price of adipic acid one after another, and the adipic acid market has rebounded. The market transactions are still acceptable, and the volume of goods has increased. As of January 10th, the domestic market price of adipic acid has risen to around 8100 yuan/ton.

In mid month, the prices of raw materials pure benzene and cyclohexanone continued to rise, supported by costs. The domestic adipic acid market continued to rise, with prices exceeding 8300 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 3% compared to the beginning of the month.

At the end of the month, as the Spring Festival approached, the market for adipic acid gradually stabilized and continued to operate at a high level, with an average market price of around 8300-8600 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that after the Spring Festival, the supply of adipic acid will be loose, and the terminal demand will be average. The upward trend is difficult to sustain, and it may mainly lead to a weak downward trend.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke saw a significant increase in mid January. As of January 21, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1780.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.23% from 1660.00 yuan/ton on January 11.

On the cost side: In mid January, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. The OPEC+production reduction agreement was extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries still have compensatory production cuts. The United States has increased sanctions on Russia, and there are strong concerns about supply shortages. The positive support from the crude oil supply side has led to a significant increase in crude oil market prices; The easing of the Palestinian Israeli situation weakens potential supply risks, and the United States will increase crude oil production and replenish strategic reserves, causing a decline in crude oil market prices.

Supply side: Recently, the shipment of petroleum coke has been good and transactions have been active. Some coking units have plans to shut down or reduce production, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke. In addition, with the approaching Spring Festival and downstream enterprises stocking up before the holiday, the price of petroleum coke continues to rise. Recently, the import of sponge coke resources has been relatively tight, and traders are hesitant to sell.

On the demand side: Currently, the overall operating rate of the domestic silicon metal market is low, and there are few silicon metal factories in production in Yunnan and Sichuan regions. The market mentality is not good. In January, silicon metal factories continued to reduce production, and although inventory pressure was tight and accumulated slightly, demand conversion was not timely. The overall performance of the silicon metal supply side is still weak, providing limited support to the market. The demand for high sulfur pellet coke in the silicon carbide industry and the southern fuel market still exists.

In mid January, the overall price of electrolytic aluminum rose, and the stock of Shanghai Aluminum continued to drop to a 10 and a half month low. At the same time, the ban on Russian aluminum intensified supply concerns; In addition, the urgent need for downstream replenishment before the holiday provides support for aluminum prices. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

Market forecast: With the Spring Festival approaching, refinery Spring Festival orders have been signed one after another, and downstream demand has entered the market. It is expected that the petroleum coke market will gradually stabilize in the near future, with narrow fluctuations being the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 21800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.22% compared to the same period last year. On January 19th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 76.49, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.80% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 29.82% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is running steadily, and in the Shandong region, the price of bromine is running steadily. The mainstream market price is around 21500-22000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are conducting centralized maintenance. Most downstream manufacturers have also stopped production. Downstream demand is weak. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained strong, with an average market price of 1624.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1644.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has increased by 1.23%, which is 80.7% higher than the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. However, downstream demand for bromine has decreased, with demand mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently (1.1-1.17), the market price of butadiene rubber has risen significantly. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 17, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14880 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.45% from 13720 yuan/ton on January 1. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted significantly upward; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased to around 7.2%, and the pressure on the supply side has decreased; Downstream tire production is steadily consolidating, and pre holiday stocking is essential to support the demand for butadiene rubber. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have increased, and the quotes from merchants have also risen. As of January 17th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangzi in East China are 14700~15050 yuan/ton.

Recently (1.1-1.17), the price of butadiene has risen significantly, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted significantly upward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 17th, the price of butadiene was 10800 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.39% compared to 10800 yuan/ton on January 1st.

Recently (1.1-1.17), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly decreased, with overall construction around 7.2%.

Demand side: Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of January 16th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.8%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 60% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly increase, and the cost of butadiene rubber will have strong support; In recent times, downstream production has remained stable with slight consolidation, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, market transactions are gradually weakening; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased to around 7.20%, indicating a slight reduction in supply pressure. Overall, the butadiene rubber market is mainly fluctuating at high levels before the holiday.

1、 Market situation

This week, the price of acrylic acid in the market showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the upward trend narrowing slightly. As of January 15th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7700.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.99% compared to the beginning of this month (7550.00 yuan/ton). Despite the price increase, the upward space for the price will narrow.

2、 Supply side analysis

1. Maintenance and resumption of production of the acrylic acid plant: The recent maintenance and resumption of production of the acrylic acid plant have had a direct impact on the supply side. Due to maintenance or reduced load operation, some acrylic acid plants have maintained a narrowing trend in the utilization rate of acrylic acid production capacity. However, as the maintenance equipment gradually resumes production, the supply side is expected to release more capacity, but the specific release speed and scale still need to be observed.

