In May 2020, the ethanol market rose first and then stabilized. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of the ethanol market at the beginning of the month was 5587 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of the domestic ethanol market was 5775 yuan / ton, up 3.36% in the month, up 9.38% compared with the same period last year.

This month, the impact of upstream corn on ethanol production enterprises is obvious, with most regions rising first and then falling. At the beginning of the month, the price of enterprises in the ethanol market in Shandong Province was raised, and then the export order was weakened, and the market went down. At the end of the month, the downstream maintained rigid demand, and the price of ethanol market was stable. In East China, the price of ethanol market was up and down, and the price of anhydrous alcohol was down at the beginning of the month, and the price of enterprises was up due to the rise of surrounding areas. However, in the later period, some enterprises had a positive attitude of shipping, and the ethanol market was sorted out At the beginning of the month, the ethanol market in the district went up, the price of corn raw materials was high, the price of large factories was raised, the inventory was low, and the price of small factories was low. Later, the market was stable due to the imminent storage and auction.

In terms of logistics, the price of logistics in this month is stable, 350-400 yuan / ton from Heilongjiang to Shandong. In the early ten days of this month, under the influence of the epidemic situation in Jilin area, the delivery is affected. In the late ten days of this month, the epidemic situation in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang is serious, 230-240 yuan / ton from Henan to Hubei, and 250 yuan / ton from Henan to Anhui. The shipping price has not changed much, but the shipment performance is slow this month, and it needs to wait about a week.

In terms of raw materials, corn: the price of corn in China has stabilized as a whole. In the face of market support, the high premium and high transaction Bureau of temporary storage corn auction has great strength, which also reflects the market demand for temporary storage corn. In the short term, the price of corn may be supported. At the same time, we should continue to pay attention to the later auctions.

Ethyl acetate: in May, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose first and then fell, with a shock range of 200 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, the market of raw materials acetic acid and ethanol continued to rise, which gave strong support to the cost of ethyl acetate, and the downstream replenishment was relatively active after the May Day holiday, which promoted the market transaction to go higher. Later, the downstream entered the stage of centralized digestion. New orders in the market were insufficient, and some suppliers’ inventory was accumulated. However, raw acetic acid was still rising sharply, and ethyl acetate suppliers continued to follow, but the overall increase was limited. At the same time, the South China market began to decline after the rise. The local supply was sufficient. The downstream purchase of ethyl acetate was limited and the digestion cycle was long. The market was continuously weak. Under the resistance of some suppliers, the South China market started a new round of decline. In the middle of the year, the market of ethyl acetate in the market was gradually weak, and the inventory of mainstream manufacturers was constantly accumulating. However, at that time, the raw materials acetic acid and ethanol were high and strong, and ethyl acetate was forced to lose money and compete for shipment. Near the end of the month, jinyimeng ethyl acetate plant was shut down, which slightly eased the market decline. However, the market supply and demand deviation was large, the inventory quantity of mainstream suppliers was still accumulating, and the decline continued in a passive stage.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 47 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 31 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were ethylene (69.89%), trichloromethane (67.86%) and crude benzene (24.52%). There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

3、 Future forecast

The auction price of raw material corn remains high, the price sent to the enterprise is high, the production pressure of the enterprise is high, the inventory of the enterprise is low, the order delivery is continuous, the short-term enterprise will remain high, the price of cassava raw materials continues to rise, at present, the raw materials of the enterprise to the port are mostly purchased in the early stage, the price does not reach the ultra-high position, the enterprise maintains normal production, but The traditional demand for tourism has entered the off-season, and the overall demand is weak. The price of goods sent to the northeast also remains high. The ethanol analysts of the business agency predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline has been cut twice this month, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On the first day, the price of aniline was 4800 yuan / ton, down to 4600 yuan / ton on May 6; then it went down to 4466.67 yuan / ton from large-scale stable operation to small-scale operation on May 21; and it continued to operate stably and weakly. On May 1, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 4800-5020 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 4800-4890 yuan / ton; on May 31, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 4600-4820 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton. Aniline prices fell 333.33 yuan / ton this month, down 6.94% in the month.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Raw materials: on May 1, the price of pure benzene was 2750-3400 yuan / ton (average price 3020 yuan / ton), and on May 31, the price of pure benzene was 3450-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3600 yuan / ton), up 580 yuan / ton from May 1, up 19.21% this month. In June, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene five times, with a total increase of 700 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. But at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price.

Nitric acid: prices stabilized after falling on May 7. The price of nitric acid in East China was 1466.67 yuan / ton on May 1, 1433.33 yuan / ton on May 31, down 33.34 yuan / ton this month, down 2.27%.

