In August, the domestic BDO market reached a “new low”. Many manufacturers stabilized their prices and supported the market. At the same time, they reduced the operating rate of devices and reduced the supply, but the effect was very little. The main reason was that the demand was low, the number of orders was small, and the downstream enterprises’ devices were underoperated. The BDO market reached a “new low” since the beginning of 2022, which was also the longest decline in the past three years.
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According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 12420 yuan / ton at the beginning of August. As of August 30, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 10175 yuan / ton, with a drop of 18.08% in the month and a year-on-year drop of 63.61%. According to the latest market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China is 9900-10100 yuan / ton, and the barrel negotiation is 12500-13500 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery). The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 10000-10200 yuan / ton, and the barrel negotiation is 12500-13500 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery).
According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), there were 136 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, which were concentrated in the chemical industry sector (64 kinds in total) and the agricultural and sideline sectors (16 kinds in total). The commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The top three commodities with growth were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities declined month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The top three commodities with declines were electrolytic manganese (- 57.47%), magnesium (- 46.60%), and glycine (- 45.71%). The average increase / decrease in this half year was 6.53%.
Some enterprises announced the settlement price in August and the listing price in September:
At the beginning of September, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, and some enterprises announced low auction prices and a small number of transactions. Most of the production enterprises have overhauled their devices and replaced their catalysts. They strive to maintain the price and stabilize the market, but the effect is not great. The operating rate of downstream products is generally low and the demand is low, which will still restrict the BDO market in the near future.
In mid September, the domestic BDO market fell at a low level, and some manufacturers suspended sales. However, the overall performance of the downstream industry is still average, mainly waiting and waiting, and a small number of just needed purchases suppress the BDO market trend.
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At the end of September, the domestic BDO market stopped falling and was consolidated. The market was stable after the fall. The production enterprises supported the price to maintain the market, but the downstream demand was generally general. The production enterprises took a number of measures: reducing the operating rate of the device and the bidding price slightly higher than the market price, which had the effect of stopping the fall.
At the end of the month, the domestic BDO market was sorted out and watched. There was no obvious fluctuation in the quotations of manufacturers. Some manufacturers announced high-level settlement prices and new moon listing prices, which still showed obvious intention to support the market by maintaining prices. Traders’ quotations were slightly stable. The unit operation rate of downstream production enterprises is not high, mainly based on just needed purchase, and the overall performance of the demand side is not good.
On the upstream side, in terms of methanol, the supply or increase, the demand is expected to increase synchronously, and the short-term methanol market is dominated by shock consolidation. BDO’s cost level is generally supported. Raw material calcium carbide: the calcium carbide market is expected to rebound from the low level. With the increase of demand, the price increases, and the commencement rate also increases.
In terms of downstream products, some terminal demands were not followed up enough, and the commencement of downstream industries fell, especially in PTMEG industry. The shipment was under pressure and the price fell. Other downstream companies also maintain small orders that are just needed to follow up. Although PBAT’s new production capacity is purchased in the market, its resistance to high prices still exists.
Some enterprises are still overhauling, the market supply continues to decrease, and the production enterprises still maintain a price defense mentality. However, the demand increment at the downstream end is not obvious, and it mainly maintains the follow-up of just needed orders, which suppresses the market trend. Analysts of BDO business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will be mainly sorted out at a low level.
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