According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of styrene in Shandong remained at 6066.67 yuan / ton on January 1 and 8400 yuan / ton on December 31, with an overall increase of 38.43% in the whole year. The highest price point appeared at 10666.67 yuan / ton on May 18 in the second quarter, and the lowest price point appeared at 6066.67 yuan / ton on January 1.

In 2021, the price of styrene generally showed a trend of “rise shock fall”. The strong rise in the first half of the year was mainly due to the shutdown of a large number of units in the United States affected by the cold wave, the simultaneous maintenance of units in Europe and the Middle East, the shortage of global styrene supply, the price of overseas styrene increased the domestic price, the reduction of domestic net import, the low industrial inventory and the rise of price shock. The overall trend from the middle of the year to the third quarter was stable, which was the opposition between strong cost support and weak demand. The decline in the fourth quarter was due to the increase in the import of raw material pure benzene, the decline in the price, and the weakening of styrene cost support.

According to the K-bar chart of business community month, the number of months of styrene price rise in 2021 is more than the number of months of decline, of which the upward range is the largest in February, reaching 39%, and the downward range is the largest in November, reaching 19.7%.

In the first quarter, the price of styrene rose. On January 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 6066.67 yuan / ton, and on March 31, it was about 8533.33 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 40.66%. From January to the end of February, the price of styrene continued to rise. The crude oil market continues to rise, ethylene and pure benzene rise all the way, and the cost support of styrene becomes stronger. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, funds have strong optimistic expectations for downstream demand due to the in-situ Festival, and the styrene market as a whole has risen sharply. By the beginning of March, crude oil rebounded strongly, and bulk commodities were all positive. At the same time, pure benzene and ethylene also rose strongly, and the cost side was stimulated. In addition, the styrene inventory in the port was still at a historically low level, orders continued to be traded during export, and the US dollar price also played a supporting role at a high level, making the outer circumference better, As a result, the spot price of styrene surged to a new high of 9616.67 yuan / ton from the high correction to March 8. After March 8, with the continuous recovery of peripheral parking devices, domestic export shipments slowed down and export orders decreased significantly. Although the wharf inventory continued to decline, the decline was less than expected. In addition, the downstream and terminal demand was delayed to cash in, the positive output of styrene was exhausted, and the positions of futures EB05 were reduced, At the same time, under the short position increase, the futures price fell rapidly, and the market bearish sentiment appeared, guiding the continuous correction of styrene spot within the month. Near March 22, crude oil fell sharply, helping styrene fall to near cash flow. With the strong support of the cost side, the price of styrene stopped falling and rebounded. Under the strong expectation of the cost side, short supply at the end of the month and goods preparation during the Qingming holiday, as well as the expectation of tight spot supply in April, the market bull confidence was boosted, and the night trading of styrene futures rose, driving the spot price upward, The price of styrene rebounded to around 8533.33 yuan / ton.

In the second quarter, the price of styrene fluctuated and rose slightly. On April 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 8766.67 yuan / ton, and on June 30, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 9125.00 yuan / ton, up 4.09%. The trend of the second quarter can be divided into two parts. In the first part, from early April to mid May, the European and American economies gradually recovered, the popularity of vaccines boosted the demand for crude oil, and the international crude oil maintained a optimistic attitude, driving the rise of bulk commodities. Due to the centralized shutdown of styrene units in the United States due to the cold wave, the global supply is tightened, there is arbitrage in the source of export goods, there is a need to replenish the spot goods for export shipment, and the demand side support is strong. In addition, the maintenance of domestic styrene factories was concentrated in April, and the import volume shrank significantly. During the month, the inventory of ports and styrene factories continued to fall to a low level, giving bulls the opportunity to rise, the main futures bulls increased their positions, and the spot tracked up. In the second part, from late May to late June, crude oil surged, pure benzene callback and styrene cost support weakened. With the continuous release of new domestic production capacity of styrene, the gap between supply and demand gradually narrowed, the market bullish confidence weakened and the price fell. At the end of June, the price of pure benzene rose sharply under the tight market and supported a certain rebound in the price of styrene. However, the overall demand for styrene downstream decreased, and the spot price of styrene was slightly corrected.

In the third quarter, the price of styrene fluctuated first and then fell, and the overall price fell slightly. On July 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 9262.50 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 9190.00 yuan / ton, down 0.78%. In July, the domestic styrene market showed a shock trend of correction after rise. The rise and fall of styrene prices basically revolved around the cost side. The trend of crude oil and pure benzene guided the price of styrene more. The fundamentals changed little and remained stable as a whole. In August, the price of styrene fluctuated in a narrow range under the support of cost and the suppression of demand, and fell as a whole. After the sharp rise of Styrene Market in September, it fell slowly. East China pure benzene rose slightly in the shock, and the maintenance news of downstream styrene Zhejiang Petrochemical in October triggered a sharp rise in styrene futures and spot. Driven by linkage trading, pure benzene has been actively bought, the price has risen rapidly, and the cost support has given impetus to the rise of styrene. By the middle of the month, the rise of pure benzene was weak and the price fell continuously. This led to a correction in styrene prices. Near the end of the month, the price of styrene fluctuated and stabilized, the purchasing market before and after the Mid Autumn Festival, and the spot buying sentiment appeared one after another, but the pursuit was weak. In addition, the supply and demand decreased under the “energy-saving policy” in Jiangsu, while styrene units were restarted in other regions, the supply increment superimposed the arrival of ports, and the rebound of styrene was unsupported, showing an consolidation situation.

In the fourth quarter, the price of styrene generally declined. On October 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was about 9190.00 yuan / ton, and on December 31, the price of styrene in Shandong was 8400.00 yuan / ton, down 8.6%. In the quarter, from the macro perspective, the crude oil fluctuated lower from October to late November. From the low of November, the mutant strain Omicron was found and widely spread, the fear of economic recovery was restarted, the oil price fell sharply, and the macro environment support was insufficient. The price of pure benzene on the cost side fell sharply due to the rise of inventory in East China port, the subsequent centralized arrival of ships, and the expectation of load increase of large units in East China. The supply of styrene increased sharply due to the restart of large units and the planned operation of subsequent new production capacity, resulting in strong bearish sentiment in the market. In the downstream, as the temperature drops, some downstream areas in the North enter the seasonal off-season, and the construction starts decline. Due to the impact of environmental protection, the demand is further under pressure, and the price of styrene has plummeted all the way. By December, under the influence of cost support and obvious destocking performance of wharf inventory due to incremental pick-up, the styrene price superimposed the market’s short expectation that Wanhua and lihuayi will be put into operation soon, fell back slowly after the sharp rise, and rebounded at the end of the month, rising as a whole.

According to the styrene data analyst of business society, the styrene price generally showed a trend of “rise shock fall” in 2021. The decrease of imports promoted the rise, and the cost support strengthened in the early stage and then weakened. As 2022 approaches, it is expected that the effective production capacity of styrene will increase by 27% in 2022, and the industrial chain will also usher in centralized production. The production capacity growth of upstream and downstream core links may reach a high level. Looking ahead, the supply of styrene and its downstream products will be relaxed. In 2022, based on the expected requirements of the state for the stability maintenance of the real estate industry, the growth rate of terminal demand such as household appliances slowed down, and there was a risk of slowdown in foreign demand after superimposing the gradual consumption of subsidies for the U.S. epidemic. Next year’s styrene price will be balanced by crude oil cost guidance, import volume, port inventory and downstream enthusiasm for taking goods.