According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride with o-phthalic acid method increased significantly in September. Up to now, the price of phthalic anhydride with o-phthalic acid method has been quoted at 9600 yuan/ton, 10.03% higher than the price of 8725 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 35.69% higher than the same period last year, and the market price of phthalic anhydride on the market has increased significantly.

On the one hand, due to the tight supply of phthalic anhydride in the field, the commencement of some units in the field is not stable, and the supply of goods has been limited to a certain extent. The phthalic anhydride operation rate is about 50%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, and the price of phthalic anhydride in the field is rising. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is 9600-9800 yuan/ton in the source negotiation with neighboring France, and the main price of naphthalene is 9400-9500 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 9500-9600 yuan/ton.

On the other hand, it is the price support of upstream and downstream products. According to the manufacturer’s reaction, the supply of raw materials ortho benzene is tight in the near future, the phthalic anhydride manufacturers have difficulty in purchasing, the ortho benzene manufacturers have insufficient enthusiasm to start work, and the factory has stopped production for more maintenance. The 160000 t/a ortho benzene unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. began to reduce its load gradually at the end of August and is expected to be overhauled for 3 months; Fuhaichuang 240000 t/a o-benzene plant has been shut down since the end of June; The 40000 t/a phthalic acid plant of Luoyang Petrochemical stopped production. In addition, the import volume of phthalic acid is not large, and the inventory of main ports has dropped to 8000 tons. The shortage of phthalic acid supplies has led to the shortage of raw materials for phthalic anhydride manufacturers, limiting their production. In addition, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen significantly, supported by favorable factors, and the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply.

Finally, the downstream DOP market price has risen, the plasticizer industry has improved, and the terminal downstream market is undoubtedly a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. The phthalic anhydride market price continues to rise.

Industrial chain: The price of domestic ortho benzene is rising, and the market price is 8600 yuan/ton. The rising price of domestic ortho benzene is affected by the cost support of the phthalic anhydride market. Recently, the import of ortho benzene is almost non-existent, and the supply of port ortho benzene continues to shrink, which affects the domestic phthalic anhydride market to rise. The downstream DOP market price of phthalic anhydride is rising. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10187.5 yuan/ton, and the on-site DOP enterprises have increased their demand for phthalic anhydride. The mainstream DOP price is 10100-10300 yuan/ton. The rising upstream and downstream market is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the on-site phthalic anhydride price has risen significantly.

In general, in the near future, the port’s ortho xylene inventory is still in storage, domestic ortho xylene manufacturers have carried out more maintenance, and the short-term supply of ortho xylene continues to be tight. In addition, the downstream plasticizer industry has improved, and the actual demand has increased. The production of phthalic anhydride on the site is limited by raw materials, and the supply of goods is tight, which affects the market price of phthalic anhydride in the future or there is still room for improvement in many aspects.

The domestic cobalt price fell again in September

It can be seen from the weekly histogram of cobalt price trend that the trend of cobalt price is weak. In addition to the temporary rise of cobalt price in August, the cobalt price continues to fall. At the end of August, the cobalt price fell rapidly, and the decline continued to September. Jinjiu did not bring good news to the cobalt market in September, and the cobalt price remained weak in September.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 13, the cobalt price was 346000 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from 350500 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with the highest cobalt price of 357400 yuan/ton in August, it dropped by 3.25%. The cobalt market was still weak in September. After the cobalt price rose briefly in August, the cobalt price fell rapidly in September.

The rise of international cobalt price slowed down in September

It can be seen from the trend chart of MB and LME cobalt prices that the trend of MB and LME cobalt prices in September failed to continue the trend of August. The rise of international cobalt prices slowed down in September, and the cobalt market became stable.

Strong demand of new energy market

According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in August reached a new record year on year. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 691000 units and 666000 units respectively, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record high. The production and sales increased 1.2 times and 1 times respectively year-on-year. Under the continuous effect of the central and local governments’ policies to stabilize the economy and promote consumption, and with the arrival of the traditional golden consumption season, the problem of power shortage has eased, passenger cars will still show a rapid growth in the coming months, new energy vehicles will continue to develop well, and the consumption of new energy vehicles will drive the demand of cobalt market to rise.

According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in August, China’s power battery output totaled 50.1GWh, up 157.0% year on year and 6.0% month on month. Among them, the ternary battery output was 19.3kWh, accounting for 38.4% of the total output, up 130.1% year on year and 16.1% month on month; In terms of vehicle loading, in August, the power battery loading in China was 27.8GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 121.0% and a month on month growth of 14.7%, of which the ternary battery loading was 10.5GWh, accounting for 37.9% of the total vehicle loading, with a year-on-year growth of 97.1% and a month on month growth of 7.0%. In August, the output of ternary battery increased steadily and reached a new monthly high. In August, the demand of cobalt market was strong; With the growth of sales of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of ternary batteries recovered in August, but it still did not reach the highest installed capacity in June. The demand growth of cobalt market was less than expected, and the cobalt price has the power to rise, but the power to continue to rise is insufficient.

Mobile phone market demand declines

According to the latest data report released by IDC, it is predicted that the smartphone shipments will decline by 6.5% to 1.27 billion units in 2022. The most significant drop in sales is in China, which is currently expected to decline by 12.5%, about 41 million units, accounting for nearly half of this year’s total sales decline. According to the data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications, from January to July 2022, the overall shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 156 million, down 23.0% year on year. The sharp drop in mobile phone consumption has had a fatal impact on the demand of the cobalt market. The demand of the cobalt market has declined significantly, and the downward pressure on the cobalt price is great.

Future outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst from the business community, believes that the cobalt price stopped falling and rose in August, stimulated by the news of stock collection, but failed to continue its strong performance in September. The lower demand in the cobalt market than expected is the main reason why the cobalt price fell. The production of new energy vehicles still maintained a high year-on-year growth, but the chain growth was limited; The output of ternary batteries in August hit a historical record, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries was less than that in June, the demand for ternary batteries was less than expected, and the rise in cobalt prices in September was not supported enough; The sharp drop in mobile phone sales is the main reason for the decline in demand in cobalt market. In the future, new mobile phone products have been released in September and shopping festivals such as the Double 11th Festival have stimulated consumption. Mobile phone sales are expected to rise, cobalt market demand is expected to recover, and cobalt prices have a certain upward momentum. However, the short-term consumption stimulus is difficult to fundamentally change the supply and demand balance of the cobalt market. The continuous rise of the cobalt price is not supported enough. It is expected that the cobalt price will rise slightly in the future.

Price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of the 9th, the average price in the domestic market was 25233.33 yuan/ton, down 4.18% from the beginning of the week. Since September, the magnesium price has been in a slow downward trend, and the magnesium market has become active before the festival. Some replenishment orders have been purchased in the market, and the price of magnesium ingots has rebounded slightly.

Supply and demand

In terms of factories, since the high level of magnesium ingots was corrected at the beginning of the month, the price has dropped by about 1500-2000 yuan/ton. The magnesium price has returned to the middle level, and the magnesium factories have further weakened their willingness to make concessions. In terms of demand, the market was relatively flat in the early stage, and the supply and demand sides were locked in a stalemate game. With the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, downstream procurement increased, foreign orders were released, and market confidence was restored.

Upstream and downstream

This week, the ferrosilicon market operated in shock, the spot market was weak, the futures disk rose at the end of the week, and the bidding price at the steel plant end was difficult to set. In the short term, the ferrosilicon price remained stable.

The first round of increase and decrease in the coke market was implemented, with a decrease of 100-110 yuan/ton. The operating rate of coking enterprises remained stable this week. Due to the lack of active downstream procurement in the near future, the inventory of some coke enterprises increased slightly. In the future, the business community believes that the overall negative factors in the coke market are dominant, and the market has raised and lowered its expectations again. At present, most coke enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the coke market will mainly operate in a weak and stable manner in the short term,

Future forecast

In general, the magnesium market ushered in a short-term release of demand before the holiday, and the low price range of magnesium prices rose. However, in view of the weak demand side as a whole, there is little room for further recovery. Analysts from the business community believe that the magnesium market is expected to run steadily in the short term.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic sulfuric acid market price has dropped significantly this week. The sulfuric acid price has dropped from 348.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 244.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 29.89%, a year-on-year decrease of 68.92% over the same period of last year. On September 4, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 37.98, which was the same as yesterday, down 79.81% from the highest point 188.07 (April 13, 2022) in the cycle, and up 20.49% from the lowest point 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The market in the upper reaches was consolidated at a low level, and the enthusiasm for purchasing in the lower reaches was weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic sulfuric acid mainstream manufacturers fell sharply this week, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand weakened.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market fell slightly. The sulfur price fell from 1170.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 1163.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.57%, a year-on-year decrease of 39.41% over the same period of last year. The upstream market fell slightly, and the cost support was general. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market fell slightly, and the market price fell from 10780.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10540.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.23%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.32% compared with the same period of last year. The downstream titanium dioxide market was consolidated at a low level, with a market price of 17500.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93% over the same period last year. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened.

The market fell slightly in the afternoon

In the first ten days of September, the domestic sulfuric acid market mainly fell slightly. The upstream sulfur market has declined slightly recently, and the cost support is general. The market prices of downstream hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate declined slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for purchasing sulfuric acid weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business club believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market, the market price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate and fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the market price of isobutyraldehyde in China rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 7166.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7733.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 7.91%. On September 4, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.76, which was the same as yesterday, down 62.34% from the highest point 105.58 in the cycle (September 16, 2021), and up 17.49% from the lowest point 33.84 on August 7, 2022. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of isobutyraldehyde mainstream manufacturers increased slightly.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 6920.60 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7040.60 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.73%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol decreased slightly, with the price falling from 10000.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9966.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.33%. The market price of neopentyl glycol declined slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

In early September, the market trend of isobutyraldehyde mainly rose slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, and cost support strengthened. The downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business club believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand and raw materials in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business club, the rise of the PC market this week weakened, and the rise of spot prices of various brands was blocked. As of September 2, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 17233.33 yuan / ton, up or down by + 1.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the market of bisphenol A has kept rising gradually recently. In last month, there were many maintenance devices, the domestic supply decreased, the import supply was generally replenished, the external price rose, and the confidence of merchants was strengthened. In addition, domestic manufacturers have increased the ex factory price for many times, and the commodity holders have followed the upward trend. With the participation of downstream epoxy plants and intermediate traders also improving, it is predicted that bisphenol A may continue to run stronger.

This week, the market of bisphenol A has kept rising gradually. In addition, the international crude oil in the far upstream has recently returned, and the pressure on the cost side of PC continues to strengthen. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises fell by a narrow margin this week, and is still below 70%. The on-site supply of goods in the industry remains abundant, and the pressure on the supply side continues. Downstream demand is still in a weak pattern. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is further restricted by factors such as previous power restrictions and high temperatures. Combined with the decline in acceptance after the rise of PC, the stock preparation operation is biased towards just maintaining production and buying at a bargain. Although the profits of manufacturers are poor, due to the gradually obvious cost pressure and the high ex factory price, the merchants follow the market, and the actual transactions are mostly scattered small orders.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic PC market has narrowed this week, the upstream BPA market continues to rise, and the cost side continues to put pressure on PC. On the supply side, there are abundant on-site goods, while the demand side is weak. Buyers have a poor acceptance of the rising price and a heavy wait-and-see mentality. At present, the pressure of raw materials in the market and the contradiction between supply and demand are competing with each other. It is expected that in the short term, the rise of PC spot price may be blocked and the operation will be frozen.

In August, the domestic BDO market reached a “new low”. Many manufacturers stabilized their prices and supported the market. At the same time, they reduced the operating rate of devices and reduced the supply, but the effect was very little. The main reason was that the demand was low, the number of orders was small, and the downstream enterprises’ devices were underoperated. The BDO market reached a “new low” since the beginning of 2022, which was also the longest decline in the past three years.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 12420 yuan / ton at the beginning of August. As of August 30, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 10175 yuan / ton, with a drop of 18.08% in the month and a year-on-year drop of 63.61%. According to the latest market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China is 9900-10100 yuan / ton, and the barrel negotiation is 12500-13500 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery). The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 10000-10200 yuan / ton, and the barrel negotiation is 12500-13500 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), there were 136 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, which were concentrated in the chemical industry sector (64 kinds in total) and the agricultural and sideline sectors (16 kinds in total). The commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The top three commodities with growth were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities declined month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The top three commodities with declines were electrolytic manganese (- 57.47%), magnesium (- 46.60%), and glycine (- 45.71%). The average increase / decrease in this half year was 6.53%.

Some enterprises announced the settlement price in August and the listing price in September:

At the beginning of September, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, and some enterprises announced low auction prices and a small number of transactions. Most of the production enterprises have overhauled their devices and replaced their catalysts. They strive to maintain the price and stabilize the market, but the effect is not great. The operating rate of downstream products is generally low and the demand is low, which will still restrict the BDO market in the near future.

In mid September, the domestic BDO market fell at a low level, and some manufacturers suspended sales. However, the overall performance of the downstream industry is still average, mainly waiting and waiting, and a small number of just needed purchases suppress the BDO market trend.

At the end of September, the domestic BDO market stopped falling and was consolidated. The market was stable after the fall. The production enterprises supported the price to maintain the market, but the downstream demand was generally general. The production enterprises took a number of measures: reducing the operating rate of the device and the bidding price slightly higher than the market price, which had the effect of stopping the fall.

At the end of the month, the domestic BDO market was sorted out and watched. There was no obvious fluctuation in the quotations of manufacturers. Some manufacturers announced high-level settlement prices and new moon listing prices, which still showed obvious intention to support the market by maintaining prices. Traders’ quotations were slightly stable. The unit operation rate of downstream production enterprises is not high, mainly based on just needed purchase, and the overall performance of the demand side is not good.

On the upstream side, in terms of methanol, the supply or increase, the demand is expected to increase synchronously, and the short-term methanol market is dominated by shock consolidation. BDO’s cost level is generally supported. Raw material calcium carbide: the calcium carbide market is expected to rebound from the low level. With the increase of demand, the price increases, and the commencement rate also increases.

In terms of downstream products, some terminal demands were not followed up enough, and the commencement of downstream industries fell, especially in PTMEG industry. The shipment was under pressure and the price fell. Other downstream companies also maintain small orders that are just needed to follow up. Although PBAT’s new production capacity is purchased in the market, its resistance to high prices still exists.

Some enterprises are still overhauling, the market supply continues to decrease, and the production enterprises still maintain a price defense mentality. However, the demand increment at the downstream end is not obvious, and it mainly maintains the follow-up of just needed orders, which suppresses the market trend. Analysts of BDO business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will be mainly sorted out at a low level.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the spot market price of PVC SG5 fell in August. On August 1, the average price of domestic PVC was 6775.71 yuan / ton, and on August 31, the average price was 6467.14 yuan / ton. The price fell by 4.55% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

In August, the market price of PVC carbide SG5 fluctuated, and the overall trend was mainly downward. In the first ten days of August, the price of PVC market mainly fluctuated and fell, the market was relatively light, and the traders’ enthusiasm for taking goods was not high. In the middle of August, the price continued to fall, due to the release of real estate data from January to July. Most of the data fell. Affected by this, the confidence of PVC market was obviously insufficient, the market situation weakened, and the sales of goods holders were under pressure. Since the end of August, the price of PVC futures market has risen first, and the spot market has followed up with the improvement. The traders’ enthusiasm for taking goods has been improved, and the order receiving is more active. The market transaction atmosphere is acceptable. At the low of the month, the futures price fell, the spot center of gravity fell, and the price decreased slightly. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc-5 electric stone is mostly around 6050-6600 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, on August 30, international crude oil futures fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $91.64/barrel, down US $5.37 or 5.5%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $97.84/barrel, down US $5.09 or 4.9%. As OPEC’s second largest crude oil exporter, the turmoil in Iraq has not affected crude oil exports, and it is rumored that Iran’s nuclear agreement is expected to be reached. In addition, the market is generally worried that in order to combat inflation, the global central bank’s interest rate increase will lead to economic recession, which will then affect fuel demand and put pressure on oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this month has experienced ups and downs. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China first increased from 3900.00 yuan / ton on August 1 to 4050.00 yuan / ton on August 8, an increase of 3.85%. Then, the falling mode was started, and it fell to 3600.00 yuan / ton on August 24, down 11.11%. At the end of last month, there was a slight increase of 2.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 32.11% compared with the same period of last year. From the upstream and downstream market conditions, the price of blue carbon in the upstream of calcium carbide is temporarily stable this month. This month, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in the middle and early September, mainly through consolidation.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business club believe that the current PVC futures market has fallen slightly, affecting the confidence of the spot market and the transaction status of the spot market is poor. At present, the “golden nine silver ten” real estate completion cycle is approaching, and it is expected that the demand in September will be improved to a certain extent. In the short term, the PVC market is still dominated by range fluctuation.