According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in December 2023, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market first fell and then rose. The average price in the domestic market was 15840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 15695 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 0.92%.

 

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On December 27th, the lead commodity index was 95.00, an increase of 0.03 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.11% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 27.29% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On December 27th, the base metal index was 1171 points, an increase of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.54% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 82.40% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

 

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile. June August was the peak season of the season, and it continued to decline after September. Judging from the weekly trend, there is more decline than increase.

 

At the beginning of the month, the futures market was weakly affected by funds, and the trend of Shanghai lead basically returned to the fundamentals. Under the influence of the seasonal off-season in the market, the overall decline of Shanghai lead was affected. During the same period, LME lead inventory has risen to a high of 140000 tons, putting significant pressure on the market and dragging down market sentiment. In terms of supply and demand, enterprises that underwent maintenance in early December resumed work, and the supply of lead ingots in the market is expected to improve. In terms of demand, downstream enthusiasm is relatively strong in the off-season atmosphere, and the battery industry is mainly actively destocking. The demand for automotive batteries is stable, but the overall operation of electric bicycle batteries is weak, and the overall demand is still weak. The market experienced a broad decline due to the impact of low demand season and high inventory. Towards the end of the month, the Federal Reserve released a signal of monetary easing, leading to a general strengthening of base metals and a slight increase in lead prices in Shanghai. However, the supply and demand side is still in a seasonal off-season, and the recent market trend has been greatly affected by fundamentals. Overall, the lead ingot market is still under pressure under the influence of terminal demand off-season and high inventory. It is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly, and we will continue to pay attention to the macro impact in the future.

 

Related data:

 

In November 2023, China’s automobile production and sales reached 3.093 million and 2.97 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 29.4% and 27.4%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.074 million and 1.026 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 39.2% and 30%.

 

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On December 18th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the national lead production in November 2023 was 653000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%.

 

According to data from the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on December 21, the global lead market supply gap narrowed to 13800 tons in October 2023 and 16100 tons in September; From January to October 2023, there was an oversupply of 40000 tons in the global lead market, and from January to October 2023, there was a shortage of 213000 tons in the global lead market.

 

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined lead (including unrefined refined lead) in China in November 2023 was 20.75 tons, a decrease of 64.6% month on month and 51.5% year-on-year.

 

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) on December 13 shows that from January to October 2023, global refined lead production was 12.2557 million tons, consumption was 12.2826 million tons, and supply was 26900 tons short. From January to October 2023, the global lead ore production was 4.1682 million tons. In October 2023, the global refined lead production was 1.2428 million tons, with a consumption of 1.2561 million tons and a supply shortage of 13300 tons. In October 2023, the global lead ore production was 434700 tons.

According to data from the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on December 21, the global lead market supply gap narrowed to 13800 tons in October 2023 and 16100 tons in September; From January to October 2023, there was an oversupply of 40000 tons in the global lead market, and from January to October 2023, there was a shortage of 213000 tons in the global lead market.

 

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined lead (including unrefined refined lead) in China in November 2023 was 20.75 tons, a decrease of 64.6% month on month and 51.5% year-on-year.

 

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) on December 13 shows that from January to October 2023, global refined lead production was 12.2557 million tons, consumption was 12.2826 million tons, and supply was 26900 tons short. From January to October 2023, the global lead ore production was 4.1682 million tons. In October 2023, the global refined lead production was 1.2428 million tons, with a consumption of 1.2561 million tons and a supply shortage of 13300 tons. In October 2023, the global lead ore production was 434700 tons.

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