According to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of January 30, the price of the power-type premium lithium iron phosphate was 154000 yuan/ton. The lithium iron phosphate market was stable and the price remained unchanged. The mainstream price range was around 155000 yuan/ton. It was mainly for contract customers, and new orders were not accepted.

In January, the trend of lithium iron phosphate was stable, and the price fluctuation was limited. At present, the mainstream price was 155000 yuan/ton. The downstream just needed to purchase, and it maintained stable operation in the short term. The manufacturer’s supply was only for old customers, and new customers did not receive orders.

Chemical commodity index: The chemical index stood at 923 points on January 29, up 7 points from yesterday, down 34.07% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 54.35% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Analyst of LiFePO4 of the Business Agency believes that the market of LiFePO4 will operate stably in the short term.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong increased from 9566.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9833.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 2.79%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decline was 7.23%. The isooctanol commodity index on January 15 was 72.30, which was the same as yesterday, down 47.42% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 105.69% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support increases, and downstream demand is better

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7250.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7330.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.10%, down 6.51% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was general. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. The price of DOP rose from 9850.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10020.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.73%, down 1.04% year on year. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers actively increased their purchase of isooctanol.

Future prospects

In the middle and late January, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, with good cost support. Downstream DOP market rose slightly, and downstream demand increased. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market will probably rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 6155 yuan/ton last Friday, and the average price of this Friday was 6216.67 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 1% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market price of PVC rose slightly this week. At present, the spot market is fair. This week, the spot market has good confidence, and the market price is upward, with a slight increase. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream markets stock up on demand. As downstream enterprises have holidays in succession, the market transactions have gradually faded. Up to now, the domestic price range of PVC5 carbide is mostly around 6000-6450 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures rose on January 12. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.39/barrel, up US $0.98 or 1.3%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.03/barrel, up US $1.36 or 1.7%. Influenced by the optimistic expectation of China’s demand outlook and the unexpected drop in consumer prices in the United States in December, the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy slowed down and oil prices gained support.

In terms of calcium carbide, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region rose this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose from 3716.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3850 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 3.59%. The price of upstream blue charcoal has been consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide has increased.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of the Business Agency believe that the spot price of PVC rose slightly this week. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the market transactions will gradually fade as downstream enterprises have holidays. It is expected that the PVC market price will be sorted out in the short term. Pay close attention to changes in the news.

According to the survey data of Business News Agency, the average market price of bromine was 53142.86 yuan/ton on January 1, 2022, and 44600 yuan/ton at the end of 2022. In the first half of 2022, the price of bromine will be “beautiful”, and the price will run at a high level; In the second half of 2022, the price of bromine will be depressed and the market will be weak.

From the monthly K-bar chart of bromine, it can be seen that the price of bromine will rise for 4 months in 2022, with the largest increase of 16.9% in October and a decrease of 8 months, and the largest decrease of 17.59% in August.

In the first quarter, the price of bromine rose rapidly and then fell back. The price of bromine rose from January to the first ten days of February, and fell from February to the end of March. At the beginning of January, the price was 53142.86 yuan/ton, and on February 10, the price of bromine was 59000 yuan/ton, up 11.02%. Due to the weather, bromine enterprises have a small amount of cash, and the supply is relatively tight. Affected by the tight spot supply, the domestic bromine market was at a high level in January, and most of the manufacturers had stopped. Except for a few enterprises that could provide spot goods, most of the enterprises shipped in stock, and the market inventory was at a low level. Then from the middle of February to the end of March, the price of bromine dropped to 55600 yuan/ton, with a range of 6.71%. Downstream flame retardants and pharmaceutical intermediates industries started relatively slowly after the Spring Festival, and most of them were purchased on demand, and the shipments of enterprises were general. In fact, supply and demand are weak and the market is stagnant.

In the second quarter, the price of bromine rose. At the beginning of April, the price was 55600 yuan/ton, and at the end of June, the price of bromine was 58400 yuan/ton, up 5.04%. At this stage, with the warming of the weather, bromine enterprises have no overall inventory pressure and supply is tight. Bromine enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the intention of price increase is obvious. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream flame retardant and pharmaceutical intermediate industry is moderate, which supports the price of bromine.

