After the festival, the phenol market rose first and then fell. The overall trend was 4.46% higher than that before the festival. The phenol market rose 300 yuan / ton in the first trading day, and the factory increased 500 yuan / ton in three working days. The market followed the rhythm of the factory and pushed up the offer. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of phenol was 9462 yuan / ton on October 7, and 10037 yuan / ton on October 11, an increase of 6.08%. As of November 14, the national market was 9900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2%. So far, the factory in East China has implemented 10000 yuan / ton, and the offers in major mainstream markets are as follows: 9800 yuan / ton in East China, 9900 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan, and 10000 yuan / ton in South China.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

Trend chart of phenol ex factory price index in East China in 2021

Firstly, phenol rose sharply after the festival, mainly driven by the sharp rise of pure benzene at the raw material end. According to the monitoring of business society, the ex factory price of pure benzene in Shandong increased from 7900 yuan / ton to 8580 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.61%. Upstream crude oil is approaching winter, fuel demand increases, superimposed with shortage of natural gas supply, tight supply expectation in the crude oil market, and high international oil prices. High crude oil prices and strong cost support; Centralized bidding in the downstream, active negotiation in the pure benzene market and tight spot supply; New downstream units have been put into operation in Shandong, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to increase. Near the weekend, pure benzene turned downward, and phenol followed the downward trend without cost support. On the other hand, the trend of propylene as a raw material is the same. The market price rises first and then decreases. On the first trading day after the festival, it rises by 15%, and then tends to be stable. Near the weekend, the high level of propylene market in Shandong falls, enterprises reduce the price by 50-100 yuan / ton, and the propylene price in Shandong is 9550-9600 yuan / ton. At present, the price shows signs of slight decline.

The downstream bisphenol a market has a strong offer. Affected by the bidding of a petrochemical in East China on Wednesday, the offer has a downward trend. After the bisphenol a festival, there are many companies in the downstream that just need to follow up. There are many enterprises whose own units are shut down, and there is little pressure on the market supply side, but the demand side policy is still affected, and the trading of the whole industrial chain is insufficient. So far, the offer has reached 23800 yuan / ton, with little change in other downstream products such as phenolic resin, and the overall demand is stable.

From the perspective of business society, the current phenol terminal demand is poor, it is difficult to purchase in large quantities in the market, and the supply side is stable. Business society expects the phenol Market to be sorted out in a short range, with a narrow downward expectation. The reference offer in East China is 9800-9900 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose slightly, some prices of the domestic praseodymium neodymium rare earth market rose, and the price of the heavy rare earth market rose. According to the rare earth sector index of the business society, the rare earth index was 610 points on October 12, up 6 points from yesterday and down 39.00% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), It is 125.09% higher than the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the price of domestic rare earth has increased recently, the price of mainstream commodities in the rare earth market has increased recently, and the rare earth market has increased. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of domestic praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, metal praseodymium neodymium and metal praseodymium rose. As of October 13, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earths was 630000 yuan / ton, up 0.4%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 657500 yuan / ton, up 2.73% in the first half of October; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 606500 yuan / ton, which has increased by 1.08% since October; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 747500 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.22%; The price of metal praseodymium was 872500 yuan / ton, and the price trend increased by 1.25%; The price of neodymium metal was 777000 yuan / ton, the price trend increased by 0.26%, the domestic rare earth price increased, and the light rare earth market increased slightly.

The trend of products in the domestic rare earth market is rising, the structural change of supply and demand is small, and the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal. In the near future, China’s rare earth quota on the supply side may be steadily increased, and the supply rigidity is optimized. In addition, with the implementation of the new energy efficiency standards, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners for domestic household appliances, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand side is relatively normal. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal, the demand for rare earth is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxide is rising. When there is no lock order, the rare earth metal factory mainly focuses on waiting and watching, and the procurement is more cautious. At the same time, the national environmental protection inspector is still continuing, the peak season of traditional demand for rare earth is coming, superimposing the launch expectations of relevant policies of the rare earth industry, supply and demand are expected to resonate with policies, and rare earth prices rise slightly. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are acceptable. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the latest production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”), the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 334000, a year-on-year increase of 202.1%; In the first three quarters, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.818 million, with a year-on-year increase of 203.1%, and the substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market is continuing. Recently, the downstream demand is OK, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth market is rising.

