According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 1st to 28th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first fell from 2155 yuan/ton and then rose to 2115 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.86% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 7.42%, and a year-on-year decline of 22.67%.

In November, the domestic methanol market showed an overall trend of first suppression and then rebound. The port market continues to face high inventory pressure, and the high supply pattern continues to suppress prices. During this period, the demand for imported goods has increased, and inventory is still accumulating. Moreover, due to factors such as reverse flow of goods, the supply-demand contradiction in the market has always existed, leading to an overall downward fluctuation in prices. At the end of the month, boosted by news of limited overseas natural gas supply, overseas facilities were gradually shut down, leading to a possible peak in port inventories. The port market prices stopped falling and rebounded, ending the previous downward trend.
As of the close on November 28th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2115 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2138 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2113 yuan/ton. It closed at 2135 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.85% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 942920, the position is 1048516, and the daily increase is 56142.
On the cost side, the imported thermal coal market showed relatively active performance in November, with coal prices continuing to operate in a stable to strong trend. Market quotations have all been raised, and the sentiment has improved. Imported coal prices still have a significant advantage compared to domestic coal prices, thereby supporting market activity. With foreign mines closely monitoring changes in the domestic market and the rising market sentiment, foreign mine quotations continue to remain firm. The seasonal cooling has led to an increase in terminal inventory replenishment enthusiasm, and coupled with the tight supply from production areas at the end of the year, most importers have strong market expectations, resulting in significant support for coal prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, there is significant pressure on the demand side, with significant price drops in downstream secondary and tertiary markets in recent times, leading to severe profit losses for most industries and significant constraints on the enthusiasm and actual demand for methanol procurement. The expected reduction in demand in November will be mainly reflected in the MTO industry, which is the core downstream consumer sector of methanol. The impact of its demand contraction on the market is particularly critical. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the planned maintenance and reduction of methanol production facilities will decrease, while the number of recovery facilities will increase, resulting in an overall increase in market supply. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on November 28th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at 316.5-317.5 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market is closed due to public holidays; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 259.5-260.5 euros/ton, up 4 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, in addition to the gradual seasonal shutdown of some gas pipelines in Sichuan and Chongqing, it is still necessary to closely monitor the temperature in Iran and the actual impact of the shutdown of methanol projects. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the fluctuations in the domestic methanol spot market are limited.