1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business agency, the domestic LNG rose by 9.28% in September, and then rose again after the holiday. In the traditional peak season, the price continued to rise under the boost of demand. On October 30, the average price of domestic LNG was 3766.67 yuan / ton, up 43.22% compared with the beginning of the month and 14.12% lower than the same period last year.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
October entered the peak season of the traditional market, the domestic LNG market continued to rise, the trading center shifted upward, the liquid price continued to rise throughout the month, and the prices of many places increased by more than 1000 yuan. At the beginning of the month, after the end of the double festival holiday, road transportation resumed to be unobstructed, downstream began to actively replenish, terminal demand increased, and LNG prices continued to rise. In the middle of the month, the northern cities entered the winter heating period, and the regional urban fuel and make-up depots were positive and the market mentality was optimistic. In addition, the price of raw gas was increased twice this month, which supported the continuous upward trend of LNG price. At the end of the month, the growth of domestic LNG market slowed down, and trading in some regions was slightly tired, such as Shanxi, Henan and other places’ quotation slightly callback. On October 30, PetroChina Western Branch’s raw material natural gas auction, the transaction price was about 1.68-1.7 yuan / m3, which was still expected. The industry had a strong wait-and-see mood. The liquid plant adjusted the price according to the shipment situation, but the overall market situation was still upward.
The temperature dropped sharply this month, and the domestic LNG market will rise every winter. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will rise every winter. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Northeast China and other regions are heating ahead of time. Urban fuel and replenishment are active. At the same time, the coal demand increases, the vehicle demand continues to improve, and the gas station sales volume significantly improves, and the overall market demand increases significantly. This month, Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy, Xinjiang Qinghua, etc. have planned maintenance enterprises. The operating rate has declined. In addition, Huanggang in Hubei Province and Rudong in Jiangsu Province have limited shipment. The supply in some areas is tight and the basic preference is strong, which supports the price strongly.
According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 30, the average price in Inner Mongolia was around 3790 yuan / ton, and the price was rising; in Shaanxi, the average price was around 3850 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Shanxi, the average price was around 3900 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Xinjiang, the average price was around 4250 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Ningxia, the average price was around 3920 yuan / ton, the price was rising, and the average price in Sichuan was 3820 yuan Around yuan / ton, the price rose; in October, prices rose sharply.
Enterprise capacity rose and fell from October 30 to September 30
Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 3790 yuan / ton: 2580 yuan / ton: 1210 yuan
Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 3790 yuan / ton 2660 yuan / ton 1130 yuan
Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day — 2580 yuan / ton–
Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 3830 yuan / ton 2650 yuan / ton 1180 yuan
Shengdazizhou: 1 million cubic meters / day, 3820 yuan / ton, 2720 yuan / ton, 1100 yuan
Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 3630 yuan / ton: 2580 yuan / ton: 1050 yuan
Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 3980 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton 1280 yuan
Qinshui Xinao — 3830 yuan / ton 2650 yuan / ton 1180 yuan
Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million cubic meters / day 3930 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 1530 yuan
Most downstream products showed an upward trend
The transaction price of methanol in Lubei market of Shandong Province is generally stable at 1720-1730 yuan / ton, and the transaction is general and stable temporarily. The methanol market in southern Shandong Province fell by 10-20 yuan / ton to 1820-1840 yuan / ton in spot exchange. Linyi received the local price of 1800-1820 yuan / ton and delivered it without tax. The transaction was improved. The quotation of logistics goods was 1770-1780 yuan / ton, and the transaction was general. The overall receiving of goods in the downstream is quite cautious. The methanol market in central Shandong is stable to 1900 yuan / ton, while the transaction of peripheral goods is stable to 1710-1730 yuan / ton. The transaction is weak, and most contracts are executed.
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Urea, in late October, the market price of urea in Shandong area may rise slightly. According to urea analysts of the business agency, the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise mainly. Next, it is necessary to wait for the final supply volume of India’s bidding.
Dichloromethane: at present, domestic dichloromethane is affected by the high price of raw materials, and the production cost is high. However, the purchasing intention of downstream market is flat, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards dichloromethane. Therefore, some enterprises reduce the negative pressure and reduce the pressure. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will remain stable in a short time.
Ethylene, current crude oil: the two sides of the Libya conflict signed a cease-fire agreement in Geneva on the same day. The market was more worried about crude oil demand, and the decline of crude oil could not form a support for the ethylene market. Therefore, data analysts of business agency expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall below.
3、 Future forecast
LNG analysts of the business agency believe that: the market atmosphere is good in October, and the prices continue to push up strongly and forcefully. However, with the rising prices and the start-up of maintenance enterprises in the early stage, the supply is increasing, and the mentality of the downstream is a little tired, and the atmosphere of local transactions is weakening, and the rising trend is slowing down, and there are some callback phenomena. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise strongly and effectively in the short term In the past, the trend was upward, but the range was limited.
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