Trend survey of ethylene glycol
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Through market investigation, domestic glycol market has been surging and falling this week in case of large domestic supply pressure in the long term of main port going to the warehouse and strong and weak in the near future. According to the survey of participants in upstream, middle and lower reaches, although the far end pressure is relatively high, the diving market needs to be digested this week. About 43.33% of market participants hold neutral views on the market; domestic production is gradually reflected, some orders are cancelled, pressure on polyester end is gradually reflected, and demand deterioration is expected to be strong, with 36.67% of market participants pessimistic attitude towards the market; next week, they arrive in Hong Kong Less, the recent warehouse going will continue, and about 20% of market participants in the short term are optimistic about the market.
Commencement rate;
1、 Today, the ethylene glycol industry started: 60.24% (up 0.05%); non coal load 62.45% (stable); coal production 56.17% (up 0.13%); 2. The domestic polyester industry today has a stable starting rate of 87.74% (production base of 64.2 million tons / year); and the starting rate of downstream weaving industry is 82.44%.
Market overview;
The general election in the United States is basically settled, commodity market mentality has been restored. Today, the overall trend of glycol market is ahead of the trend. The overall price is slightly higher than the previous exchange. In terms of daily transaction, spot transactions are 3655-3680, and the base margin shrinks to around 30; the spot base difference is 20 next week, and the transaction is 3670-3680; the contract negotiation of the US dollar market is mainly based on the recent negotiations on ship and goods, which is 470-474 USD / ton.
Supply analysis;
Terminal inventory: as of Monday, the total inventory of MEG port in East China main port area was 1094400 tons, a decrease of 156 tons compared with last Monday, and a decrease of 56000 tons compared with last Thursday.
In detail, there are 654000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 162000 tons in Taicang, 110000 tons in Ningbo, 105000 tons in Jiangyin and Changzhou, 63400 tons in Shanghai and Changshu. (11.5-11.8) the delivery of the wharf this week: Zhangjiagang delivers 7700-7750 tons per day; the comprehensive daily average delivery of 4800-4850 tons of Taicang and the total daily average delivery of Ningbo main port is around 5500 tons.
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Device dynamics:
Unit aspect: a new unit of 600000 tons in Xinjiang is gradually increased at present; the production of superior products has been produced by PetroChina refining and chemical engineering, and the operating load is gradually increased; Rongxin chemical has a parking and maintenance plan in this month, which is expected to last for 20 days; and the construction of Shanxi Wao can be steadily increased.
Demand analysis:
At present, there is no new contradiction in the basic surface of ethylene glycol market. Short-term use of macro warming to drive price or repair with shock, but the new release of the supply end is not reduced, the flow of wharf to warehouse is hindered, and the supply and demand margin lacks new improvement points. In the later stage, it is difficult to form a sustained rebound trend.
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