The domestic cobalt price fell again in September
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It can be seen from the weekly histogram of cobalt price trend that the trend of cobalt price is weak. In addition to the temporary rise of cobalt price in August, the cobalt price continues to fall. At the end of August, the cobalt price fell rapidly, and the decline continued to September. Jinjiu did not bring good news to the cobalt market in September, and the cobalt price remained weak in September.
According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 13, the cobalt price was 346000 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from 350500 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with the highest cobalt price of 357400 yuan/ton in August, it dropped by 3.25%. The cobalt market was still weak in September. After the cobalt price rose briefly in August, the cobalt price fell rapidly in September.
The rise of international cobalt price slowed down in September
It can be seen from the trend chart of MB and LME cobalt prices that the trend of MB and LME cobalt prices in September failed to continue the trend of August. The rise of international cobalt prices slowed down in September, and the cobalt market became stable.
Strong demand of new energy market
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in August reached a new record year on year. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 691000 units and 666000 units respectively, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record high. The production and sales increased 1.2 times and 1 times respectively year-on-year. Under the continuous effect of the central and local governments’ policies to stabilize the economy and promote consumption, and with the arrival of the traditional golden consumption season, the problem of power shortage has eased, passenger cars will still show a rapid growth in the coming months, new energy vehicles will continue to develop well, and the consumption of new energy vehicles will drive the demand of cobalt market to rise.
According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in August, China’s power battery output totaled 50.1GWh, up 157.0% year on year and 6.0% month on month. Among them, the ternary battery output was 19.3kWh, accounting for 38.4% of the total output, up 130.1% year on year and 16.1% month on month; In terms of vehicle loading, in August, the power battery loading in China was 27.8GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 121.0% and a month on month growth of 14.7%, of which the ternary battery loading was 10.5GWh, accounting for 37.9% of the total vehicle loading, with a year-on-year growth of 97.1% and a month on month growth of 7.0%. In August, the output of ternary battery increased steadily and reached a new monthly high. In August, the demand of cobalt market was strong; With the growth of sales of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of ternary batteries recovered in August, but it still did not reach the highest installed capacity in June. The demand growth of cobalt market was less than expected, and the cobalt price has the power to rise, but the power to continue to rise is insufficient.
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Mobile phone market demand declines
According to the latest data report released by IDC, it is predicted that the smartphone shipments will decline by 6.5% to 1.27 billion units in 2022. The most significant drop in sales is in China, which is currently expected to decline by 12.5%, about 41 million units, accounting for nearly half of this year’s total sales decline. According to the data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications, from January to July 2022, the overall shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 156 million, down 23.0% year on year. The sharp drop in mobile phone consumption has had a fatal impact on the demand of the cobalt market. The demand of the cobalt market has declined significantly, and the downward pressure on the cobalt price is great.
Future outlook
Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst from the business community, believes that the cobalt price stopped falling and rose in August, stimulated by the news of stock collection, but failed to continue its strong performance in September. The lower demand in the cobalt market than expected is the main reason why the cobalt price fell. The production of new energy vehicles still maintained a high year-on-year growth, but the chain growth was limited; The output of ternary batteries in August hit a historical record, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries was less than that in June, the demand for ternary batteries was less than expected, and the rise in cobalt prices in September was not supported enough; The sharp drop in mobile phone sales is the main reason for the decline in demand in cobalt market. In the future, new mobile phone products have been released in September and shopping festivals such as the Double 11th Festival have stimulated consumption. Mobile phone sales are expected to rise, cobalt market demand is expected to recover, and cobalt prices have a certain upward momentum. However, the short-term consumption stimulus is difficult to fundamentally change the supply and demand balance of the cobalt market. The continuous rise of the cobalt price is not supported enough. It is expected that the cobalt price will rise slightly in the future.
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