In the third quarter, the price of bromine stabilized in the middle of July and August, maintaining around 58000 yuan/ton. Due to the high temperature in summer, bromine production increased less than expected, bromine enterprises increased their prices, bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates were generally supported, and the supply and demand of both sides played a game, and bromine prices consolidated the market. The price dropped sharply from mid-late August to early September. The price of bromine was 57600 yuan/ton in the middle of August and 42600 yuan/ton at the end of September, down 26.04%. The price of bromine has declined, the overall purchase of downstream flame retardant and intermediate industry has been general recently, the market volume is still light, and the production of bromine enterprises is relatively stable. In the game of supply and demand, bromine enterprises intend to increase. However, the downstream is not in a hurry to purchase and intends to reduce the price.

In the fourth quarter, the price of bromine rose in October. At the beginning of October, the market price was 42600 yuan/ton, and at the end of October, the price of bromine was 49800 yuan/ton, up 16.9%. Now the bromine manufacturers are approaching the off-season of production, the manufacturers have no inventory, the inventory pressure is low, and the main manufacturers’ offer rises. The price of bromine dropped from November to the end of the year. At the beginning of November, the price of bromine was 49800 yuan/ton, and at the end of December, the price of bromine was 44600 yuan/ton, down 10.44%. The price of raw materials is down, and the market transactions are still mainly based on purchase on demand. The industry is pessimistic, and there are opportunities to hold down prices. Downstream flame retardants, pesticide intermediates and other industries have recently started to maintain low load, and the demand is relatively low, and the support for bromine price is insufficient. Enquiries are in a weak atmosphere and transactions are sporadic in the market.

Supply side

In winter, the production of the bromine industry is routinely stopped, and the prosperity of the industry is declining. At present, the overall operating rate of the bromine industry is relatively low. Some data show that the overall operating rate of the industry is below 20%, and the bromine operating rate remains low. Affected by the temperature, some seawater bromine plants in Shandong Province were shut down, and the seawater bromine production declined. Although the bromine enterprises have not started enough, they still have inventory, which is mainly consumed in the early stage. In addition, data shows that the total output of bromine in 2022 will be about 90000 tons.

Import

The import is relatively sufficient. According to customs data, the cumulative import volume of bromine from January to November was about 54000 tons, and the imported bromine is still an important supplement to domestic bromine. According to the import volume of bromine in previous years, the annual import volume of bromine in 2022 is expected to exceed 60000 tons.

According to the analysts of the Business News Agency, the price of bromine is weak in the near future, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industry of bromine is generally supported in the near future, the market transaction is weak, bromine enterprises mainly consume more inventory, and the downstream takes the opportunity to lower the price. It is comprehensively estimated that the short-term bromine price will be weak in January. However, as the weather warms after the year, enterprises will resume production, and downstream demand will recover. After the year, bromine may recover, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1128 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1114 yuan/ton. The price fell by 1.24%, and the price rose by 14.55% compared with the same period last year. The caustic soda commodity index on January 5 was 160.29, down 0.29 points from yesterday, down 39.62% from the highest point of 265.47 points in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 146.18% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the Business Agency, the domestic caustic soda price fell this week. The average market price in Shandong is about 1050-1110 yuan/ton. The ex-factory quotation of 32% of the mainstream liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the site is weak. Downstream market sentiment is dominated by wait-and-see, and most of them are purchased on demand. However, as the end of the year approaches, the downstream construction has decreased, and the stock plan has come to an end some time ago. Now, the purchase intention is not strong.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, in the 52nd week of 2022 (12.26-12.30), there were 1 commodity that rose, 1 commodity that fell, and 3 commodities that rose or fell to 0 in the price list of chlor-alkali industry. The main commodities rising were PVC (0.27%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (-0.88%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.12%.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has declined, the downstream alumina price is stable, and the trading atmosphere is relatively light. The Spring Festival is approaching, and the purchase of the previous period has come to an end. Now, most of the purchases are based on demand. It is comprehensively estimated that caustic soda will be mainly operated in a weak way next week, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of Business News Agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has risen recently. The average price of styrene in Shandong was 8000.00 yuan/ton on the 2nd and 8166.67 yuan/ton on the 9th, up 2.08%. The price fell 3.81% from the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene has risen recently. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene is mainly volatile, and the price of styrene rose slightly this week. The price of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range, and the cost support is general. Although the downstream is just needed, the purchase intention is good, which has some support for the market. The port inventory may have a small decrease in expectations, which is good for the styrene market. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly rise.

