1、 Price trend
In March 2021, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong first fell and then rose. In March, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong fell from 2183.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2070.00 yuan / ton on March 15, down 5.19%, and then rose to 2170.00 yuan / ton on March 31, up 4.83%. On the whole, the urea market in Shandong fell slightly in March, with a year-on-year increase of 26.41% at the end of the month, and the urea commodity index was 100.93 on March 31.
2、 Market analysis
| PVA |
（1） Upstream:
It can be seen from the above figure that the upstream market of urea rose as a whole in March: the ex factory price of liquid ammonia rose in March. The quoted price rose from 3360.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3936.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 576.67 yuan / ton, or 17.16%, up 22.38% compared with last year. In March, the ex factory price of liquefied natural gas fluctuated and rose. The quoted price rose from 2836.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3690.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up by 853.33 yuan / ton, or 30.08%. Compared with last year, it rose by 12.50% year on year. The price of upstream raw materials rose, and the cost of urea was well supported. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of urea.
（2） Downstream:
As can be seen from the above figure, the downstream market of urea rose and fell in March: the ex factory price of melamine rose in March. The quoted price rose from 7566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8716.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 1150.00 yuan / ton, or 15.20%, up 62.42% year on year compared with the same period last year. The price of wheat market fluctuated and fell in March. The quoted price decreased from 2552.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2536.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 0.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 5.49%. In March, the price of corn market fluctuated and fell. The quoted price dropped from 2887.14 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2831.43 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 1.93%, up 51.88% compared with the same period last year.
Demand side: agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer and plastic plate plants start load is acceptable, and the procurement of high price goods is cautious, with strong market wait-and-see atmosphere. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, with a slight increase, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient.
Futures: on March 13, India announced the first round of urea bidding in 2021, with the bid opening date of March 22 and the closing date of March 31. At that time, China was generally optimistic about this round of bidding, so on the first trading day after the announcement of the Indian bid, the futures contract 05 opened high, with an increase of 3.31%. After the bid opening on the evening of March 22, India revealed that it expected to bid about 1.3 million tons. Then the futures contract 05 started to rise continuously on March 23, and finally returned to the high of 2000 one month later on March 26. However, after the bid closing on March 31, the total transaction volume determined by the Indian side was only 802500 tons, including 265000 tons on the east coast and 537500 tons on the west coast, which was far from the previous 1.3 million tons, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. Therefore, on March 31, the urea futures contract 05 continued to decline after it opened significantly lower, and finally closed at 1947 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.09% on that day. India’s bid did not meet expectations, some export hopes failed, the disk reaction was more pessimistic, and the domestic port inventory was high, some port sources may return.
（3） Products:
In March, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong first fell and then rose.
3、 Future forecast
Urea prices are expected to fall slightly in early April. In terms of demand: agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer and plastic plate plants have fair starting load, and they are cautious in purchasing high price goods, with strong market wait-and-see atmosphere and no bright spot in demand for the time being. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, with a slight increase, and the daily output is about 160000 tons, gradually increasing. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient. Domestic urea supply and demand is still weak.
| http://www.pva-china.net |