1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of December 15th, the spot nickel quotation was 133875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.01% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 39.93%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 8% and risen by 3% in the past 12 weeks, with the recent rebound being the main trend.

On a macro level, the November retail sales of the US stock market announced on Thursday evening were 0.3%, higher than expected and previous levels; The number of weekly claims for unemployment benefits was 202000, lower than expected, reflecting the resilience of the US economy and employment, and slightly weakening the market’s optimistic expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. On Thursday evening, the Bank of England will release its interest rate resolution and meeting minutes; On Thursday evening, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision released a bearish signal. Although the interest rate remained unchanged, it was stated that there was no discussion of a rate cut. After the meeting, traders reduced their bets on the European Central Bank’s rate cut, and it is expected that the rate cut in 2024 will not exceed 150 basis points. The Bank of England also maintains a hawkish stance, with Bank of England Governor Bailey stating that it is too early to begin speculating about a rate cut, and it cannot be said that interest rates have reached their peak. The European and British bias towards the hawk and the American bias towards the dove led to a decline in the US index, benefiting precious metals to a certain extent.

In terms of supply: In November, the domestic refined nickel production was 23060 tons, which was the first 4% decline compared to this year; Intermediate products: High nickel ice and MHP prices continue to weaken slightly. In November, Indonesia’s MHP continued to increase production to 20500 nickel tons, while high nickel ice production reached 17500 nickel tons.

In terms of demand, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream market nationwide this week was 871600 tons, a decrease of 4.55% compared to the previous week. There has been a seven consecutive decline, mainly in the 200 and 300 series. The production side has been affected by the cost decline, with a total production of 2.952 million tons of stainless steel crude steel in December, an increase of 3.5% compared to the previous month. The increase is mainly reflected in the 300 and 400 series. In terms of the new energy vehicle industry chain, the slowdown in terminal sales data may further transmit to the middle and upper reaches, and the production of ternary materials is expected to continue to decline slightly month on month in the future, dragging down the demand for nickel sulfate.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined nickel in China in October 2023 was 6441.889 tons, an increase of 898.92 tons month on month or 16.22%; A year-on-year decrease of 5510.618 tons, a decrease of 46.1%. From January to October 2023, the total import volume of refined nickel in China was 76132.126 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51474.328 tons, a decrease of 40.34%.

In summary, pure nickel accumulates both inside and outside, the production of ternary precursors deteriorates, and the price of nickel sulfate drops. Nickel production slightly decreased in November. There are variables in Indonesia’s nickel mining policy, and new production capacity for primary and secondary nickel has been gradually put into operation, continuously testing the demand side’s ability to undertake. It is expected that the short-term low volatility trend of nickel prices will be the main trend.