After the festival, the phenol market rose first and then fell. The overall trend was 4.46% higher than that before the festival. The phenol market rose 300 yuan / ton in the first trading day, and the factory increased 500 yuan / ton in three working days. The market followed the rhythm of the factory and pushed up the offer. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of phenol was 9462 yuan / ton on October 7, and 10037 yuan / ton on October 11, an increase of 6.08%. As of November 14, the national market was 9900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2%. So far, the factory in East China has implemented 10000 yuan / ton, and the offers in major mainstream markets are as follows: 9800 yuan / ton in East China, 9900 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan, and 10000 yuan / ton in South China.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

Trend chart of phenol ex factory price index in East China in 2021

Firstly, phenol rose sharply after the festival, mainly driven by the sharp rise of pure benzene at the raw material end. According to the monitoring of business society, the ex factory price of pure benzene in Shandong increased from 7900 yuan / ton to 8580 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.61%. Upstream crude oil is approaching winter, fuel demand increases, superimposed with shortage of natural gas supply, tight supply expectation in the crude oil market, and high international oil prices. High crude oil prices and strong cost support; Centralized bidding in the downstream, active negotiation in the pure benzene market and tight spot supply; New downstream units have been put into operation in Shandong, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to increase. Near the weekend, pure benzene turned downward, and phenol followed the downward trend without cost support. On the other hand, the trend of propylene as a raw material is the same. The market price rises first and then decreases. On the first trading day after the festival, it rises by 15%, and then tends to be stable. Near the weekend, the high level of propylene market in Shandong falls, enterprises reduce the price by 50-100 yuan / ton, and the propylene price in Shandong is 9550-9600 yuan / ton. At present, the price shows signs of slight decline.

The downstream bisphenol a market has a strong offer. Affected by the bidding of a petrochemical in East China on Wednesday, the offer has a downward trend. After the bisphenol a festival, there are many companies in the downstream that just need to follow up. There are many enterprises whose own units are shut down, and there is little pressure on the market supply side, but the demand side policy is still affected, and the trading of the whole industrial chain is insufficient. So far, the offer has reached 23800 yuan / ton, with little change in other downstream products such as phenolic resin, and the overall demand is stable.

From the perspective of business society, the current phenol terminal demand is poor, it is difficult to purchase in large quantities in the market, and the supply side is stable. Business society expects the phenol Market to be sorted out in a short range, with a narrow downward expectation. The reference offer in East China is 9800-9900 yuan / ton.