2. New production capacity: Some of the new production capacity is about to be put into operation, which will further increase market supply. However, due to the uncertainty of the production progress and capacity release of new capacity, the impact on market supply is still difficult to determine.

3、 Demand side analysis

1. Downstream demand: The main downstream application areas of acrylic acid include coatings, adhesives, textile auxiliaries, water treatment agents, etc. However, downstream demand has not significantly increased recently, and even in some industries, companies still maintain cautious inventory management strategies. This has led to an increased wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with factories maintaining long-term inventory consumption and low price source inquiries being average.

2. Market wait-and-see: Due to the expected release of supply, but downstream demand has not shown significant growth, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. This further exacerbates the range consolidation trend of the acrylic acid market.

4、 Raw material cost analysis

As the main raw material of acrylic acid, the price fluctuation of propylene directly affects the production cost of acrylic acid. As of January 15th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 7068.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.40% compared to the beginning of this month (6835.75 yuan/ton). This relatively stable cost environment provides a certain guarantee for the production of acrylic acid, but it is still affected by changes in the raw material supply chain.

5、 Market Competition and Strategy

The competition in the acrylic acid market is fierce, and companies may adopt price reduction strategies to compete for market share. However, in situations of supply-demand imbalance, this strategy may not work as expected. Faced with fierce market competition, some companies may choose more sustainable development plans, such as improving product quality and optimizing production processes to reduce costs and enhance competitive advantages.

6、 Future prospects

In the short term, the acrylic acid market is likely to continue to maintain a volatile consolidation state. Although the expectation of supply side release is gradually increasing, the weak growth of downstream demand remains a major concern in the market. In this context, investors and related enterprises should closely monitor market dynamics and relevant information in order to make timely and reasonable judgments and decisions. At the same time, facing an uncertain macroeconomic environment, enterprises also need to maintain flexible response strategies in order to adjust their business strategies in a timely manner in the face of market changes.

In summary, the phenomenon of consolidation in the acrylic acid market under the supply-demand game is the result of multiple factors working together. The future market trend will depend on further competition between supply and demand sides, as well as changes in the macroeconomic environment.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the supply of TDI in the domestic market has been slow recently, with suppliers mainly completing export orders and contract orders. The market’s spot resources are tight, and TDI prices have slightly increased. As of this Friday, TDI domestic goods are priced around 13000-13200 yuan/ton, while Shanghai goods are priced between 13200-13500 yuan/ton. Downstream demand remains strong, and the trading atmosphere on the market is average. It is expected that the TDI market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of domestic mixed xylene market at the beginning of 2024 is 6970 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year is 6110 yuan/ton, with an annual decline of 12.34%. The overall trend of the mixed xylene market in 2024 is weak and can be divided into two stages: a volatile upward trend in the first half of the year and a continuous downward trend in the second half.

From the monthly K-bar chart of Business Society’s mixed xylene market, it can be seen that the mixed xylene market in 2024 has mixed ups and downs, with 6 months of upward movement and 6 months of downward movement. The highest increase was 6.31% in January, and the highest decrease was 14.24% in September.

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.

1、 Review of the toluene market in 2024

First half of the year: Supported by favorable supply and demand, it rose 11.19%

In the first half of 2024, under the multiple positive influences of geopolitics, changes in expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, and improved demand expectations, crude oil and naphtha prices overall rose. Especially in the first quarter, there was a significant increase, and the cost faced strong market support. In the first half of the year, domestic xylene enterprises conducted centralized maintenance, resulting in overall tight domestic supply. In terms of imports, the overall import volume was relatively low, which once again boosted market confidence. The demand for oil in the demand side was good in the first quarter, but the demand gradually weakened in April, dragging down the xylene market and causing an overall correction. In the first ten days of May, the base note oil market recovered again and the downstream PX market demand improved, driving the mixed xylene market to usher in a wave of rising prices again. After June, due to poor performance in the downstream oil blending market, the market continued to lack upward momentum, and the trend of the mixed xylene market weakened.

In the second half of the year, both supply and demand fell to a three-year low

In the second half of 2024, the mixed xylene market experienced an overall decline, with a cumulative decrease of 21.16%. After entering the third quarter, geopolitical and storm premium factors eased, and the crude oil market fell under pressure. Brent and WTI successively fell below the $70 mark, and the trend of naphtha prices was also weak, resulting in a bearish overall cost performance. Since late July, the supply side has resumed production of equipment that entered maintenance in the first half of the year. The total domestic operating rate has increased from nearly 60% to around 75%, indicating a significant easing of market supply. At the same time, there was a significant increase in import volume in the second half of the year, and the overall supply performance was bearish. On the demand side, the total export quota for China’s third batch of refined oil products in September decreased by 4 million tons year-on-year. The export of gasoline and diesel has weakened, and the overall performance of terminal demand is weak. Overall, under the dual negative impact of supply and demand, the mixed xylene market has been declining, falling to a low level in nearly three years.