As can be seen from the trend chart, the price trend of dysprosium Series in China rose. As of the 13th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.76 million yuan / ton, and the price trend rose by 2.03% in the first half of the month; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.725 million yuan / ton, the price trend increased by 3.22%, the price of metal dysprosium was 3.535 million yuan / ton, and the price increased by 2.61% in the first half of the month. The price of domestic terbium series continued to rise, the price of domestic terbium oxide was 9 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 11.55 million yuan / ton. The transaction in the domestic rare earth market is normal, and the leading magnetic material factory purchases actively, which makes the domestic heavy rare earth market price rise slightly. In the early stage, affected by the rainy season and epidemic situation, the rare earth supply in Myanmar has been disturbed. Recently, the war in Myanmar has started again, and the supply disturbance has been further aggravated. The global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, the domestic supply is tight, and the risk of production reduction of separation enterprises using Myanmar mines in the south is increased. Affected by this, the domestic heavy rare earth market price rises.

National policy support. In early July, Vice Minister Wang Jiangping of the Ministry of industry and information technology pointed out that the regulations on the administration of rare earth will be introduced as soon as possible. We expect that the regulations will be introduced with a high probability within this year, and national legislation will regulate the high-quality development of the rare earth industry. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products is OK, the downstream demand is normal recently, and the price of domestic rare earth market is rising.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply starts normally. Recently, the on-site transactions have increased and the goods are actively prepared. The peak season of traditional demand for rare earth is coming. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that there is room for the market price of rare earth in the later stage.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 4094 yuan / ton and that of secondary metallurgical coke was 4038 yuan / ton on October 12

In terms of coking coal, the market is relatively strong, and the overall supply in terms of origin is still tight. Coal mines give priority to power supply. The main production areas are affected by heavy rainfall and traffic is limited.

The coke market is running stably temporarily. Affected by the dual control of energy consumption and crude steel decompression policy, the start-up of steel mills is generally reduced, the demand for coke is slowed down, and the coke is purchased on demand. At present, most coking enterprises, except Shanxi and Shandong, produce normally, and the coke enterprises ship actively. It is expected that the coke market will operate stably and weakly in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate was 7975.00 yuan / ton on the 7th, 7925.00 yuan / ton on the 11th, down 0.63%, the current price fell 2.63% month on month, and the current price rose 28.08% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

Recently, the price of potassium carbonate continues to fall. As can be seen from the above figure, the market of potassium carbonate has been poor since late August, and it has been in a downward trend for almost two months. The potassium carbonate market has sufficient supply and stable supply, and the demand of downstream factories is weak, maintaining the rigid demand for procurement. Potassium carbonate manufacturers have slight inventory pressure and arrange orders for shipment. Potassium carbonate market fell slightly. According to the statistics of business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of Shanxi industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 7600-8300 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

The supply of domestic potash fertilizer is sufficient for the time being. The amount of potassium chloride stored in the port is about 2.3 million tons, with little change. The international market price of potassium chloride has increased greatly, and the international price of potassium chloride is about 500-700 US dollars / ton. At present, the domestic supply of potassium chloride is sufficient and the demand is general. In the future, it is expected that the potassium chloride market will consolidate at a high level.

The recent potash fertilizer market is dominated by shock consolidation. Downstream factories are not active in purchasing and maintain rigid demand. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly fall in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 9, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 13433 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on October 1, 2021 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 12700 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 733 yuan / ton, or 5.77%. Compared with September 1 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 8900 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 4533 yuan / ton, or 50.94%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that in September, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market rose by more than 42%. In October, after the National Day holiday, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market continued to rise. Under the guidance of the energy-saving dual control policy, dimethyl carbonate units in Shandong and Anhui had maintenance plans in October. During the holiday, although there were construction plans for dimethyl carbonate in Ningbo, it did not support the overall supply of the market, and the supply of dimethyl carbonate in the venue was still tight after the holiday, The spot market is hard to find, so the price of dimethyl carbonate on the floor continues to rise after the festival. On the 8th, the mainstream price of dimethyl carbonate in the domestic Shandong market was around 12800-13500 yuan / ton, and the high-end price rose to 14000 yuan / ton, up from 1200 yuan / ton before the festival. At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the floor is OK, and the downstream has resumed work one after another. As of October 9, The average ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate is 13433 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.77% after the national day.

In terms of upstream dimethyl ether, after the national day, the domestic dimethyl ether market rose. As of October 8, the reference price of dimethyl ether was 5205 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.75% compared with October 1 (4742.50 yuan / ton). Since early September, the domestic dimethyl ether Market has risen sharply, mainly from the raw material methanol market. Affected by the dual control policy, the supply in the mainland is limited, the inventory of enterprises is reduced, the price of thermal coal has hit a record high again, and the methanol cost support is obvious. In addition, the methanol supply in Northwest China and other places has shrunk, the methanol production cost support is obvious, and the futures and spot have risen hand in hand. Under the influence of the policy, the supply of goods in the mainland is limited, and the downstream goods preparation is more active before the national day. The downstream strong goods preparation operation synchronously supported the sharp rise of the market, and mainland traders did not dare to be bearish under the logic of cost promotion. Under the high coal price, methanol cost support is still obvious.

