Price trend

According to the data of the business club block list, the domestic PA66 market continued to be active in March, and the spot prices of various brands continued to rise. As of April 1, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 42900 yuan / ton, with an increase of 17.53% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and 96.34% compared with the same period last year. The price position has broken through the historical high.

Cause analysis

The supply contraction pattern of PA66 upstream products continued, and the capacity loss of crude oil and chemical enterprises affected by the cold disaster in the United States recovered slowly. Domestic import volume of adiponitrile and hexanediamine continued to be low, and quotation of relevant international large manufacturers remained high. At present, the supply of goods in the market is tight, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in the pattern. The upper spot price is mainly high.

The upstream price position was high, and the domestic PA66 price continued to rise in March. The range of spot offer is about 44000 yuan / ton to 44500 yuan / ton, and the quotation has broken through the historical high. The shortage of raw materials has caused polymerization enterprises not to get enough raw materials for production. At present, there is a general shortage of raw materials in domestic PA66 polymerization plants, and the overall operating rate of the industry has dropped to about half. Pingdingshan Shenma, Huafeng Group and other PA66 domestic manufacturers continue the strategy of no quotation to the outside world, and have no pressure on inventory, mainly supplying contract customers. The inventory in the hands of dealers further declined, and the operation was biased towards high report and reluctant to sell. Downstream demand is dominated by rigid demand procurement, and the shortage of non major customer factories may be even worse.

Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency said: in March, the domestic PA66 market continued to rise due to the continuous shortage of upstream supply, and the spot price rose again. In the short term, the supply improvement signal of upstream products is insufficient, and the cost pressure of PA66 is further increased. The market performance in the past week is mainly high and stable. It is expected that PA66 market will remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

In March 2021, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong first fell and then rose. In March, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong fell from 2183.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2070.00 yuan / ton on March 15, down 5.19%, and then rose to 2170.00 yuan / ton on March 31, up 4.83%. On the whole, the urea market in Shandong fell slightly in March, with a year-on-year increase of 26.41% at the end of the month, and the urea commodity index was 100.93 on March 31.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Upstream:

It can be seen from the above figure that the upstream market of urea rose as a whole in March: the ex factory price of liquid ammonia rose in March. The quoted price rose from 3360.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3936.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 576.67 yuan / ton, or 17.16%, up 22.38% compared with last year. In March, the ex factory price of liquefied natural gas fluctuated and rose. The quoted price rose from 2836.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3690.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up by 853.33 yuan / ton, or 30.08%. Compared with last year, it rose by 12.50% year on year. The price of upstream raw materials rose, and the cost of urea was well supported. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of urea.

（2） Downstream:

As can be seen from the above figure, the downstream market of urea rose and fell in March: the ex factory price of melamine rose in March. The quoted price rose from 7566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8716.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 1150.00 yuan / ton, or 15.20%, up 62.42% year on year compared with the same period last year. The price of wheat market fluctuated and fell in March. The quoted price decreased from 2552.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2536.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 0.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 5.49%. In March, the price of corn market fluctuated and fell. The quoted price dropped from 2887.14 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2831.43 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 1.93%, up 51.88% compared with the same period last year.

Demand side: agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer and plastic plate plants start load is acceptable, and the procurement of high price goods is cautious, with strong market wait-and-see atmosphere. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, with a slight increase, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient.

Futures: on March 13, India announced the first round of urea bidding in 2021, with the bid opening date of March 22 and the closing date of March 31. At that time, China was generally optimistic about this round of bidding, so on the first trading day after the announcement of the Indian bid, the futures contract 05 opened high, with an increase of 3.31%. After the bid opening on the evening of March 22, India revealed that it expected to bid about 1.3 million tons. Then the futures contract 05 started to rise continuously on March 23, and finally returned to the high of 2000 one month later on March 26. However, after the bid closing on March 31, the total transaction volume determined by the Indian side was only 802500 tons, including 265000 tons on the east coast and 537500 tons on the west coast, which was far from the previous 1.3 million tons, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. Therefore, on March 31, the urea futures contract 05 continued to decline after it opened significantly lower, and finally closed at 1947 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.09% on that day. India’s bid did not meet expectations, some export hopes failed, the disk reaction was more pessimistic, and the domestic port inventory was high, some port sources may return.

