1、 Analysis of Acetic Acid Industry Chain
| PVA |
From the price rise and fall chart of the acetic acid industry chain in June, it can be seen that the entire range of acetic acid and downstream products has declined. Methanol (0.85%) in the upstream of the industrial chain has not changed much, and the cost side benefits are not much, but the downstream cost pressure is becoming increasingly severe. The decline in acetic acid was significant, exceeding 10%. The main downstream products continued their downward trend, with prices of ethyl acetate (-1.95%) and butyl ester (-4.96%) falling.
2、 Analysis of upstream acetic acid market trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of acetic acid fell in June, especially in the second half of the month, with an accelerated decline and a straight downward trend. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3250 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 2880 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 10.36% during the month.
In June, the domestic acetic acid market was weak and weak, with low raw material prices and insufficient cost support. Downstream demand on the demand side was not good, and purchasing in the market immediately needed to follow up. In the early stage, there was maintenance of acetic acid plants on the market, but due to light market trading, the performance of acetic acid rose weakly, and the transaction center remained low. In the later stage, the maintenance plants restarted, and the market supply increased. The confidence of operators was insufficient, resulting in a significant decline in acetic acid prices. As of the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of East China acetic acid is in the range of 2800-2900 yuan/ton.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
3、 Analysis of the market trend of ethyl acetate
This month, domestic ethyl acetate saw a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly decline of ethyl acetate was 1.95%. Towards the end of the month, the market price of ethyl acetate was between 6500-6650 yuan/ton.
Specifically, in June, the trading atmosphere for ethyl acetate was light, with downstream procurement being mainly in demand. The ethyl acetate markets in East, Central, and South China all showed varying degrees of decline, and the market stabilized at the end of the month, accompanied by slight upward movements by some manufacturers in East China. At the end of the month, prices have increased to varying degrees. The market supply and demand pattern has improved. But throughout June, due to weak demand, overall market shipments remained at a low level. The prices of raw materials and acetic acid have plummeted significantly this month, with a drop of over 10%. Weak cost support.
4、 Analysis of the Market Trend of Butyl Acetate
This month, the domestic butyl acetate experienced a significant decline, mainly due to cost bearishness, a decline in raw materials, and weak supply and demand. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the monthly decline of butyl acetate is 4.96%. At the end of the month, the domestic butyl ester price range is between 7200 to 7400 yuan/ton.
Specifically, the significant decline in raw material acetic acid this month has brought downward momentum to downstream butyl esters. Due to the easing of cost pressure, enterprises are more inclined to sell at reduced prices in the face of sluggish demand. More importantly, due to the weak supply and demand side, the price of butyl ester has not emerged from the haze. Downstream procurement is more on demand, and manufacturers are more on demand, resulting in sluggish transactions. However, the operating rate of the butyl acetate industry has remained low, generally below 40%, and the price increase behavior of manufacturers has to some extent alleviated the downward trend of butyl acetate.
5、 Future prospects of the acetic acid industry chain
Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that in the short term, the market is intertwined with long and short positions, and the cost side may face a long and short transition. In the early stage, the price of acetic acid has significantly decreased, and currently, the adjustment is basically in place, and the market has the power to stabilize and rebound. It is expected that the cost side may face favorable conditions in the later stage. However, from the perspective of both supply and demand, the market remains weak. Supply and demand are basically maintaining a weak balance, especially downstream ethyl and butyl ester enterprises with generally low operating rates. Social inventory is generally not high. It is expected that there will be little significant decline in prices in the later stage, and there is a high probability of volatility.
| http://www.pva-china.net |