According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of domestic butadiene market at the beginning of 2025 is 10800 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year is 8333.33 yuan/ton, with an annual decline of 22.84%. The butadiene market will show a trend of “first rising and then falling, fluctuating and weakening” in 2025, which can be divided into two stages throughout the year. In the first half of the year, it will rise first and then fall, and in the second half, it will fluctuate and decline.

From the monthly K-bar chart of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the butadiene market will experience more declines and less increases in 2025, with 5 months of upward movement and 7 months of downward movement. The highest increase was 19.33% in December and the highest decrease was 17.58% in April.
1、 Review of Butadiene Market in 2025
In the first half of the year, policies combined with supply initially increased and then decreased, resulting in an overall decline
In the first half of 2025, the butadiene market was greatly disturbed by short-term factors, and the core logic of loose supply and demand remained unchanged. Price fluctuations were dependent on equipment maintenance, policies, etc., and the overall trend first rose and then fell, with an overall downward trend.
January to April: Loose supply and demand dominate, prices fluctuate downward
The loose supply and demand led to a continuous decline in prices from January to April. On the supply side, Wanhua Phase II and ExxonMobil have gradually released a total of 400000 tons of new production capacity, bringing the industry’s total production capacity to 7.037 million tons. The import volume in January and February increased significantly year-on-year, and the inventory in East China ports remained high. The operating rate of the facilities remained stable at around 75%, indicating abundant supply. The demand side is disturbed by tariffs from China and the United States, putting pressure on the production of synthetic rubber and tire industries, and the ABS industry has high inventory, only maintaining the purchase of essential goods. The price dropped from 10800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 9200 yuan/ton at the end of April, reaching a phase low in the first half of the year.
May: Supply contraction combined with favorable policies led to a significant increase in prices
In May, the market reversed and prices quickly surged before oscillating. Driven by the supply side as the core, Hengli’s 140000 ton and Maoming Petrochemical’s 50000 ton units underwent centralized maintenance, resulting in a significant impact on production capacity. The inventory in East China ports dropped to a low level, and traders were reluctant to sell at high prices. Sinopec’s quotation was raised to 11100 yuan/ton. The demand side was boosted by the easing of tariffs between China and the United States, and synthetic rubber futures rose. The production rate of butadiene rubber increased to 74.7%, and downstream demand for replenishment was released, with a maximum monthly increase of over 22%.
June: Fundamentals are bearish, prices fluctuate and fall back
The heat subsided in June, and prices fluctuated and stabilized. The supply side maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, the supply of imported goods has increased, the inventory of East China ports has slightly increased, and the market has returned to loose. The high inventory of synthetic rubber on the demand side is highlighted, and the price of butadiene is weakening. Downstream consumers are resistant to high priced raw materials, and trading is sluggish
Second half of the year: Oversupply is the core contradiction, down 7.41%
July September: Supply surplus intensifies, prices continue to decline
The supply-demand contradiction in the market became prominent from July to September, and prices steadily declined. On the supply side, the refinery maintenance season has ended, and the operating rate of the equipment has rebounded to over 65%. The ExxonMobil Huizhou project is operating at full capacity, and coupled with the influx of 140000 tons of equipment from Lotte Chemical Indonesia into Asia, the supply pressure continues to increase. The import arbitrage window has opened, with European and American goods concentrated at ports, further exacerbating inventory pressure. On the demand side, the tire industry has a low operating rate, high inventory of synthetic rubber, and downstream only maintains rigid demand procurement. The price dropped from 8840 yuan/ton at the beginning of July to 7200 yuan/ton at the end of September, hitting a new low for the year.