（3） Products:

In March, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong first fell and then rose.

3、 Future forecast

Urea prices are expected to fall slightly in early April. In terms of demand: agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer and plastic plate plants have fair starting load, and they are cautious in purchasing high price goods, with strong market wait-and-see atmosphere and no bright spot in demand for the time being. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, with a slight increase, and the daily output is about 160000 tons, gradually increasing. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient. Domestic urea supply and demand is still weak.

The domestic cocoon and silk market has been fluctuating upward for nearly 11 months, and it still maintains a rising trend in March 2021. At present, the average price of dry cocoon market is 127000 yuan / ton, and the average price of raw silk market is 396500 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 12% in a single month, and an increase of more than 50% compared with the beginning of May 2020

March 31, 2021 – March 1, 2021 – up and down – May 1, 2020 – up and down

Dry cocoon: 127000 112500 12.89% 80050 58.65%

Raw silk 396500 349000 13.61% 260000 52.50%

On spring cocoon market, Huazhou, Guangdong and other regions, after sporadic listing last week, ushered in batch listing on the 29th, with the purchase price of about 52-54 yuan per kilogram. The first batch of spring silkworms in Yizhou of Guangxi entered the fourth instar, and a small number entered the fifth instar.

With the cocoons coming into the market in Xuwen, Yunfu, Yangchun and other places in Guangdong Province, some silk reeling enterprises have begun to sample the first batch of fresh cocoons this year. Recently, new cocoons were loaded into the market, and the price is about 10000 yuan / ton (depending on the grade). The loading price of fresh pupae from factories in Guangxi and Guangdong: class a 10000-11000 yuan / ton, class B 9000-10000 yuan / ton, class C 8000-9000 yuan / ton. The loading price of Guangxi dry and wet pupae factory: 5400 yuan / ton for Grade A, 4800 yuan / ton for Grade B and 4000 yuan / ton for grade C. The selling price in Shandong is about 13000 yuan for Grade A, 12000 yuan for Grade B, 9000-11500 yuan for Grade C fresh pupae and 4500-5000 yuan for Grade C dry and wet pupae.

In foreign markets, due to the holiday in Thailand, the delivery time was delayed until April 18, with sufficient supply. The order price is basically: class a 2100-2200 US dollars, class B 2000-2100 US dollars. South Korea’s sales price is around 1350 US dollars, Vietnam’s 16000 Dong / kg, and South Korea’s dry and wet pupae are 1300 US dollars / ton.

In terms of exports, according to customs statistics, 370.832 tons of fresh pupae were exported in January this year, with the value of 798332 US dollars. 628 tons of dry and wet pupae, worth 588120 US dollars. In February, 104.5 tons of fresh pupae were exported, with a value of US $234700. The export of dry and wet pupae is 327.826 tons, with the value of 519359 US dollars.

Business analysts believe that the current downstream procurement is generally cautious, especially the transaction of high-quality raw silk is less, the purchase quantity is controlled, and the sales inventory is the main, which limits the space for the current spring cocoon purchase price to rise again. In the case that the terminal demand and the supply situation of the new cocoon season are not clear, the price increase of cocoon silk will narrow down.

1、 Price trend

The domestic propylene (Shandong) market was down this week, according to the data of the business club’s block list. At the beginning of the week, the weekly high price was 8091 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the weekly low price was 7852 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.95%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business society, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It was generally stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price began to decline on the 4th, and generally rebounded on the 8th. The price rose 150-250 yuan / ton in two days, and then generally stabilized. The price rose about 50 yuan / ton again on the 12th, and continued to rise 50 yuan / ton on the 15th, starting from the 16th Since the 18th, the price has entered the downward channel again, with a daily drop of 100-150 yuan / ton. The price has remained stable since the 25th. The current market transaction has dropped to 7800-8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7800 yuan / ton. U.S. propylene 18, 19, the external market dropped sharply, also has a certain impact on the domestic market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair.

On March 25, the crude oil price had a certain decline, which had a certain suppression effect on the cost of propylene.

PP prices fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 2.16%. The futures market was cold, which had a negative impact on propylene.

This week, the price of acrylic acid remained stable, with little impact on propylene.

