Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell in early January, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of January 14, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 14425 yuan / ton, up or down – 2.86% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: the raw material styrene has experienced an overall shock and rise recently. The raw material pure benzene remained stable and the raw material support continued. Futures decreased slightly, with a bad mentality. The port inventory rose, and the demand in the North continued to weaken, and there began to be a confrontation between low supply and demand in some parts. In addition, some new styrene units have output, which is bad for the market mentality.

Acrylonitrile prices continued to decline this week. In the early stage, new equipment was shipped, and the supply increased, which was bad for the spot market. Downstream textile enterprises have holidays one after another. As soon as the load progress goes down, there is bargain hunting after the spot price is low in trading. However, the stock preparation before the festival is gradually over, and the volume of future transactions is expected to decrease. Enterprise inventory continues to rise, and the mentality of operators is mostly bearish.

This week, the domestic butadiene market stopped falling and rebounded. Due to the impact of health events, some parts of the northern region were out of stock. The butadiene market in East China is at a high level, the price of Sinopec has increased continuously, the intention of middlemen is at a high level, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market. The external price rose this week, boosting the domestic spot price of butadiene. The actual order negotiation and transaction need to be followed up.

The overall upstream market of ABS is general, and the cost side support of ABS is acceptable. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises changed limited this week. In addition, there were new production capacity of polymerization plants in the early stage, the overall supply was high and the prognosis was abundant. The operating rate of the industry has been high for a long time, the inventory of enterprises and society has accumulated, and the willingness to reduce prices and take orders is obvious. On the downstream demand side, the stock preparation is coming to an end before the Spring Festival. In addition, some downstream enterprises have holidays one after another, and the inventory digestion is slow. The market is very bearish on the future market. In addition, the logistics began to slow down, the pressure on merchants increased, and let the single operation be the main.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continued to decline in early January, the overall trend of the three upstream materials is general, and the support for the cost side of ABS is acceptable. The domestic spot price is mainly affected by the high operating rate of the industry and insufficient demand follow-up. The market supply is sufficient but insufficient. It is expected that the ABS spot market may continue to fall before the Spring Festival.