1、 Price trend
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene soared in the first ten days of this month, and the price quickly climbed to the highest level of the year; The trend began to turn around and fall back in the middle of the month. On June 1, the price of mixed xylene was 8180 yuan / ton; On June 28, the price was 8390 yuan / ton, up 2.57% from the beginning of the month and 42.69% from the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
At the beginning of the month, mixed xylene rose actively, continuing the positive trend in May. Since the middle of the month, with crude oil and mixed xylene in the outer market falling, the decline of mixed xylene in Asia has expanded, the support of external news has weakened, and the market focus has shifted to domestic supply and demand. In June, the domestic mixed xylene maintenance devices were restarted, and the supply increased gradually, while the demand side atmosphere was general. Gasoline blending consumption was dominated by the original inventory, market support weakened, shipments increased, prices fell rapidly, and due to the lack of export support, the decline was more obvious than that of toluene.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil continued to fluctuate in a wide range this month. Tight supply and increased demand are expected to support crude oil prices, but the interest rate hikes of central banks across the country led to market concerns about economic recession. As of June 28, Brent fell by $4.86 per barrel, or 3.96%; WTI fell $2.91/barrel, or 2.54%.
In the external market, the price of mixed xylene in Asia fluctuated widely this month, and the overall price rose from the previous month. On June 28, the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was $1282 / ton, up $40.5 / ton, or 3.26%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was $1232 / ton, up $24.5 / ton, or 2.03%.
In the PX market, domestic PX prices rose this month. The price was 10200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 10900 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 6.86% over the beginning of the month and 67.69% over the same period last year.
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In the ox market, the price of ox in East China fell back after rising this month. The price was 8800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8800 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price was flat compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 41.94% compared with the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose rapidly in the first ten days of this month, and fell sharply in the middle of the month. The price was 8980 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9158 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 1.98% from the beginning of the month and 15.63% from the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
On the cost side (crude oil), the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet ended, and the short-term trend of crude oil is still full of uncertainty. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ production increase decision, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
In July, it is expected that the supply of mixed xylene will continue to rise, while the downstream market will weaken, and the terminal gasoline will enter the off-season of consumption. It is expected that the demand for mixed xylene will decrease. On the whole, the high price of mixed xylene is difficult to maintain. If crude oil and the outer market continue to fall, mixed xylene will continue to weaken. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene device dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene prices.
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