This week, the market of propylene oxide is also stable, with little impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market rebounded after a slight decline this week, with a weekly decline of 1.67% and a weekly amplitude of 3.89%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic n-butanol price continued to rise, with a weekly increase of 4.93%, which played a certain role in the propylene market.

This week, the price of isooctanol rose after falling in the second half of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.77% and a weekly amplitude of 3.34%.

Isopropanol prices rose at the end of the week, up 1.12%, with little impact on propylene.

Phenol Market in East China stepped down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.84%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

East China acetone market this week, manufacturers offer all do not move, there is no great impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of Shangshe chemical branch thinks: Overall, the international production has recovered slightly, the domestic inventory is small, the crude oil price fluctuates up and down, and the downstream operating rate is acceptable, but the market is mostly cold, and the propylene is still at a high level recently. It is expected that the market will be stabilized due to the influence of crude oil in the future.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of Dy is still rising, and the rare earth market is still hot. As of March 26, the price of dysprosium oxide is 3.05 million yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 3.02 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal is 3.85 million yuan / ton, and the domestic price of terbium is still high. On March 26, the domestic price of terbium oxide is 9.875 million yuan / ton, and the price of terbium metal is 12.5 million yuan / ton.

Domestic heavy rare earth market prices continue to rise, the main factor is the sharp contradiction between supply and demand.

On the supply side: Myanmar has no import source, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to the continuous rise of heavy rare earth prices. In February 2021, the opinions of the State Council on supporting the revitalization and development of old revolutionary base areas in the new era proposed to promote the construction of “China’s rare earth Valley” and study the policies for the purchase and storage of medium and heavy rare earth and tungsten resources, Medium and heavy rare earths account for a large proportion of annual output in the purchase and storage plan, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earths.

Demand: the downstream demand is expanding, and the demand for permanent magnet has remained high recently. New energy vehicles have been on fire from 2020 to 2021. According to the insiders, the rare earth gap is likely to continue throughout 2021. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to break the historical record of single month sales. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile industry, in the first and middle of March, 11 key enterprises completed 1.267 million vehicles, an increase of 1.2 times over the same period last year. Among them, 1.013 million passenger cars were produced, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times; 254000 commercial vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 1 times. Downstream demand rose, it is said that the demand gap has been increasing. Due to the tight supply of terbium series market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the market price of terbium series has remained at a high level.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, on March 25, the rare earth index was 580 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 42.00% from the highest point of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 114.02% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The domestic rare earth index began to rise in November 2020. In the past four months, the rare earth index of business community has risen by about 230 points. Recently, the domestic market price of light rare earth has dropped slightly. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles have increased, and terminal industries such as wind power and electronic products have developed rapidly. As the epidemic situation slows down, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers continues, and demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The demand for NdFeB is still high. The high prosperity of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics industry also promotes the rise of rare earth prices. According to the data, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector (nearly 40% for traditional vehicles and 12% for new energy vehicles), while the rest, such as wind power, consumer electronics, variable frequency air conditioning and energy-saving electrical appliances, account for 8% – 10%. Downstream demand rose, domestic heavy rare earth market prices continued to rise.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which is related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mining (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth ore and 11490 tons of rock ore The index of type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining will continue to be controlled. The state policy is favorable, and the market price of rare earth will continue to rise.

With the continuous volume of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand for rare earth will continue to increase, which is expected to drive the further growth of demand. The global supply gap of rare earth is expected to continue to expand, the domestic demand for rare earth will remain high, the domestic supply of rare earth is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market will be sharp. Business analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market in the future Prices may continue to rise.

Commodity name: urea

Latest price (March 25): 2126.67 yuan / ton

On March 25, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose, up 0.16% from yesterday’s. The price of the bid was announced yesterday, the lowest bid price of the east coast was USD 379.87/t CFR, the lowest bid price on the west coast was US $380.18/t CFR, and the total bid volume was 1926000 tons. The east coast of India is suitable for China supply, and the conversion price to domestic port is about 2210 yuan / ton, which is not different from the current domestic price. It is reported that the domestic urea export volume may be about 800000-90000 tons. And recently, the nitrogen fertilizer plant with an annual output of 1.7 million tons of urea exploded in India. The medium scalar may have increased or even bid again in April, and the market mentality has improved.

