It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of Dy is still rising, and the rare earth market is still hot. As of March 26, the price of dysprosium oxide is 3.05 million yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 3.02 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal is 3.85 million yuan / ton, and the domestic price of terbium is still high. On March 26, the domestic price of terbium oxide is 9.875 million yuan / ton, and the price of terbium metal is 12.5 million yuan / ton.

Domestic heavy rare earth market prices continue to rise, the main factor is the sharp contradiction between supply and demand.

On the supply side: Myanmar has no import source, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to the continuous rise of heavy rare earth prices. In February 2021, the opinions of the State Council on supporting the revitalization and development of old revolutionary base areas in the new era proposed to promote the construction of “China’s rare earth Valley” and study the policies for the purchase and storage of medium and heavy rare earth and tungsten resources, Medium and heavy rare earths account for a large proportion of annual output in the purchase and storage plan, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earths.

Demand: the downstream demand is expanding, and the demand for permanent magnet has remained high recently. New energy vehicles have been on fire from 2020 to 2021. According to the insiders, the rare earth gap is likely to continue throughout 2021. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to break the historical record of single month sales. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile industry, in the first and middle of March, 11 key enterprises completed 1.267 million vehicles, an increase of 1.2 times over the same period last year. Among them, 1.013 million passenger cars were produced, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times; 254000 commercial vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 1 times. Downstream demand rose, it is said that the demand gap has been increasing. Due to the tight supply of terbium series market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the market price of terbium series has remained at a high level.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, on March 25, the rare earth index was 580 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 42.00% from the highest point of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 114.02% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The domestic rare earth index began to rise in November 2020. In the past four months, the rare earth index of business community has risen by about 230 points. Recently, the domestic market price of light rare earth has dropped slightly. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles have increased, and terminal industries such as wind power and electronic products have developed rapidly. As the epidemic situation slows down, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers continues, and demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The demand for NdFeB is still high. The high prosperity of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics industry also promotes the rise of rare earth prices. According to the data, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector (nearly 40% for traditional vehicles and 12% for new energy vehicles), while the rest, such as wind power, consumer electronics, variable frequency air conditioning and energy-saving electrical appliances, account for 8% – 10%. Downstream demand rose, domestic heavy rare earth market prices continued to rise.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which is related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mining (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth ore and 11490 tons of rock ore The index of type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining will continue to be controlled. The state policy is favorable, and the market price of rare earth will continue to rise.

With the continuous volume of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand for rare earth will continue to increase, which is expected to drive the further growth of demand. The global supply gap of rare earth is expected to continue to expand, the domestic demand for rare earth will remain high, the domestic supply of rare earth is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market will be sharp. Business analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market in the future Prices may continue to rise.