Future trend analysis

At present, the on-site supply of dimethyl carbonate has decreased significantly, so the supply side will continue to support the market of dimethyl carbonate in the short term. On the demand side, the downstream is also recovering under the guidance of policies, and the demand side can still be maintained. Therefore, considering the factors of supply and demand, the dimethyl carbonate analysts of business society believe that in the short term, The domestic dimethyl carbonate market is less likely to fall sharply. It mainly operates in a high and narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1676.67 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1833.33 yuan / ton, up 9.34%. The current price rose 30.95% month on month, and the current price rose 80.33% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong rose this week. As can be seen from the figure above, formaldehyde rose for more than one consecutive week, with a maximum increase of more than 9% in a single week. As of October 8, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1820-2000 yuan / ton. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical has two formaldehyde production lines that were discontinued on June 25, with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and a formaldehyde content of 37%. Recently, the operation of formaldehyde enterprises has not been significantly improved, the inventory situation is relatively optimistic, the transaction situation of formaldehyde market is OK, and the formaldehyde Market continues to rise.

Upstream methanol: methanol supply in Northwest China and other places has shrunk, the price of power coal continues to reach a new high, the support of methanol production cost is obvious, the price of methanol futures has risen sharply, and the domestic methanol spot market has continued to rise. Under the influence of the policy, the supply of methanol in the mainland is limited, and the downstream goods preparation is more active before the national day. The downstream strong goods preparation operation synchronously supported the sharp rise of the market. The methanol market continued to rise sharply, providing strong cost support for formaldehyde.

Some of the downstream plate factories started on holidays, maintained rigid demand procurement, had acceptable acceptance of the market situation, and had no obvious resistance. Formaldehyde manufacturers actively shipped, and the market inventory was digested stably. The formaldehyde market was mainly driven by the rise of methanol and rose with the rise of methanol market.

Recently, the methanol market has risen sharply, the market remains high and the cost support is strong. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society expects that the recent formaldehyde price rise in Shandong is dominated by shock.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell sharply this month. This month, the average ex factory quotation price of isooctanol mainstream in Shandong fell from 17366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 12000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 5366.67 yuan / ton, down 30.90%, up 61.44% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the isooctanol market fell this month, and the isooctanol commodity index was 88.24 on September 29.

The downstream demand is weakened and the supply of isooctanol is tight

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong fell this month: the price of Jianlan chemical at the end of the month was 12000 yuan / ton, which was 5400 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; At the end of this month, the price of isooctanol offered by lihuayi was 12000 yuan / ton, which decreased by 5200 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this month; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 12000 yuan / ton of isooctanol at the end of this month, down 5500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month. From the k-column chart of isooctanol week, the decline of isooctanol in the first three weeks of September was small, and the decline in the fourth week was large. In the case of sharp decline in DOP price, the decline of isooctanol in a single week reached 5.92%.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this month. The quotation increased from 7688.55 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8083.83 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 395.28 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.14%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.75%. In early September, the propylene market was not as good as expected. Due to the lack of gas in the downstream, propylene enterprises have increased the pressure to sell goods and give up profits. In the middle of September, the propylene market began to rise significantly, the downstream goods were actively prepared, the demand increased, and the price increased by 300-350 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. In late September, the price was slightly corrected. Considering the downstream acceptance, the propylene price decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the whole, the market price of upstream raw materials increased slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell sharply this month. The DOP quotation decreased from 14737.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 12425.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 2312.50 yuan / ton, down 15.69%, up 71.38% year-on-year over the same period last year. In September, many DOP enterprises stopped production or limited production due to the double control and limitation of energy consumption. By the end of September, the overall operating rate of the plasticizer industry was about 40%, the lowest operating rate in the year. Overall, downstream DOP prices fell sharply, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In mid and early October, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly. With the start of the early maintenance unit, the overall operating rate of the isooctanol industry increased slightly, but the upstream support is limited, the downstream market is general, and the demand is weakened. The isooctanol analyst of business society believes that the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early October

