This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market did not continue the upward trend of last week, and the market mainly stopped rising and fell back. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province fell by 0.92% this week (12.15-19). The main reason is the stable amount of ammonia, which affects the supply and sales due to rain and snow weather in the north. In addition, local environmental inspections have affected demand, coupled with the recovery of supply in Henan. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2400-2600 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the supply remained reasonably balanced this week, with no decrease in liquid ammonia production in Shandong and Hebei regions, and an increase in supply due to the resumption of production by enterprises in Henan region. Due to the impact of snow in Shanxi and other regions, transportation is restricted, resulting in the accumulation of inventory in enterprise warehouses. At the beginning of the week, the market was relatively stable. Some companies in the northern region made downward adjustments from mid week to the weekend, but the magnitude was not significant. Large factories in Shandong generally adjusted prices between 50-100 yuan. The market showed a basic balance between supply and demand, but companies still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage, and supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown lukewarm performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level. In some downstream areas, phosphate fertilizer enterprises are affected by environmental protection, resulting in a continuous decline in operating rates and relatively weak demand. Recently, the shipment volume of urea has been stable, and the price has slightly rebounded within the week. However, the price has not continued to rise near the weekend. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase of urea is 1.46%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to continue next week, although there may be a slight decline in production in some areas in the short term. Due to future weather conditions, transportation difficulties may increase, and there may still be supply risks in the market. Combined with the current off-season for agricultural demand, the market for feed ammonia may not improve, and the future market will mainly maintain range fluctuations.