1、 Price trend

The price of aniline has been cut twice this month, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On the first day, the price of aniline was 4800 yuan / ton, down to 4600 yuan / ton on May 6; then it went down to 4466.67 yuan / ton from large-scale stable operation to small-scale operation on May 21; and it continued to operate stably and weakly. On May 1, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 4800-5020 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 4800-4890 yuan / ton; on May 31, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 4600-4820 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton. Aniline prices fell 333.33 yuan / ton this month, down 6.94% in the month.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Raw materials: on May 1, the price of pure benzene was 2750-3400 yuan / ton (average price 3020 yuan / ton), and on May 31, the price of pure benzene was 3450-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3600 yuan / ton), up 580 yuan / ton from May 1, up 19.21% this month. In June, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene five times, with a total increase of 700 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. But at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price.

Nitric acid: prices stabilized after falling on May 7. The price of nitric acid in East China was 1466.67 yuan / ton on May 1, 1433.33 yuan / ton on May 31, down 33.34 yuan / ton this month, down 2.27%.

2. Product: this month, aniline basically maintained stable and weak operation, with two significant price reductions. In addition to the two declines, the rest maintained a weak and stable trend, with prices largely stable and moving slightly. The operating rate of downstream auxiliary of aniline is still low, and the lack of demand drags the decline of aniline; MDI procurement is mostly contract, which is difficult to support the demand of aniline.

3、 Future forecast

1. In terms of raw materials: it is heard that the turnover of pure benzene is 3600 yuan / ton in May, 3680-3700 yuan / ton in June, 3760 yuan / ton in July and 3800 yuan / ton in August. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has increased, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, or the pure benzene market has been affected. In the long run, the market price of pure benzene will continue to rise, but the short-term oscillation still exists.

Foreign public health events began to improve, the blockade measures were gradually relaxed, and automobile transportation began to recover. However, the demand for aniline has not been significantly increased in the short term.

It is expected that aniline will maintain a weak and stable trend in the short term and wait for the rebound opportunity.