1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the overall price of toluene has shown a stepwise downward trend this month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7130 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, it was 7060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton or 0.98% compared to the beginning of the month.

In terms of crude oil, in the first half of the year, the United States House of Representatives passed the bill related to the Debt limit of the United States, and several officials of the Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate hikes would be suspended in June. Investors’ concerns about the economic outlook declined; There have been disagreements within OPEC+regarding the need for further production cuts. In addition to Saudi Arabia’s announcement of an additional 1 million barrels per day reduction in July, which is beneficial for oil prices, countries such as Russia, Iran, and Brazil have higher exports, which weakens the effectiveness of OPEC’s production cuts; The IEA predicts that oil supply will continue to be tight next year, especially in the second half of 2024.

In the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in June, which met expectations. There is still a possibility of interest rate hikes in July, and market risks remain; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America; On the 24th, the “24-hour mutiny” by Russian mercenary Wagner sparked global attention, and the Wagner incident intensified concerns in the international crude oil market about the stability of Russian oil exports; Following the Wagner incident, the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified; On the evening of the 28th, EIA commercial crude oil inventory significantly decreased, with a decrease of 9.6 million barrels, exceeding market expectations. US crude oil exports increased significantly, boosting international oil prices.

The crude oil price fluctuated and fluctuated in June. On June 30th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil by the trading company was 69.56 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.14% compared to the beginning of this month (69.46 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 74.24 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.72% compared to the beginning of this month (73.71 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream: In terms of TDI, this month’s TDI price showed an upward trend before June 21, but slowly declined at the end of the month. On June 1, the TDI benchmark price was 16200 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the price rose to 17300 yuan/ton. During the month, it increased by 1100 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.79%. This month, the domestic TDI market rebounded after rising. In the early stage, merchants were cautious and their intention to sell was reduced. The offer was tentative and upward. In the later off-season, demand was poor in the downstream market, and the enthusiasm for buying in the market was average. There were few new orders traded on the market, and the main downstream sponge industry saw a significant reduction in volume. In the early stage, there were many stocks in the downstream, and high prices suppressed purchasing sentiment.

Downstream, the overall domestic PX price remained stable this month, with a slight increase at the end of the month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of PX was 8200 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the price was 8250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61%. The supply of PX was normal in June, and the demand for oil transfer in Europe and America has rebounded since June. The price of raw material MX has been strong, boosting market sentiment. The operating rate of domestic PX is over 70%, but there is little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some PX devices, and PX prices have slightly increased.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fluctuated this month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8409.0/ton, and on June 30th, the price was 8468.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 59.6 yuan/ton or 0.71% compared to the beginning of the month. The use of oil for car air conditioners in summer has increased, and during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the radius and frequency of private car travel have increased, leading to an increase in gasoline market demand and an increase in oil prices; Operators maintain a cautious attitude towards replenishment and prioritize market transactions based on demand; Towards the end of the month, the sales pressure of the main units is high, and domestic gasoline prices are under pressure and declining.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The inflation level in the United States is still higher than expected, and Powell stated that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates twice more this year, and does not rule out the possibility of continuous rate hikes; The European Central Bank also stated that it cannot end the interest rate hike cycle in the short term, and the expectation of overseas demand remains weak against the backdrop of high interest rates, which limits the upward space for oil prices; With Saudi Arabia approaching a production reduction of 1 million barrels per day in July, oil prices have been supported; Recently, the international crude oil market has continued a long short game trend. Due to the impact of fundamentals, downstream terminal demand for toluene is weak, and the market is cautious. It is expected that toluene will continue to weaken and consolidate next month. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and gasoline, the dynamics of toluene units, and the impact of downstream demand on prices.