According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of natural rubber in China continued to rise in mid May. As of May 20th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14180 yuan/ton, which is about 13590 yuan/ton compared to May 11th, an increase of 4.34%.

In mid May, the natural rubber market rose, with the Shanghai rubber 09 contract fluctuating from around 14130 yuan/ton to around 14860 yuan/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 14000-14100 yuan/ton, bulk at around 12600-12700 yuan/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 11500-11700 yuan/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 11300-11600 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Currently, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam are affected by weather, resulting in slow rubber cutting progress. As of May 20th, the price of Thai glue is 78.2 Thai baht/kg, with an increase in price; Delayed opening of Vietnamese production areas; The Yunnan production area in China has been affected by drought, while Hainan has been affected by rainfall, resulting in poor rubber cutting and relatively tight supply of raw materials, leading to an increase in market prices.

On the demand side: Downstream tire maintenance enterprises are gradually recovering their production scheduling, with a focus on rigid demand procurement. As of May 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 70%; At present, the inventory in the tire market is relatively sufficient, and shipments are average. Tire companies are cautious in purchasing raw materials, with a focus on immediate needs.

Inventory: As of May 19, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 548000 tons, a decrease of 18400 tons or 3.25% compared to the previous period. The inventory in the bonded zone was 72400 tons, a decrease of 3.69%; General trade inventory was 475600 tons, a decrease of 3.18%. At present, the port is in a state of destocking.

At present, the price monitoring of natural rubber is at a one-year high, a two-year high, and a three-year high. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of natural rubber in the past three years is 12650.97 yuan/ton, with a median value of 12835 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 11170.00 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 14500.00 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (lower than the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 3010 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (lower than the highest price difference in the past three years) is -320 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Limited raw material output from Thailand and Vietnam on the supply side, limited output from domestic production areas, high raw material prices, and support for natural rubber costs; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side are in the off-season, with limited procurement and insufficient support for rubber raw material demand; At present, the inventory of natural rubber in ports continues to decrease. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the short term.