2. Product: this month, aniline basically maintained stable and weak operation, with two significant price reductions. In addition to the two declines, the rest maintained a weak and stable trend, with prices largely stable and moving slightly. The operating rate of downstream auxiliary of aniline is still low, and the lack of demand drags the decline of aniline; MDI procurement is mostly contract, which is difficult to support the demand of aniline.

3、 Future forecast

1. In terms of raw materials: it is heard that the turnover of pure benzene is 3600 yuan / ton in May, 3680-3700 yuan / ton in June, 3760 yuan / ton in July and 3800 yuan / ton in August. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has increased, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, or the pure benzene market has been affected. In the long run, the market price of pure benzene will continue to rise, but the short-term oscillation still exists.

Foreign public health events began to improve, the blockade measures were gradually relaxed, and automobile transportation began to recover. However, the demand for aniline has not been significantly increased in the short term.

It is expected that aniline will maintain a weak and stable trend in the short term and wait for the rebound opportunity.

This month, the domestic polysilicon market continued the decline in April, and the price continued to bottom, but the decline slowed down slightly, and the price bottomed out slightly at the end of the month picked up. This is also the first time that polysilicon has ended its 9-week decline. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the overall decline of polysilicon in the whole month was – 3.40%, which was significantly narrowed compared with the decline (- 15.9%) in April.

The main reason for the decline of polysilicon market this month is that the manufacturer took the initiative to reduce the price in the first half of May, which brought bad market. Moreover, the price of imported silicon materials has hit the domestic market with a new low one after another. According to statistics, in May, the price of polycrystalline silicon in non China fell by about 5000 yuan / ton. However, the root cause is still at the demand side. In the context of the epidemic, the demand for downstream procurement further shrank, and the export orders of components significantly shrank. According to statistics, the total export volume of components fell by – 18.3% month on month in April, and the export is expected to be even less optimistic in May. Therefore, the market price of polysilicon is still at the bottom this month, and the price of new orders in the market has dropped a lot.

From both sides of supply and demand, first of all, the supply of polysilicon is still abundant in May. Although affected by the inventory pressure and the sluggish downstream procurement, the number of maintenance manufacturers has been increasing. As of May 29, the number of domestic polysilicon maintenance and load reduction manufacturers has increased from 2 in April to 5. It is expected that there will still be two maintenance plans in the later stage, but the accumulated inventory in the early stage has made the enterprise always At present, it is still at the end of the de stocking cycle. In addition, from the perspective of polysilicon import end, the polysilicon import volume is still at a low level this month. According to statistics, the polysilicon import volume in April was about 8000 tons, down 28% on a month on month basis, down 34% on a year-on-year basis. It can be seen that the pressure from external sources is not large, and the current supply pressure is mainly from domestic sources. According to the situation of manufacturers, the signing of orders by manufacturers has declined compared with the past, and they are mainly signed in June. In addition, affected by the increase of transportation cost caused by high-speed charging, the profit of manufacturers is further squeezed, and the delivery speed of manufacturers is further reduced. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main domestic transaction price of polysilicon with the model of primary solar material is 38000-42000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of demand, the terminal demand is still weak, especially the external demand continues to decline. Affected by the overseas epidemic, the global terminal installation is blocked, and the overseas orders of the domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, resulting in the operation rate of the domestic component manufacturers gradually reduced, which is transmitted to the silicon part of the upstream industrial chain, especially at present, the epidemic in India is becoming more and more serious, as the main polysilicon in China In the export area, the polycrystalline demand in this area has declined significantly, which has greatly affected the export. The production time of new single crystal production capacity can only be delayed, and domestic production remains stable. At present, there is no release of new production capacity, which also alleviates the pressure brought by the supply side to some extent. This is also an important reason for the narrower price drop this month. On the other hand, the European and American markets are not optimistic. Orders for downstream components have also been cancelled or delayed. The reduction of orders has led to the price bottoming again and again, which has been transmitted to the upstream silicon industry, forcing enterprises to reduce prices for shipment.

In the later stage, the business club believes that the polysilicon supply is still in excess at present, but in the later stage, with more and more enterprise maintenance, the polysilicon inventory removal cycle will come to an end, and the supply pressure in the later stage may be resolved. However, the problem of demand side is expected to be difficult to solve in the short term, mainly because the overseas epidemic trend has not been effectively controlled, especially in India. The demand for China’s photovoltaic products is shrinking, the price of orders is shrinking, and the overseas anti-dumping efforts against China’s photovoltaic products are increasing. The export situation in the short term is still not optimistic. It is expected that the price of silicon materials will remain under pressure in the near future Considering that the price of polysilicon will be increased tentatively by the end of the month, it is expected that polysilicon will be stabilized at the end of the month.