This month, the domestic polysilicon market continued the decline in April, and the price continued to bottom, but the decline slowed down slightly, and the price bottomed out slightly at the end of the month picked up. This is also the first time that polysilicon has ended its 9-week decline. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the overall decline of polysilicon in the whole month was – 3.40%, which was significantly narrowed compared with the decline (- 15.9%) in April.

The main reason for the decline of polysilicon market this month is that the manufacturer took the initiative to reduce the price in the first half of May, which brought bad market. Moreover, the price of imported silicon materials has hit the domestic market with a new low one after another. According to statistics, in May, the price of polycrystalline silicon in non China fell by about 5000 yuan / ton. However, the root cause is still at the demand side. In the context of the epidemic, the demand for downstream procurement further shrank, and the export orders of components significantly shrank. According to statistics, the total export volume of components fell by – 18.3% month on month in April, and the export is expected to be even less optimistic in May. Therefore, the market price of polysilicon is still at the bottom this month, and the price of new orders in the market has dropped a lot.

From both sides of supply and demand, first of all, the supply of polysilicon is still abundant in May. Although affected by the inventory pressure and the sluggish downstream procurement, the number of maintenance manufacturers has been increasing. As of May 29, the number of domestic polysilicon maintenance and load reduction manufacturers has increased from 2 in April to 5. It is expected that there will still be two maintenance plans in the later stage, but the accumulated inventory in the early stage has made the enterprise always At present, it is still at the end of the de stocking cycle. In addition, from the perspective of polysilicon import end, the polysilicon import volume is still at a low level this month. According to statistics, the polysilicon import volume in April was about 8000 tons, down 28% on a month on month basis, down 34% on a year-on-year basis. It can be seen that the pressure from external sources is not large, and the current supply pressure is mainly from domestic sources. According to the situation of manufacturers, the signing of orders by manufacturers has declined compared with the past, and they are mainly signed in June. In addition, affected by the increase of transportation cost caused by high-speed charging, the profit of manufacturers is further squeezed, and the delivery speed of manufacturers is further reduced. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main domestic transaction price of polysilicon with the model of primary solar material is 38000-42000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of demand, the terminal demand is still weak, especially the external demand continues to decline. Affected by the overseas epidemic, the global terminal installation is blocked, and the overseas orders of the domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, resulting in the operation rate of the domestic component manufacturers gradually reduced, which is transmitted to the silicon part of the upstream industrial chain, especially at present, the epidemic in India is becoming more and more serious, as the main polysilicon in China In the export area, the polycrystalline demand in this area has declined significantly, which has greatly affected the export. The production time of new single crystal production capacity can only be delayed, and domestic production remains stable. At present, there is no release of new production capacity, which also alleviates the pressure brought by the supply side to some extent. This is also an important reason for the narrower price drop this month. On the other hand, the European and American markets are not optimistic. Orders for downstream components have also been cancelled or delayed. The reduction of orders has led to the price bottoming again and again, which has been transmitted to the upstream silicon industry, forcing enterprises to reduce prices for shipment.

In the later stage, the business club believes that the polysilicon supply is still in excess at present, but in the later stage, with more and more enterprise maintenance, the polysilicon inventory removal cycle will come to an end, and the supply pressure in the later stage may be resolved. However, the problem of demand side is expected to be difficult to solve in the short term, mainly because the overseas epidemic trend has not been effectively controlled, especially in India. The demand for China’s photovoltaic products is shrinking, the price of orders is shrinking, and the overseas anti-dumping efforts against China’s photovoltaic products are increasing. The export situation in the short term is still not optimistic. It is expected that the price of silicon materials will remain under pressure in the near future Considering that the price of polysilicon will be increased tentatively by the end of the month, it is expected that polysilicon will be stabilized at the end of the month.