I. price trend

The market price of ammonium sulphate has started to fall since this month, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 616 yuan / ton, and on November 20, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 563 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 8.65%. On November 20, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 47.14, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.65% from 106.28 (2012-05-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.62% from 36.65, the lowest point on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: the current market is weak. The domestic demand of domestic ammonium sulphate is weak, and the supply of coking ammonium sulphate is sufficient, mainly in port. So far this month, the overall price of ammonium sulfate in China has been continuously reduced. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 520-720 yuan / ton, that in East China is 500-600 yuan, and that in North China is 450-600 yuan.

Industrial chain: in recent years, domestic sulfuric acid enterprises have more early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and supply is slightly tight. The domestic sulfuric acid plants have stable operation, relatively tight market supply, general downstream gas buying, and limited market transactions. Compound fertilizer enterprises are weak and stable. Due to the decline of cost and price, the market of compound fertilizer is not optimistic. The conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer has come to an end. At present, dealers are waiting for the introduction of winter storage policy.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%). There are 27 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%), titanium dioxide (- 3.58%) This week’s average was 0.18%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association believe that at present, the supply of ammonium sulphate market is sufficient, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the transaction situation is not ideal. Winter storage market has not yet opened, and the market is waiting for guidance. It is predicted that in the later stage, there will be a small fluctuation in the range of internal ammonium sulphate, and the main shock finishing of coking ammonium sulphate.