In terms of raw materials, the fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, the downstream are more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure. This week’s trend of pure benzene fluctuated. On December 2, the price of pure benzene was 6450-6600 yuan/ton (average price: 6559 yuan/ton), and on Friday (December 9), the price of pure benzene was 6400-6550 yuan/ton (average price: 6514 yuan/ton), down 0.31% from last week, up 1.46% from the same period last year.

Downstream, the three major downstream of styrene rose and fell in different ways. At present, the PS market is in a narrow market. The upstream styrene price continues to rise, while the downstream styrene remains in demand. The pace of merchant shipments is slow. The average price of PS is 9733.33 yuan/ton.

EPS price fluctuated slightly recently. The overall turnover weakened on a month-on-month basis. The average price of EPS ordinary materials is 10455 yuan/ton, and the buying enthusiasm is not high. The EPS market quotation is weak, and the manufacturers maintain a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand performance is low.

At the beginning of January, the domestic ABS market was weak and the price was generally stable. According to the monitoring of the data of the Business News Agency, the average price on January 9 was 11750 yuan/ton, which was the same as the average price at the beginning of the month. This week, the load of the ABS industry remained high, the current plant operation was stable, and the supply of goods on the site continued to be abundant. Due to the supply pressure of enterprises to a certain extent, the inventory position rises and the ex-factory price is under pressure. At present, the downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, prepare goods in order. The early stage of goods preparation in the field before the festival is basically completed. The recent demand tends to be stable, and the goods are normally transported in the field. Buyers and merchants followed the market and performed steadily.

As the Spring Festival approaches, the transportation is not smooth, and the overall supply and demand before the festival is fluctuating and weakening, and the styrene market is expected to decline slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic carbon black price was 12050 yuan/ton on January 6, and the domestic carbon black market price was temporarily stable this week.

On the cost side: the price of high-temperature coal tar as raw material dropped by about 300 yuan/ton this week, and the cost side support of carbon black enterprises weakened. At present, coke enterprises have improved their enthusiasm to start construction. Downstream deep processing enterprises and carbon black enterprises, carbon black enterprises, are operating under pressure and have a heavy pressure on the price of coal tar. In the absence of obvious advantages, the price of coal tar has been corrected.

Supply and demand: As the Lunar New Year approaches, the number of enterprises stopping production for maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined this week. It is expected that the overall construction may continue to decline. Affected by weak demand, some carbon black manufacturers slow down their shipments and the carbon black inventory has increased.

In terms of downstream tire enterprises, the construction was insufficient, and the turnover of new orders was limited. There was no good news to boost the market. At present, the tire market sales are average, and the market transaction atmosphere is average. There is no good support for the carbon black market.

In general, the price of raw material high temperature coal tar has declined, and there is no obvious benefit in the downstream. It is expected that the price of carbon black market will be adjusted in the short term, and attention should be paid to the raw material and downstream market dynamics in the later period.

In 2022, the MIBK market fluctuated in a narrow range to the beginning of the second quarter. The epidemic broke out in many places, the terminal consumption was sluggish, and the domestic trade orders were seriously insufficient. The market went down all the way to the beginning of September, hitting the lowest point of 9580 yuan/ton at the end of the year. In September, as the upstream products of the industrial chain recovered, the MIBK market stopped falling and rebounded under the support of cost. In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of domestic factories was concentrated, and MIBK continued to rise to 15600 yuan/ton at the end of the year under the support of a favorable supply side. The annual increase was 9.51, with an amplitude of 61.5%.

The first stage (January August): the negative cost side superimposed logistics factors, and the domestic MIBK market declined significantly. On January 1, 2022, the domestic market offered 14200 yuan/ton, then the market fell slightly and then retreated, and the market offer continued to be 13900 yuan/ton in late April. On the whole, the market fluctuated slightly from January to April.

Subsequently, the epidemic situation gradually expanded, the logistics and transportation were limited, and under the influence of the sharp decline of upstream crude oil, the raw material acetone fell broadly, and the downstream terminal was filled with bad news. It was difficult to have real order negotiations on the site, and the pressure on traders grew day by day. The market fell sharply from May to early September, and the market offer was 9580 yuan/ton as of September 10, a cumulative decline of 33%.

The second stage (September December): cost support, but more under the leadership of supply and demand, MIBK market started to rise all the way. In September, as the hot weather around the country subsided, the impact of various policies such as power and production restriction slowed down. Many terminal industries returned to work after the off-season. The main raw material, acetone, rose by 31% in the mainstream negotiation price of the East China market in September. Supported by costs, the MIBK market rose significantly.

