In September, domestic polycrystalline silicon surged and entered a consolidation pattern, stabilizing the market at a high level. The main reason is that downstream markets generally resist high prices and continue to push up weakly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon rose only 0.82% in September. As of the end of the month, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar energy level has been maintained at 80-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers have maintained a reasonable level of operation. At the beginning of the month, the market was still affected by power restrictions, and the operating rate of devices remained low. Multiple devices were shut down, causing silicon material prices to inertia rise. From mid to late month, devices gradually recovered. The slow release of newly added production capacity has led to an increase in supply, gradually improving the supply and demand pattern, and significantly easing supply pressure. This is also the main reason why the price of silicon materials has not continued to rise. The accumulation of downstream silicon wafers directly suppresses the demand for upstream raw material procurement. At present, the silicon material market is slowly showing signs of oversupply, but the supply of high-quality silicon materials is still tight, and mid to low end materials may experience a turning point in the market next month.

On the demand side, although the market demand was relatively mild in September, the overall inventory of silicon wafers continued to rise, and the market entered a stage of accumulation. Some second tier silicon wafer manufacturers showed obvious willingness to reduce production, but the overall operating rate remained high. However, the possibility of production reduction in the later stage is not ruled out, which will further affect the sales of silicon materials. From the demand for downstream battery cells, it can be seen that downstream battery cells continue to decline, and some models of silicon wafers have also become loose. According to monitoring, G12 silicon wafers have dropped from 4.35 yuan at the beginning of the month to 4.2 yuan currently. The overall demand pressure is showing an increasing trend. From the perspective of terminal components, the demand for overseas projects is mainly reduced, which will become a demand constraint. However, the demand for centralized installation in China is still on the rise, which ensures that there will not be too much fluctuation in demand. Overall, it is mainly balanced.

Future forecast: The supply of silicon materials in the market will remain reasonable and stable in the near future, but there is also a risk of inventory accumulation in the future as the release of new production capacity increases. Moreover, there has not been much improvement in demand, so the tight supply of silicon materials may gradually ease, and there is little possibility of a retaliatory rebound in the future. Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that prices are expected to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future.