According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 4th to 9th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 2245 yuan/ton to around 2265 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.93% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 8.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.27%. Driven by the expected reduction in imports and the unstable international situation, the port methanol market is mainly strengthening. Supported by rising port prices, increased olefin extraction, and downstream post holiday replenishment, prices in many parts of the domestic methanol market have risen.

As of the close on January 9th, 2026, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2605, opened at 2238 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2276 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2211 yuan/ton. It closed at 2273 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 30 yuan or 1.34% compared to the settlement of the previous trading day. The trading volume is 1553611, the position is 812955, and the daily increase is 57244.
On the cost side, the slow release of coal replenishment demand will suppress the rebound of coal prices and provide limited support for methanol prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, the demand for olefins in mainland China is relatively stable, while consumption in traditional sectors has declined, resulting in a widening gap between market supply and demand. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
Supply side, Inner Mongolia equipment maintenance; Restoration of Zhongyuan equipment; The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in production. However, due to a decrease in the effective production capacity base, the utilization rate of production capacity has increased month on month. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on January 8th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $321.5-322.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 87.5-88.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 259.5-260.5 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the methanol market is expected to experience a significant reduction in import expectations and a significant contraction in supply, which is expected to drive down inventory. The market may shift towards a tight balance pattern, with upward support for prices. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is expected to rise again.