October November: Weak supply-demand balance, market fluctuations within a certain range
The market entered a weak equilibrium state from October to November, with prices fluctuating narrowly. On the supply side, some equipment maintenance resulted in a slight decrease in production, and after the restart of Fushun Petrochemical and other equipment, the load was low. The inventory of East China ports was temporarily reduced to 24600 tons, easing some pressure. However, there are still expectations for imported cargo to arrive at the port, and the pattern of loose supply has not changed. On the demand side, the operating rate of the tire industry has rebounded to normal levels, and the trend of synthetic rubber futures is strong, providing temporary support for butadiene. The price fluctuates within the range of 7000-7500 yuan/ton, and trading is mainly based on low prices.
December: Short term positive news boosts, prices fluctuate and rebound
The market sentiment rebounded in December, with prices fluctuating upwards. On the supply side, Dongming Petrochemical’s equipment was temporarily shut down for maintenance and reduced supply. Mainstream enterprises raised their prices, and Sinopec’s listed price rose to 8300 yuan/ton, increasing the willingness of traders to raise prices. On the demand side, the combined rise of synthetic rubber futures and spot prices has led to a 4.03% increase in the price of butadiene rubber, which has improved the demand for raw material procurement. At the end of the month, the price rose to 8012.5 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 13.85%, boosted by the rise in foreign markets. However, high priced transactions have encountered obstacles, and weak terminal demand has constrained gains, resulting in a volatile consolidation trend in the market.
2、 Market outlook for butadiene in 2026:
Cost side: Low oil price oscillation in 2026, weak support for cost side
The conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation in the Middle East and other contradictions continue to ferment, which will have a direct impact on oil prices from time to time, triggering periodic fluctuations, but it is difficult to change the long-term trend. The pattern of oversupply on the supply side will continue until the first half of 2026. The IEA predicts that the global average daily surplus of oil will reach 4.09 million barrels, and shale oil in the United States is expected to increase production by 1.2 million barrels per day, leading the increment; Although OPEC+plans to suspend production in the first quarter of 2026, internal disagreements and insufficient idle capacity have limited regulatory effects, and the price center is likely to continue to shift downwards. Affected by the supply-demand game, geopolitical conflicts, and OPEC+policy regulation, Shengyi Society predicts that the overall crude oil market will show a “low-level oscillation” trend in 2026.
Supply side: Expected increase
The increase in butadiene production capacity in 2026 will be significantly reduced compared to 2025, and the industry will enter a period of capacity digestion. Affected by the promotion of the large-scale ethylene project in the early stage, it is expected to add about 500000 tons of production capacity for the whole year, which is significantly lower than the increase of 1.2 million tons in 2025. The total production capacity at the end of the year is expected to exceed 8.4 million tons. The newly added production capacity is mostly for integrated refining and chemical supporting facilities, concentrated in the East and South China regions. The stability of facility operation is strong, and it is expected that the annual industry operation rate will remain in the range of 68% -72%.

According to customs data statistics, the cumulative import volume of butadiene from January to November 2025 reached 449700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of over 50%. Among them, the monthly import volume in November was 56000 tons, with a net import volume of 56200 tons, a month on month increase of 69.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.14%, mainly due to the lack of exports in the month and a significant increase in import volume. The import pattern will tend to stabilize in 2026. With the release of domestic production capacity, the frequency of opening import arbitrage windows will decrease. It is expected that the annual import volume will remain at 450000-500000 tons, mainly to supplement the gap in high-end supply. At the same time, the maintenance of overseas facilities and the recovery of demand in the Asian market will constrain the impact of imported goods on the domestic market, and the pressure on the supply side will ease compared to 2025.
Demand side: Stable with upward trend
In the consumer sector, the core raw material for synthetic rubber is butadiene, and synthetic rubber produced from butadiene accounts for over 80% of the total production of synthetic rubber. Therefore, from the perspective of consumption structure, both butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber account for 30% of butadiene consumption, ABS accounts for 12% of butadiene consumption, latex and SBC account for 9% of butadiene consumption, and nitrile rubber accounts for 5%. In 2026, it is expected that the new production capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber will reach 450000 tons and 405000 tons respectively. Among them, the proportion of high-performance rubber such as solution polymerized butadiene rubber and rare earth butadiene rubber will increase, and the demand for new energy vehicle tires will grow, driving the steady release of butadiene demand. The ABS industry is expected to increase its capacity utilization rate and further supplement the demand for butadiene, as the demand for intelligent home appliances and lightweight automobiles upgrades.
Market forecast:
In the short term, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in January, there is generally a demand for pre holiday stocking in the downstream market. At the end of December, the butadiene market has already experienced a wave of upward trend, boosted by tight supply. Under the influence of downstream demand after January, it is expected that there is still some upward space.
In the long run, the market supply and demand pattern is shifting towards looseness, and prices are showing a trend of “downward oscillation and downward shift of focus”. The 620000 tons of new production capacity on the supply side throughout the year were mostly released in the fourth quarter. Although some units were delayed in production, it affected actual output. However, with the addition of 450000-500000 tons of imports throughout the year, the total supply will reach 6.18 million tons, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. As a result, the butadiene market has limited room for further growth, but downstream demand is still supported. It is expected that the butadiene market will continue to maintain a high volatility trend, and the focus will be on the operation of the downstream synthetic rubber market in the future.