The market in the future is expected to increase slightly in the short-term urea Market: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2150 yuan / ton.

Since last Thursday’s plunge in oil prices, oil prices fell sharply again on the 23rd, with WTI crude oil down more than 6%, mainly due to the upgrading of epidemic prevention and control measures in many European countries and the slow progress of vaccine promotion, which cast a shadow on the prospects of economic recovery. On top of that, crude oil inventories jumped last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). In addition, at the hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, Yellen hinted that the corporate tax would be raised, and the US stock market dived in the end of the day.

On Tuesday, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $57.76/barrel, down $3.80, or 6.17%. Brent crude oil futures main contract settlement price at 60.86 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 3.68 U.S. dollars or 5.70%.

Epidemic situation in Europe

The number of new infections in many European countries has risen again, and the major European economies have re implemented the blockade measures. Among them, Germany announced to extend the blockade period. On 22-23, the meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the governors of 16 federal States concluded that the current blockade measures would be extended to April 18, and a stricter “long holiday blockade” would be implemented during the traditional holiday period from April 1 to 5. During this period, all stores and related social places in Germany will be closed, and any party activities in public places will be strictly prohibited. The Netherlands also announced the extension of the ban. In addition, the French government is still tracking the epidemic situation in various places, and makron said publicly that he would not rule out new prevention and control measures in areas where the situation worsened. At present, a new round of “ban” is being implemented in 16 provinces of France.

With the resurgence of the epidemic, vaccine supply and vaccination process in Europe are stagnant. Emer cook, executive director of the European drug administration, was questioned by European Parliament on the vaccination of the new crown vaccine in the European Union on the 23rd local time. On the same day, Cook said that the European Union must make every effort to jointly improve vaccine production capacity so as to increase vaccine production. She said the production of the new vaccine will affect vaccination progress across Europe. It is reported that the EU started the new crown vaccination in December last year, but the vaccination progress is far lower than that of the UK, the United States, Israel and other countries.

Crude oil stocks continue to increase

U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week and jumped by 2.9 million barrels in the week ending March 19, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday, after analysts surveyed predicted a decrease of about 300000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels, compared with analysts’ forecast of 1.2 million barrels. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 246000 barrels and are expected to decrease by 100000 barrels.

Last week, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) recorded a continuous rise in crude oil and fuel inventories. The EIA crude oil inventories increased by 2.396 million barrels, expected to increase by 2.7 million barrels, and the previous value increased by 13.798 million barrels. The EIA refined oil inventories increased by 255 000 barrels, expected to decrease by 2.6 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 5.504 million barrels. The EIA gasoline inventories increased by 472 million barrels This is expected to decrease by 3.5 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 11.869 million barrels.

Due to the storm hit by the U.S. refinery, it is still in the recovery stage, and the operating rate is still at a low level. In addition, due to the relatively high oil price, the number of active drilling rigs for oil and natural gas in US energy companies continued to increase. Last week, the number of active drilling rigs increased by 9 to 411, the highest level since April last year. Shale oil production has also led to accumulation of crude oil. Under the background of strict production control by OPEC, US shale oil has become the biggest risk factor in the supply side.

Under the background of economic recovery, the upward trend of oil price is still possible

Crude oil analysts of business news agency believe that the recent decline in oil prices is mainly due to the repeated European epidemic and emotional stimulation. However, the market generally believes that this is only a short-term impact. With the acceleration of vaccination in the later stage, the process of global economic recovery can still be expected. The overall positive effect of oil price on the demand side can also be predicted. In addition, OPEC’s production control policy still provides the main support for the supply side. During the implementation period before the end of April, the crude oil supply side has little change.

