Since last Thursday’s plunge in oil prices, oil prices fell sharply again on the 23rd, with WTI crude oil down more than 6%, mainly due to the upgrading of epidemic prevention and control measures in many European countries and the slow progress of vaccine promotion, which cast a shadow on the prospects of economic recovery. On top of that, crude oil inventories jumped last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). In addition, at the hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, Yellen hinted that the corporate tax would be raised, and the US stock market dived in the end of the day.
On Tuesday, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $57.76/barrel, down $3.80, or 6.17%. Brent crude oil futures main contract settlement price at 60.86 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 3.68 U.S. dollars or 5.70%.
Epidemic situation in Europe
The number of new infections in many European countries has risen again, and the major European economies have re implemented the blockade measures. Among them, Germany announced to extend the blockade period. On 22-23, the meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the governors of 16 federal States concluded that the current blockade measures would be extended to April 18, and a stricter “long holiday blockade” would be implemented during the traditional holiday period from April 1 to 5. During this period, all stores and related social places in Germany will be closed, and any party activities in public places will be strictly prohibited. The Netherlands also announced the extension of the ban. In addition, the French government is still tracking the epidemic situation in various places, and makron said publicly that he would not rule out new prevention and control measures in areas where the situation worsened. At present, a new round of “ban” is being implemented in 16 provinces of France.
With the resurgence of the epidemic, vaccine supply and vaccination process in Europe are stagnant. Emer cook, executive director of the European drug administration, was questioned by European Parliament on the vaccination of the new crown vaccine in the European Union on the 23rd local time. On the same day, Cook said that the European Union must make every effort to jointly improve vaccine production capacity so as to increase vaccine production. She said the production of the new vaccine will affect vaccination progress across Europe. It is reported that the EU started the new crown vaccination in December last year, but the vaccination progress is far lower than that of the UK, the United States, Israel and other countries.
Crude oil stocks continue to increase
U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week and jumped by 2.9 million barrels in the week ending March 19, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday, after analysts surveyed predicted a decrease of about 300000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels, compared with analysts’ forecast of 1.2 million barrels. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 246000 barrels and are expected to decrease by 100000 barrels.
Last week, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) recorded a continuous rise in crude oil and fuel inventories. The EIA crude oil inventories increased by 2.396 million barrels, expected to increase by 2.7 million barrels, and the previous value increased by 13.798 million barrels. The EIA refined oil inventories increased by 255 000 barrels, expected to decrease by 2.6 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 5.504 million barrels. The EIA gasoline inventories increased by 472 million barrels This is expected to decrease by 3.5 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 11.869 million barrels.
Due to the storm hit by the U.S. refinery, it is still in the recovery stage, and the operating rate is still at a low level. In addition, due to the relatively high oil price, the number of active drilling rigs for oil and natural gas in US energy companies continued to increase. Last week, the number of active drilling rigs increased by 9 to 411, the highest level since April last year. Shale oil production has also led to accumulation of crude oil. Under the background of strict production control by OPEC, US shale oil has become the biggest risk factor in the supply side.
Under the background of economic recovery, the upward trend of oil price is still possible
Crude oil analysts of business news agency believe that the recent decline in oil prices is mainly due to the repeated European epidemic and emotional stimulation. However, the market generally believes that this is only a short-term impact. With the acceleration of vaccination in the later stage, the process of global economic recovery can still be expected. The overall positive effect of oil price on the demand side can also be predicted. In addition, OPEC’s production control policy still provides the main support for the supply side. During the implementation period before the end of April, the crude oil supply side has little change.
In the medium term, on the one hand, we should pay attention to the results of the new production control policy of the OPEC + ministerial meeting in early April. Previously, based on the expectation of the high oil price market, OPEC + will begin to relax production reduction. However, the oil price has undergone downward adjustment, and the policy may continue in the later stage. In addition, we should also pay attention to the changes in the epidemic situation. The recovery prospects of European economies in the later stage are still the key points of oil price demand. In the medium and long term, the overall rising logic of oil price remains unchanged.
| http://www.pva-china.net |