I. price trend
This week’s domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market slightly pushed up, with the average price of 3876.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3890 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.34% in the week, 12.9% lower than the same period last year.
II. Analysis of influencing factors
Product: this week, the domestic LNG narrow range adjustment, the market trading atmosphere improved. As of November 15. The price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3840 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4000 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3650 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton The price of LPG produced from Luoyang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3900 yuan / ton.
This week, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market rose steadily, with no obvious fluctuation. The recovery of liquefied gas market has stimulated the mentality of propane downstream replenishment and driven the atmosphere of propane transaction. At the beginning of the week, international crude oil continued to fall. In the face of news that the market continued to be bullish, petrochemical enterprises cut prices, and most manufacturers followed suit. The downstream demand is flat, and the upstream traders mainly deliver goods. Thursday’s slight rise in crude oil boosted the market, but in the north of the heating season, terminal demand did not improve substantially. After the price reduction, the shipment has improved, the inventory pressure has been eased, and the manufacturers have increased slightly.
Industrial chain:
Dimethyl ether: the market price of methyl ether (Henan) continued to fall on Tuesday. The lower reaches are more bearish towards the future market and have no intention to enter the market for the falling market. They are cautious and wait-and-see. At present, there is no obvious improvement in market demand, and the shipment of manufacturers is not smooth. The inventory in Henan Province is increasing gradually, and the mentality is relatively tired. This week, xinlianxin repeatedly implemented the minimum guarantee policy. Most of the manufacturers fell below 3000 yuan / ton. At present, the price has fallen to the cost, and some enterprises’ profits are hanging upside down, reducing production to ease the pressure of sales and inventory.
Propane: this week, the propane market was adjusted, and the trading atmosphere was slightly improved. At the beginning of the week, the international crude oil fell continuously, and the trend of the liquefied gas market was weak. In addition, the intake gas resources were abundant and the price was low, which hit the enthusiasm of the downstream market. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the demand was average. The main enterprises delivered profits and the price fell slightly. Later in the week, with the slight increase of international crude oil and the decrease of propane price, the mentality of downstream replenishment was stimulated. The trading atmosphere was gradually improved. The market rose and fell mutually, and Shandong market recovered after the slight increase.
| ammonium persulfate |
Saudi Aramco announced in November CP that all of the propanbutane had been increased. Propane rose to $430 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month; butane rose $445 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month. The c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3844 yuan / ton, and butane is about 3916 yuan / ton.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are three kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three of which are liquefied natural gas (3.27%), MTBE (1.23%) and liquefied gas (0.34%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with methanol (- 4.10%), petroleum coke (- 3.96%) and dimethyl ether (- 2.98%) as the top three products. This week’s average was – 0.57%.
III. future forecast
Liquefied gas analysts believe that: the current price is relatively low, the downstream mentality has improved, replenishment into the market. The market transaction atmosphere turned warm, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was relieved. Market demand is still expected to increase, the seller’s mentality is strong, and the willingness to decline is not strong. It is expected to stabilize first and then rise next week.
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