1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market continued to rise this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3540 yuan / ton, up 2.91% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Boosted by the rise in international crude oil prices, toluene prices continued to rise this week. Sinopec’s listed toluene prices generally rose 50-200 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is at a high level, and the pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced. Market oversupply, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3500 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, crude oil, supported by good vaccine news and OPEC’s hope of delaying production increase, this week’s international crude oil prices rose. However, due to the failure of US fiscal stimulus negotiations, the global epidemic is still serious, and oil prices are still facing downward risks. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $1.65/barrel to close at $43.435/barrel, up 3.95% from last week. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, TDI, prices fell slightly this week, the market mentality is cautious, trading atmosphere is weak, pay attention to factory policy guidance. RMB 13500 / T for domestic goods and RMB 14000 / T for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will stabilize. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk was about 532 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 550 US dollars / ton CFR China. PX market is expected to stabilize in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that toluene in the domestic market will fluctuate slightly next week.