1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of maleic anhydride as of the end of the week was 7700.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.87% from 7633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

On December 27, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 72.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.34% from 123.67 (December 26, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 29.14% from 56.17, the lowest point on February 16, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. This week, most of the major domestic maleic anhydride plants are in normal operation, and the main domestic production plants are in high price operation. The main production areas are limited in stock, driving the domestic maleic anhydride market price.

Industrial chain: the international crude oil continues to rise, the downstream unsaturated resin operates stably, and the terminal demand is general. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. Sinopec’s listing price increased by 200 yuan / ton to 5950 yuan / ton in the week, which led other enterprises to follow the rise. The listing price of pure benzene on Friday was 5700-5950 yuan / ton. This week, the hydrogenated benzene market is slightly lower. The operating rate of the hydrogenated benzene enterprises is lower than that of the earlier stage. The price difference between crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene is narrowed. The loss of the hydrogenated benzene enterprises is increased. There are many maintenance plans in the near future. Some units may reduce the operating rate. By Friday, the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China is 5750-5800 yuan / ton. High price consolidation of n-butane. The price of domestic main production plants is relatively high, and the spot goods in main production areas are limited, which drives the market price of domestic maleic anhydride.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are 22 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are respectively trichloromethane (10.53%), epichlorohydrin (4.42%) and propane (3.82%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are sulfur (- 5.63%), phosphate rock (- 3.20%), lithium carbonate (- 3.06%). This week’s average was 0.11%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of maleic anhydride products of business association, at present, maleic anhydride stock is limited, but there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. In addition, the market of maleic anhydride is expected to decline slightly in the short term due to the proximity of resin parking cycle.