I. price trend

According to the data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on January 1, 2019, the average domestic market price of natural rubber (standard I) in China was 10650 yuan / ton, and on November 25, the average market price was 12116 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.77%. 12116 yuan / ton is the highest average market price of natural rubber in 2019 so far monitored by business agency. As can be seen from the above figure, since 2019, the market of natural rubber has fluctuated from 10000 yuan / ton to 12200 yuan / ton; there have been three times of high price: 12070 yuan / ton on March 4 is the first high price, 12020 on June 11 is the second high price, and the price of 12116 yuan / ton on November 25 is the current highest price in the year; two times of low price: 10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and the beginning of May is the second high price A low price, 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and the beginning of August is the lowest price this year. On the whole, the maximum price difference between high and low points since 2019 is about 1856 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of about 18%.

After eight years, the price of natural rubber fell by three quarters. In 2019, the market trend of “falling constantly and feebly” has gone through the first 11 and a half months. Finally, when it was over two-thirds in November, it stopped rising. As shown in the above figure, Shanghai rubber has a large amount of capital attention, and the market has been strongly pulled up. A set of “slightly visible” market has come to the industry. These days, the industry jokingly said that after waiting for more than half a year, it’s a few days to come. It can be said that the impact of economic environment and the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand make the price of natural rubber in the first 11 months of 2019 exhausted the market confidence and enthusiasm, and the current upward trend in a few days is a little relieved for the industry; the key is that in the later stage, the market generally believes that the locking of production will promote the further upward space of natural rubber market in the next days. However, the current price rise, strong wait-and-see mood at the purchasing end, the actual transaction is not very active.

II. Market analysis

In terms of supply, in domestic production areas, the local rubber cutting in Yunnan will be stopped at the end of November. At present, the amount of rubber is very small, and the cutting in Hainan will be stopped in mid December. Foreign producing areas, Thailand and Malaysia suffer from fungal diseases, which have a certain impact on their output; the latest report of the international tripartite rubber Council (ITRC) shows that in the first half of the year, 382000 hectares of rubber plantations in Indonesia are affected by fungal diseases, which is expected to lead to an expected decline of 540000 tons of rubber exports in Indonesia this year. Meanwhile, in the second half of the year, narativa, which borders Malaysia in the south of Thailand, was also attacked by fungal viruses. It is estimated that at least 50000 hectares of plantations will be affected. Combined with the damage in the three countries, ITRC believes that rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decrease by 800000 tons this year. On the whole, the gradual tightening of natural rubber production is the biggest price influencing factor for the market. Since the 20th, Shanghai rubber has risen sharply, and the spot price of natural rubber has gradually increased.

In terms of inventory, as of November 22, 2019, the natural rubber inventory in the previous period decreased by 11000 tons to 489500 tons, and warehouse receipts increased by 4300 tons to 460900 tons.

In terms of import and export, China’s customs data shows that in October 2019, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 500000 tons, down 8.4% from 546000 tons last month; from January to October, China’s total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5213000 tons. In Southeast Asia, Thailand’s natural rubber exports in October fell 24% year-on-year and rose 8% month on month, benefiting from the expiration of Thailand’s four-month export restriction order at the end of September, and Thailand said it would adopt policies to support rubber farmers.

In terms of demand, the data shows that in October, the production and sales of heavy trucks were 91000, 12.3% and 8.3% month on month, 25.8% and 14.1% year on year. From January to October, the production and sales of heavy trucks were 942000 and 980000, up 2% and 0.4% year on year. It is reported that the current operating rate of downstream tire enterprises is about 70%, and the influence of seasonal factors and environmental protection factors should also be taken into account in rubber purchasing demand.

III. future forecast

According to the natural rubber analysts of the business club, the output of the natural rubber market has been tightened in the near future, and the inventory has also been slightly reduced. The downstream demand is in the off-season stable period. The overall supply and demand Bureau has short-term favorable factors, and the recent trend continues to rise, but the fundamental contradiction cannot be fundamentally changed in the short term. Considering that the overall rubber price is still in a low price area, but in recent days, the price has increased by as much as 1000 yuan compared with the first and middle of November, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the actual results are average. In the future, we should consider the possibility of short-term technical callback, as well as the influence of merger factors that China’s domestic regions stop cutting in succession and Southeast Asia’s production areas come into peak season. In the later stage, the possibility of large decline is not great, the short-term callback pressure is large, the medium-term upward space is still available, and the long-term fundamental change in demand still needs to be noted.