In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of MIBK enterprises was concentrated. Jilin Petrochemical, Ningbo Zhenyang, Dongying Yimeide and Zhenjiang Li Changrong all stopped for maintenance. The supply side was tightened, while the procurement of downstream antioxidant 4020 was improved. Supported by the favorable supply and demand, the MIBK market rose significantly in the fourth quarter, rising to 15500 yuan/ton at the end of the year.

In 2022, the total output of China’s MIBK will be 104500 tons, an increase of 16% month on month, and the monthly average output will be 8700 tons. The annual capacity utilization rate will be relatively high. The operating rate will be low from November to December. Under the tight supply, the market price will increase by 15% each month, which shows that the supply will have a great impact on the market. In 2022, the industry prosperity and external environmental impact will restrain terminal demand, and the overall decline will be significant. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price in 2022 will be 12214.4 yuan/ton, down 41% compared with 20694.8 yuan/ton in 2021.

From the perspective of the business community, it is expected that the mibk market will continue to rise in January as 2023 enters. On the one hand, the supply will decline significantly, and the spot circulation will be low and relatively concentrated. On the other hand, there may be a replenishment plan for downstream antioxidants near manufacturers. Merchandise holders continued to push up, and the market was strong or continued to push up. In the medium and long term, MIBK has only 125000 tons of capacity in China, most of which are contracted to supply antioxidants in major downstream industries, with limited market circulation. In the later stage, we should continue to pay attention to the fluctuations of raw acetone and the changes of major downstream demand.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic methanol market fell first and then rose, which was in shock. From December 1 to 30 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2681 yuan/ton to 2660 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price dropped by 0.81% and rose by 12.00% year on year.

At the beginning of this month, the domestic methanol market was weak and volatile, mainly due to supply and demand. The operating rate of the production enterprises has increased, while the source of imported goods continues to arrive at the port, and the supply is abundant. However, the existing demand has not been significantly boosted. From the first ten days of the month to the end of the month, the supply side production enterprises mainly focus on de stocking, and the traditional downstream also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance.

As of the closing of December 30, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2567 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2656 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2562 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2653 yuan/ton, up 91, or 3.55%, from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1366135 hands, the position was 1053011 hands, and the daily increase was 84631 hands.

Summary of methanol market prices by regions by 12.30:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2150-2180 yuan/ton

Liaoning region/ 2280-2300 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2460-2500 yuan/ton

Henan/ 2270-2280 yuan/ton

In terms of cost, the coal price has been lowered. In December, due to the impact of public health events near the end of the year, the supply of coal mines in Inner Mongolia and other places was tightened, mainly to ensure supply, but the enthusiasm of downstream procurement was poor, and the sales of coal mines were average. The positive cost of methanol disappeared.

Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Henan Xinlianxin device is planned to restart at the beginning of next month, Chongqing Wanlilai and Henan Yongcheng devices have not yet set a restart time, and next month is approaching the Spring Festival, the factory has a load reduction plan, and the demand for dimethyl ether may decrease; Downstream acetic acid: Henan Yongcheng Longyu continues to shut down, other units operate normally, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream formaldehyde: Shandong, Guangxi, Jiangsu, Henan and Hebei are expected to store, park and leave the internal formaldehyde separation devices, while the remaining small amount of formaldehyde devices are expected to store and reduce formaldehyde, and the demand for formaldehyde may decrease. Methanol demand surface is negative.

For the supply side, only one unit in Yunnan is planned to be overhauled in January, involving a total capacity of 260000 tons/year. In December, a total of 6 units are expected to be restored, involving a production capacity of 2.61 million tons/year. Therefore, the output in January is expected to increase to 7,012,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate may increase to 75.72%. The operating rate of the unit is relatively high, and the methanol supply is not profitable.

In terms of external market, as of December 29, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 364.00-365.00 dollars/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 107.75-108.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 321.00-322.00 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Ups and downs

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 364.00-365.00 USD/ton./0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ American Gulf/ 107.75-108.75 cents/gallon./0 cents/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 321.00-322.00 EUR/ton./0 EUR/ton

It is predicted that methanol cost will support or weaken, supply will be abundant and demand will decrease. Methanol analysts from the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may suffer from shock.