1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business agency, the price of toluene rose rapidly in the first ten days of this month, hitting a new high in the year; It began to decline weakly in the middle of the month and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The price of toluene was 8090 yuan / ton on June 1 and 8860 yuan / ton on June 28, up 9.52% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 53.79%.
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2、 Analysis and comment
Due to the strong trend of crude oil, the price of toluene in the outer market continued to rise in the first ten days of June, domestic toluene exports remained strong, domestic oversupply eased, and prices continued to rise. However, the speculation on the price of toluene in the external market lacked sustainability. Later, with the decline of crude oil and the external market, the market focus turned to domestic demand. The actual domestic demand for toluene was limited, the focus of negotiation weakened, and the price fell weakly.
In the external market, the export arbitrage window was opened, and the volatility fell after the broad rise of toluene in Asia in the external market this month. On June 28, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $1225 / ton, up $125 / ton, or 11.36%.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil continued to fluctuate in a wide range this month. Tight supply and increased demand are expected to support crude oil prices, but the interest rate hikes of central banks across the country led to market concerns about economic recession. As of June 28, Brent fell by $4.86 per barrel, or 3.96%; WTI fell $2.91/barrel, or 2.54%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 16725 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 17700 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.83% over the beginning of the month and 27.64% over the same period last year.
In the PX market, domestic PX prices rose this month. The price was 10200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 10900 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 6.86% over the beginning of the month and 67.69% over the same period last year.
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In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose rapidly in the first ten days of this month, and fell sharply in the middle of the month. The price was 8980 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9158 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 1.98% from the beginning of the month and 15.63% from the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
On the cost side (crude oil), the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not ended, and the short-term trend of crude oil is still full of uncertainty. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ production increase decision, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
Toluene export arbitrage window is still open. It is expected that domestic toluene supply will continue to be tight in July, supporting prices. However, in the future, the impact of exports on prices will be reduced, and the market will focus more on downstream demand. In July, the downstream demand is expected to weaken slightly, but the cost side and supply side support remain, and the toluene price is expected to remain high. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, toluene device dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on toluene price.
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