1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the spot market price of PVC increased in May. On May 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5556 yuan/ton. On May 28th, the average price was 6026 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 8.46% within the month.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market price rose in May. In the first half of this month, The spot market price of PVC has slightly increased, and the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement has increased. In mid month, the spot market price of PVC continued to rise, and from May 18th, the interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans was lowered, resulting in positive macro news, The PVC futures market has performed outstandingly, with the spot market following suit and the overall market trend improving. In the latter half of the year, China Mobile purchased PVC pipes, and the TMA prices for auxiliary materials increased significantly, with the domestic spot market prices mainly rising. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5830-6250 yuan/ton.

In terms of imports and exports, according to the latest customs statistics, the import volume of pure PVC powder in China in April 2024 was 21600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 43.60% and a month on month decrease of 18.94%. The average monthly import price was 794.80 US dollars per ton. The export volume was 240300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 78.04% and a month on month decrease of 19.10%. The monthly average export price was 728.73 US dollars per ton. The total export volume from January to April was 866400 tons, and the total import volume was 83500 tons.

On May 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The US stock market is closed for one day due to Memorial Day. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.88 per barrel, up $1.04 or 1.2%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell first and then rose in May, and overall, the price fell. On May 1st, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China was 2883.33 yuan/ton. On May 28th, it was 2833.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73%. Overall, downstream procurement performance was average, and the price of calcium carbide in the market was relatively stagnant. It is expected that in the short term, the price of calcium carbide in the market will temporarily remain stable.

On a macro level, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to April, the national real estate development investment was 3092.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%. From January to April, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6875.44 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. The newly constructed area of housing is 235.1 million square meters, a decrease of 24.6%. The completed area of houses is 188.6 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%.

The People’s Bank of China has decided to lower the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points starting from May 18, 2024. The interest rates of personal housing provident fund loans for first homes under 5 years (including 5 years) and over 5 years will be adjusted to 2.35% and 2.85%, respectively. The interest rates of personal housing provident fund loans for second homes under 5 years (including 5 years) and over 5 years will be adjusted to not less than 2.775% and 3.325%, respectively.

According to the official website of China Mobile, China Mobile recently announced that the plastic pipe (PVC-U pipe) product procurement project from 2024 to 2025 has met the bidding conditions and is now undergoing open bidding. The announcement shows that China Mobile’s purchase of PVC-U pipes this time has a total scale of approximately 59400 kilometers and a project completion period of 2 years.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to PVC analysts from Business Society, the news for this month is mainly positive, with futures prices rising and driving spot market prices. The price of raw material calcium carbide has been lowered, and the cost support is average. The real estate data is still declining, and downstream demand is still mainly in the form of rigid demand. The sentiment of high price replenishment is not high, and downstream product enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in the short term, the spot market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations.