1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of October 20th, the spot nickel quotation was 152850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.8% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 21.29%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen by 8% and risen by 3%, with recent weak declines in nickel prices.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that, considering the risks and the process of interest rate increase so far, the Federal Reserve is realizing the dual mission of maximizing employment and price stability. After Powell’s voice, the yield of US treasury bond bonds fell in shock, and US stocks fell in response, adding to the tension in the Middle East, the market risk sentiment rose.

In terms of supply: Indonesia has increased production capacity for intermediate products and nickel plates, and there is sufficient supply of pure nickel domestically. The overall supply of refined nickel is expected to be under increasing excess pressure. The Philippine mining price has loosened, and the sea freight has fallen, putting upward pressure on nickel iron prices. At present, global nickel inventory is on the rise, new delivery sources are flowing into the market, some Russian nickel resources are being sold, and futures warehouse orders continue to rise.

In terms of demand: expectations for the downstream peak season have basically fallen through, steel mills have reduced production, upstream and downstream pressures are forcing downward, nickel iron costs are hanging upside down, and there may be a risk of production reduction. In terms of new energy, there is an oversupply of nickel sulfate, resulting in a decrease in demand for pure nickel. The disturbance of nickel mining events has led to a decrease in MHP production, which has supported the price of nickel sulfate.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined nickel imports in September were 5542.97 tons, a decrease of 19% month on month and 42% year-on-year. Russia is the top supplier, importing 2909 tons from Russia that month, a decrease of 14.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. From January to September this year, a total of 69984 tons of refined nickel were imported, a decrease of 39.5% compared to the same period last year.

In summary, the macro level is mixed, with many domestic economic data improving, but the situation in the Middle East has escalated overseas. Coupled with speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials, the market has a high level of risk aversion. Fundamentally, the pure nickel spot market is still weak, with domestic inventory accumulation and LME destocking slowing down. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will be weak.