1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rose to 5860 yuan / ton at the end of the month after a slight decline this month. On September 1, the price of mixed xylene was 5730 yuan / ton; On September 30, the price was 5860 yuan / ton, up 2.27% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 70.35%.

2、 Analysis and review

Since the middle of this month, the prices of downstream gasoline blending and related aromatics have risen sharply, driving the rise of mixed xylene; Gasoline prices fell at the end of the month, but due to the good support of external news, crude oil rose continuously and the price rose broadly, supporting the continued rise of mixed xylene.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fluctuated higher in September and prices rose broadly. U.S. crude oil inventories have declined continuously, the recovery of oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf affected by the hurricane is slow, and the epidemic has eased, the market is worried that crude oil supply may be tight. As of September 29, Brent rose $5.65 / barrel, or 7.74%; WTI rose US $6.33/barrel, or 9.24%.

In terms of external market, as of September 29, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $754.5/t, down US $16 / T or 2.1% from August 31; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $772.5/t, down US $19.5/t or 2.5% from August 31.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX price remained basically stable in September, with the price at 7100 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 54.35% over the same period last year. On September 29, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was USD 864-866 / T FOB Korea and USD 882-884 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China rose violently this month. The price at the end of the month was 5083.45 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.49% over the beginning of the month and 53.35% over the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China rose in the middle of this month and stabilized to the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 6500 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.56% over the beginning of the month and 47.73% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the tight supply of crude oil is expected to remain unchanged, the global epidemic has eased, and the demand is expected to be better in the fourth quarter. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The price of crude oil is strong and the cost of mixed xylene is well supported. However, the downstream demand is weak and it is difficult to improve in the short term. On the whole, the trend of mixed xylene continued in October. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.