According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic toluene market experienced a slight rebound after a volatile downward trend in December 2025, indicating a weak overall trend. From December 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price fluctuated from 5330 yuan/ton to 5160 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 3.19% during the period. The overall operating range was lower than November, mainly affected by the weak supply and demand and insufficient cost support.

In the first half of the month, the domestic toluene market began a volatile downward trend. As a core production area, Shandong’s main refineries were the first to lower their prices. On the 16th, the mainstream local price range fell to 5020-5050 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 300 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; The East China region is weakening synchronously, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious, lacking substantial positive factors to boost, and the focus of negotiations is gradually shifting downwards.
Late period: The market fluctuated within a certain range, with prices in East and South China temporarily increasing. However, weak terminal demand constrained the rebound space, and the pattern of weak supply and demand in the market remained unchanged. Refineries actively shipped and controlled inventory, but downstream responses were flat, maintaining overall weak stability and volatility.
Cost wise: In December 2025, the domestic crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend, with narrow fluctuations in the first half of the year. The news of OPEC’s slight increase in production in December and the suspension of production in the first quarter of 2026 briefly boosted market sentiment, but failed to reverse the loose pattern. Domestic port commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.67% month on month, and supply pressure began to emerge. After mid month, concerns about global crude oil oversupply intensified, with Brent crude falling below $60 per barrel, driving the domestic market to follow suit. Although geopolitical events such as the escalation of US sanctions on Venezuela triggered a short-term rebound during this period, it was difficult to change the trend. As the end of the year approaches in the latter half of the year, market trading activity has decreased under the pressure of capital recovery. The operating rate of domestic main refineries is sluggish, and the weak trend of terminal demand has not changed, further suppressing oil prices and presenting a fundamental driven downward trend throughout the process. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the February WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.08 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February was $61.94 per barrel, an increase of $1.30 or 2.1%.
Demand side: Downstream on-demand procurement shows overall weakness
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 30th, Sinopec Sales Company has implemented a price of 7000 yuan/ton, and the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China have uniformly implemented this price; The main facilities of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, and the sales of products are normal. The current price has increased by 150 yuan/ton compared to November 28th.
In terms of international markets, as of December 29th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $867-869/ton FOB Korea and $892-894/ton CFR China, an increase of $66/ton from November 27th.
The domestic oil and chemical industry continues to adopt the strategy of replenishing inventory according to demand, with low purchasing enthusiasm and no centralized replenishment behavior, which has limited effect on driving prices. The xylene (PX) market has become the main bearish factor, with significant fluctuations in the December contract price of PX in Zhengzhou commodity trading in the latter half of the year. The closing price on the 29th was 7208 yuan/ton, which fell from the mid month high, and the mixed xylene price was under pressure and weakened due to cost transmission.

Market forecast: Currently, the domestic toluene market is in a weak balance of bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, the rebound in international crude oil prices provides some cost support, limiting the downward space for toluene; On the other hand, the off-season characteristics of downstream demand are obvious, and the pattern of weak supply and demand is difficult to change in the short term, resulting in a lack of substantial market benefits. Overall, the toluene market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile operating pattern in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on the trend of crude oil prices and the improvement of downstream demand.