In May 2020, the ethanol market rose first and then stabilized. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of the ethanol market at the beginning of the month was 5587 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of the domestic ethanol market was 5775 yuan / ton, up 3.36% in the month, up 9.38% compared with the same period last year.

This month, the impact of upstream corn on ethanol production enterprises is obvious, with most regions rising first and then falling. At the beginning of the month, the price of enterprises in the ethanol market in Shandong Province was raised, and then the export order was weakened, and the market went down. At the end of the month, the downstream maintained rigid demand, and the price of ethanol market was stable. In East China, the price of ethanol market was up and down, and the price of anhydrous alcohol was down at the beginning of the month, and the price of enterprises was up due to the rise of surrounding areas. However, in the later period, some enterprises had a positive attitude of shipping, and the ethanol market was sorted out At the beginning of the month, the ethanol market in the district went up, the price of corn raw materials was high, the price of large factories was raised, the inventory was low, and the price of small factories was low. Later, the market was stable due to the imminent storage and auction.

In terms of logistics, the price of logistics in this month is stable, 350-400 yuan / ton from Heilongjiang to Shandong. In the early ten days of this month, under the influence of the epidemic situation in Jilin area, the delivery is affected. In the late ten days of this month, the epidemic situation in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang is serious, 230-240 yuan / ton from Henan to Hubei, and 250 yuan / ton from Henan to Anhui. The shipping price has not changed much, but the shipment performance is slow this month, and it needs to wait about a week.

In terms of raw materials, corn: the price of corn in China has stabilized as a whole. In the face of market support, the high premium and high transaction Bureau of temporary storage corn auction has great strength, which also reflects the market demand for temporary storage corn. In the short term, the price of corn may be supported. At the same time, we should continue to pay attention to the later auctions.

Ethyl acetate: in May, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose first and then fell, with a shock range of 200 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, the market of raw materials acetic acid and ethanol continued to rise, which gave strong support to the cost of ethyl acetate, and the downstream replenishment was relatively active after the May Day holiday, which promoted the market transaction to go higher. Later, the downstream entered the stage of centralized digestion. New orders in the market were insufficient, and some suppliers’ inventory was accumulated. However, raw acetic acid was still rising sharply, and ethyl acetate suppliers continued to follow, but the overall increase was limited. At the same time, the South China market began to decline after the rise. The local supply was sufficient. The downstream purchase of ethyl acetate was limited and the digestion cycle was long. The market was continuously weak. Under the resistance of some suppliers, the South China market started a new round of decline. In the middle of the year, the market of ethyl acetate in the market was gradually weak, and the inventory of mainstream manufacturers was constantly accumulating. However, at that time, the raw materials acetic acid and ethanol were high and strong, and ethyl acetate was forced to lose money and compete for shipment. Near the end of the month, jinyimeng ethyl acetate plant was shut down, which slightly eased the market decline. However, the market supply and demand deviation was large, the inventory quantity of mainstream suppliers was still accumulating, and the decline continued in a passive stage.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 47 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 31 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were ethylene (69.89%), trichloromethane (67.86%) and crude benzene (24.52%). There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

3、 Future forecast

The auction price of raw material corn remains high, the price sent to the enterprise is high, the production pressure of the enterprise is high, the inventory of the enterprise is low, the order delivery is continuous, the short-term enterprise will remain high, the price of cassava raw materials continues to rise, at present, the raw materials of the enterprise to the port are mostly purchased in the early stage, the price does not reach the ultra-high position, the enterprise maintains normal production, but The traditional demand for tourism has entered the off-season, and the overall demand is weak. The price of goods sent to the northeast also remains high. The ethanol analysts of the business agency predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be dominated by consolidation.