In the medium term, on the one hand, we should pay attention to the results of the new production control policy of the OPEC + ministerial meeting in early April. Previously, based on the expectation of the high oil price market, OPEC + will begin to relax production reduction. However, the oil price has undergone downward adjustment, and the policy may continue in the later stage. In addition, we should also pay attention to the changes in the epidemic situation. The recovery prospects of European economies in the later stage are still the key points of oil price demand. In the medium and long term, the overall rising logic of oil price remains unchanged.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in Shandong Province dropped from 14700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13866.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 5.67%, up 131.11% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of ISO octanol fell this week, with the commodity index of ISO octanol at 101.96 on March 19.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of manufacturers’ quotations, the factory quotations of mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers in Shandong fell this week: Jianlan chemical offered 13500 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, down 1500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi offered 14000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, up 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng offered 14100 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this week, down 1500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week Down 1300 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of ISO octanol fell slightly this week, with the quoted price falling from 8566.64 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8466.64 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.17%, and a year-on-year increase of 47.48%. The upstream raw material market prices fell slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Isooctanol downstream market, this week DOP factory prices fell slightly. DOP quotation fell from 12525.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.20%, up 83.75% year on year. Downstream DOP prices fell, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement was general, and the demand for ISO octanol was general. The future market operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late March, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the raw material support was weak, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened, and the supply of isooctanol was general. Isooctanol analysts of business society think: in late March, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the isooctanol market in Shandong may fall slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, this week, the quotation of domestic industrial grade potassium nitrate was 4200.00 yuan / ton, the current price has increased by 0.60% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 3.45% year on year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market was stable, and the trading atmosphere of potassium nitrate Market was general. The downstream manufacturers slightly resisted the high consolidation of potassium nitrate Market, and the market transaction was difficult. The potassium nitrate Market was temporarily stable. According to the statistics of the business society, this week, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4000-4500 yuan / ton (quotation for reference only), and the quotations were different according to different procurement situations.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers Rose: on March 19, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2100 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On March 19, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted about 2400 yuan per ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. In the near future, the KCl plant has plans to reduce production, the start-up of the plant is relatively low, the market is high, and the cost support is strong.

In the near future, the price of potassium chloride market is high and firm, and the supply of goods is low. Supported by the cost, it is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will rise mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

US $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan finally implemented

On the morning of March 6, the US Senate voted 50:49 to approve Biden’s $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan. On March 10 local time, the house of representatives of the United States voted to pass the US $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan passed by the Senate. On March 11 local time, US President Biden signed the US $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan at the White House, marking the formal entry into force of the bill. What will be the impact of the US economic stimulus plan on the macro economy and what will be the future of the zinc market?

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, since March 7, the price of zinc has been fluctuating and rising. From March 11 to March 15, the price of zinc has continued to rise for three consecutive trading days. Except for the slight drop in the price of zinc on March 10, the price of zinc has continued to rise in a week. As of March 15, the average price of zinc was 22120.00 yuan / ton, which was significantly higher than that of 21190.00 yuan / ton on March 7, with an increase of 4.39%.

Global stock market soars

Boosted by the US $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, the US stock market continued to climb in recent days. As of March 15, us time, the Dow Jones index rose for four consecutive trading days. Affected by the rise of the US stock market, the world’s major stock markets also followed the rise. The positive expectation of the global macro-economy is obvious, which is good for the zinc market in the future.

Asian stock market trend on March 15

As can be seen from the K-line chart of the Shanghai stock index, affected by the landing of the US economic stimulus plan, the Shanghai stock index rose. However, since the US Senate passed the stimulus plan on March 6, the Shanghai stock index fell sharply for three consecutive trading days. After that, with the landing of the US stimulus plan, the Shanghai stock index rose continuously, but still fell slightly on March 15. The performance of the Shanghai stock index reflects that the Chinese market lacks confidence in the effect of the US economic stimulus plan. It is worried that China’s a shares may be affected by the US dollar spillover effect. The global inflation is warming up, and the global inflation expectation is rising, which will inevitably increase the further surge of international commodity prices. However, the rapid surge of these commodity prices will also bring certain impact on China’s economic recovery It also has a negative impact on global economic recovery. The global economic recovery is uncertain in the future, and the global zinc market demand is generally warming up, but the increase may be difficult to meet expectations.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, believes that: the US economic stimulus plan has been implemented, and its impact on the global economy is continuing to ferment. Global inflation expectations are increasing, commodity prices are expected to rise, and zinc market is following the rise. The global economy is recovering slowly, and zinc market demand is expected to rise. However, affected by the US economic stimulus plan, the global economic recovery speed is uncertain, and zinc market demand is increasing Rising expectations may be reduced, the overall zinc market still has a rising range in the future, but the rising power of zinc market is insufficient, and there is no sustained support for the rise of zinc market. Zinc market is expected to rise slightly in the future.