In September, domestic liquid ammonia reversed the downward trend of last month and walked out of the “V” reversal. According to the monitoring of business society, the increase of liquid ammonia this month was as high as 25.97%. In late August, the market has recovered all the decline in August, and the highest price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has also soared to the range of 4700-4900 yuan / ton, mainly due to the reduction of supply caused by enterprise maintenance, the continuous increase of cost, and the expectation of peak season demand for agrochemical fertilizer. At the end of the month, the market supply pressure eased, the market retreated slightly, and the price returned to the range of 4500-4700 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, the market supply remained tight in September. Affected by “power restriction” and “production restriction”, domestic devices were significantly affected. Especially in the middle and early ten days, enterprises Park more. Most of the units in major producing areas such as northwest, Hubei, Hebei and Shandong have been overhauled or started with load reduction, the market supply has continued to decline, the domestic urea output has decreased significantly, reversing the decline in August, and the price has increased significantly. While some ammonia enterprises have switched to urea, which has exacerbated the contradiction of shortage of liquid ammonia supply, and the price of liquid ammonia has also increased, especially in Shandong, Hebei, two lakes Manufacturers in most parts of the country, such as the northeast, took turns to transfer out factory prices, and the market rose.

On the cost side, the coal price increases and raises the cost. Affected by this, the market price of liquid ammonia rises. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average market price of power coal port at the beginning of the month is about 1127.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month is about 1697.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 50.55%, a year-on-year increase of 180.23%, a record high in the cycle. Affected by the environmental protection policy and the dual control policy of energy consumption, some coal mines stopped production, resulting in a sharp decline in supply. In addition, the peak period of civil power has passed, but the downstream demand is still hot, the inventory of power plants is low, the superimposed coal price is high, the power plants passively accept high price procurement, the willingness to generate power is not strong, and the “power restriction” mode is started.

From the demand side, the downstream urea manufacturers frequently maintained, and the average daily output of urea decreased significantly. According to statistics, the shutdown and maintenance of urea in September has not been recovered (Tianrun, Boyuan, etc.), energy consumption control shutdown (Ningyang, Linggu), fault shutdown (xinlianxin, Dongguang, Jinkai), defect elimination of new units (Haoyuan), and safety control (Jinxin). Driven by superimposed demand, agricultural demand began to prepare fertilizer, industrial demand rose, the demand for urea in downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increased, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remained at a high level. According to the monitoring of business society, the urea quotation in Shandong increased from 2480.00 yuan / ton on September 1 to 2816.67 yuan / ton on September 29, an increase of about 336.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.58%, and a year-on-year increase of 66.01% compared with the same period last year.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. The upstream and downstream resonance rises in September, and the increase of liquid ammonia is stronger than that of urea.

Future forecast: the business community believes that the market rises and falls at the end of the month, showing obvious regional differences. The prices in the northeast and northwest are still high due to the seasonal peak season. Prices in most other regions have loosened, but there is obvious downward resistance. Near the peak season of Wheat Fertilizer in autumn, downstream procurement is expected to rise, which will rigidly support the price of liquid ammonia to remain high. However, under the background of “maintaining supply and stabilizing price”, it is difficult for the market to rise sharply, especially at present, liquid ammonia has reached an all-time high, The market is expected to maintain high and narrow fluctuations in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rose to 5860 yuan / ton at the end of the month after a slight decline this month. On September 1, the price of mixed xylene was 5730 yuan / ton; On September 30, the price was 5860 yuan / ton, up 2.27% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 70.35%.

2、 Analysis and review

Since the middle of this month, the prices of downstream gasoline blending and related aromatics have risen sharply, driving the rise of mixed xylene; Gasoline prices fell at the end of the month, but due to the good support of external news, crude oil rose continuously and the price rose broadly, supporting the continued rise of mixed xylene.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fluctuated higher in September and prices rose broadly. U.S. crude oil inventories have declined continuously, the recovery of oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf affected by the hurricane is slow, and the epidemic has eased, the market is worried that crude oil supply may be tight. As of September 29, Brent rose $5.65 / barrel, or 7.74%; WTI rose US $6.33/barrel, or 9.24%.

In terms of external market, as of September 29, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $754.5/t, down US $16 / T or 2.1% from August 31; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $772.5/t, down US $19.5/t or 2.5% from August 31.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX price remained basically stable in September, with the price at 7100 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 54.35% over the same period last year. On September 29, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was USD 864-866 / T FOB Korea and USD 882-884 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China rose violently this month. The price at the end of the month was 5083.45 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.49% over the beginning of the month and 53.35% over the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China rose in the middle of this month and stabilized to the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 6500 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.56% over the beginning of the month and 47.73% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the tight supply of crude oil is expected to remain unchanged, the global epidemic has eased, and the demand is expected to be better in the fourth quarter. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The price of crude oil is strong and the cost of mixed xylene is well supported. However, the downstream demand is weak and it is difficult to improve in the short term. On the whole, the trend of mixed xylene continued in October. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.