2、 Outlook for the Mixed Xylene Market in 2025:

Cost side: The 2025 oil price range is fluctuating, and the cost side support is relatively stable

The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2025, under the premise of maintaining the current level of production policy in OPEC+, global oil supply will show a surplus of over 1 million barrels. Business Society believes that based on the current production capacity and the premise of moderate growth in US crude oil supply in the future, it is expected that the supply-demand balance in 2025 will transition from a tight equilibrium state to a balanced state; In addition, considering that there are currently no more intense conflicts in the geopolitical foundation, as well as factors such as risk premiums, the upward range of oil prices in the future may be suppressed. Therefore, Business Society predicts that the average Brent oil price in 2025 will generally fluctuate within the range of $73-76. The mixed xylene market will receive overall stable support in terms of cost in 2025.

Raw material surface: The production of naphtha is steadily increasing, and the supply of raw materials is sufficient

Naphtha is the main raw material for producing mixed xylene, and its production and operation will directly affect the development of the toluene industry. With the continuous improvement of China’s refining capacity and the sustained release of downstream market demand for naphtha, China’s naphtha production continues to steadily increase. Data shows that the cumulative production of naphtha in China from January to November 2024 is about 73.3 million tons. Currently, the main production areas of naphtha in China are Shandong, Guangdong, Liaoning and other provinces, with Shandong Province having the most prominent production. The steady growth of naphtha production provides important raw material guarantees for the development of the mixed xylene industry.

Supply side: Expected increase

The global production of xylene in 2024 is approximately 33 million tons. The global xylene market is fiercely competitive, mainly concentrated in countries and regions such as the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. In 2024, China’s mixed xylene production capacity and output will maintain a growth trend, but the growth rate will decrease compared to previous years. In 2025, there will still be new production capacity for mixed xylene in China, and the future production of mixed xylene will continue to increase to a certain extent.

Demand side: Stable with upward trend

In the past five years, China’s PX production capacity has steadily expanded. Under the policy influence of industrial restructuring, there has been little change in domestic PX production capacity in the past 24 years. As of 2024, China’s total PX production capacity is 43.5 million tons, with a production of about 37 million tons, and overall demand is stable with an upward trend. The downstream mixed blending market is the second largest consumer industry for mixed xylene. With the increase of domestic car ownership, the consumption of gasoline has also increased, which has driven the demand for mixed xylene. However, due to the improvement of domestic gasoline quality, the proportion of blended xylene has decreased. In addition, with the increasing proportion of new energy passenger vehicles, the demand growth rate of blended xylene in gasoline blends is relatively slow.

Market forecast:

In the short term, some new facilities were put into operation in the first quarter, and there is an expected increase in domestic xylene production. Downstream PX enterprises have shown stable production in terms of demand recently, and there was no new production capacity put into operation in the first quarter. Overall demand is relatively stable. There is a certain stocking demand in the downstream market near the Spring Festival, and there will be some upward space in the mixed xylene market driven by demand before the Spring Festival.

In the long run, the international crude oil price range will fluctuate in 2025, the cost of mixed xylene will still be supported, the supply side is expected to increase, and downstream demand still has some room for growth. Under the interweaving of negative and positive market conditions on the supply and demand side, it is expected that the mixed xylene market will continue to fluctuate within a certain range in 2025.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the DOP price was 8226.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 8.99% compared to the DOP price of 9038.75 yuan/ton on December 1st. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of raw materials has fallen, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased. However, the downward trend of DOP is slower than that of isooctanol. The profit of plasticizer DOP is high, and the enthusiasm of plasticizer enterprises to start production is high. The operating rate of plasticizers is high, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. During the off-season of downstream PVC, the demand for plasticizers is average, and the risk of excess inventory of plasticizer DOP is increasing, resulting in fluctuating prices of plasticizer DOP.

Downstream demand is lukewarm

Downstream PVC product enterprises have low production rates, and the downstream market is traditionally off-season, resulting in a decrease in downstream PVC production. The winter in the north continues, and the demand for plasticizers is weak; The downstream market is declining, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

Raw material prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of isooctanol was 7600 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 16.79% compared to the price of 9133.33 yuan/ton on December 1st. In December, the production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable at a high level, and coupled with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, the supply of isooctanol increased significantly in December. The downstream demand increment is not as significant as the increment of octanol, and there is an oversupply of isooctanol, which increases the downward pressure on isooctanol. In December, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol dropped significantly in December, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; In terms of demand, during the off-season of the market, downstream PVC companies have seen a decrease in production, resulting in average demand for plasticizers; On the supply side, plasticizer companies have high profits, and their enthusiasm for starting production has increased. However, plasticizer companies are operating at high levels, resulting in an oversupply of plasticizers. In the future, the price of raw material isooctanol has dropped significantly, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased; In addition, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall.