1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the spot market price of PVC SG5 fell in August. On August 1, the average price of domestic PVC was 6775.71 yuan / ton, and on August 31, the average price was 6467.14 yuan / ton. The price fell by 4.55% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

In August, the market price of PVC carbide SG5 fluctuated, and the overall trend was mainly downward. In the first ten days of August, the price of PVC market mainly fluctuated and fell, the market was relatively light, and the traders’ enthusiasm for taking goods was not high. In the middle of August, the price continued to fall, due to the release of real estate data from January to July. Most of the data fell. Affected by this, the confidence of PVC market was obviously insufficient, the market situation weakened, and the sales of goods holders were under pressure. Since the end of August, the price of PVC futures market has risen first, and the spot market has followed up with the improvement. The traders’ enthusiasm for taking goods has been improved, and the order receiving is more active. The market transaction atmosphere is acceptable. At the low of the month, the futures price fell, the spot center of gravity fell, and the price decreased slightly. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc-5 electric stone is mostly around 6050-6600 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, on August 30, international crude oil futures fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $91.64/barrel, down US $5.37 or 5.5%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $97.84/barrel, down US $5.09 or 4.9%. As OPEC’s second largest crude oil exporter, the turmoil in Iraq has not affected crude oil exports, and it is rumored that Iran’s nuclear agreement is expected to be reached. In addition, the market is generally worried that in order to combat inflation, the global central bank’s interest rate increase will lead to economic recession, which will then affect fuel demand and put pressure on oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this month has experienced ups and downs. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China first increased from 3900.00 yuan / ton on August 1 to 4050.00 yuan / ton on August 8, an increase of 3.85%. Then, the falling mode was started, and it fell to 3600.00 yuan / ton on August 24, down 11.11%. At the end of last month, there was a slight increase of 2.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 32.11% compared with the same period of last year. From the upstream and downstream market conditions, the price of blue carbon in the upstream of calcium carbide is temporarily stable this month. This month, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in the middle and early September, mainly through consolidation.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business club believe that the current PVC futures market has fallen slightly, affecting the confidence of the spot market and the transaction status of the spot market is poor. At present, the “golden nine silver ten” real estate completion cycle is approaching, and it is expected that the demand in September will be improved to a certain extent. In the short term, the PVC market is still dominated by range fluctuation.