In September, domestic liquid ammonia reversed the downward trend of last month and walked out of the “V” reversal. According to the monitoring of business society, the increase of liquid ammonia this month was as high as 25.97%. In late August, the market has recovered all the decline in August, and the highest price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has also soared to the range of 4700-4900 yuan / ton, mainly due to the reduction of supply caused by enterprise maintenance, the continuous increase of cost, and the expectation of peak season demand for agrochemical fertilizer. At the end of the month, the market supply pressure eased, the market retreated slightly, and the price returned to the range of 4500-4700 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, the market supply remained tight in September. Affected by “power restriction” and “production restriction”, domestic devices were significantly affected. Especially in the middle and early ten days, enterprises Park more. Most of the units in major producing areas such as northwest, Hubei, Hebei and Shandong have been overhauled or started with load reduction, the market supply has continued to decline, the domestic urea output has decreased significantly, reversing the decline in August, and the price has increased significantly. While some ammonia enterprises have switched to urea, which has exacerbated the contradiction of shortage of liquid ammonia supply, and the price of liquid ammonia has also increased, especially in Shandong, Hebei, two lakes Manufacturers in most parts of the country, such as the northeast, took turns to transfer out factory prices, and the market rose.

On the cost side, the coal price increases and raises the cost. Affected by this, the market price of liquid ammonia rises. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average market price of power coal port at the beginning of the month is about 1127.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month is about 1697.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 50.55%, a year-on-year increase of 180.23%, a record high in the cycle. Affected by the environmental protection policy and the dual control policy of energy consumption, some coal mines stopped production, resulting in a sharp decline in supply. In addition, the peak period of civil power has passed, but the downstream demand is still hot, the inventory of power plants is low, the superimposed coal price is high, the power plants passively accept high price procurement, the willingness to generate power is not strong, and the “power restriction” mode is started.

From the demand side, the downstream urea manufacturers frequently maintained, and the average daily output of urea decreased significantly. According to statistics, the shutdown and maintenance of urea in September has not been recovered (Tianrun, Boyuan, etc.), energy consumption control shutdown (Ningyang, Linggu), fault shutdown (xinlianxin, Dongguang, Jinkai), defect elimination of new units (Haoyuan), and safety control (Jinxin). Driven by superimposed demand, agricultural demand began to prepare fertilizer, industrial demand rose, the demand for urea in downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increased, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remained at a high level. According to the monitoring of business society, the urea quotation in Shandong increased from 2480.00 yuan / ton on September 1 to 2816.67 yuan / ton on September 29, an increase of about 336.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.58%, and a year-on-year increase of 66.01% compared with the same period last year.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. The upstream and downstream resonance rises in September, and the increase of liquid ammonia is stronger than that of urea.

Future forecast: the business community believes that the market rises and falls at the end of the month, showing obvious regional differences. The prices in the northeast and northwest are still high due to the seasonal peak season. Prices in most other regions have loosened, but there is obvious downward resistance. Near the peak season of Wheat Fertilizer in autumn, downstream procurement is expected to rise, which will rigidly support the price of liquid ammonia to remain high. However, under the background of “maintaining supply and stabilizing price”, it is difficult for the market to rise sharply, especially at present, liquid ammonia has reached an all-time high, The market is expected to maintain high and narrow fluctuations in the near future.