According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic butadiene market price rose by a narrow margin. From December 2 to 9, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 6366 yuan/ton to 6566 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.14% in the cycle, 5.80% month on month and 13.48% year on year. The No. 1 unit of Yangzi Petrochemical Company was temporarily shut down due to the impact of an upstream emergency. The sudden positive supply side boosted the mentality of businessmen. The butadiene product quotations of the distribution companies of Sinopec, the main manufacturer, were raised by 300 yuan/ton, and traders took advantage of this.

On the cost side, the international crude oil price fell to the lowest level in the year. As of the 7th day, the settlement price of the main contract of the WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 72.01 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 77.17 dollars/barrel. Due to the performance of some US economic data exceeding expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike still exists, which suppresses the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The main transaction price of naphtha fell, while the downstream demand was just in demand, and some refineries reduced their prices for shipment. Butadiene costs have many negative factors.

On the supply side, affected by the upstream unexpected news, the 1 # 60000 t/a butadiene unit of Yangzi Petrochemical stopped temporarily on December 8. Zhejiang Petrochemical 2 # and Fujian jointly repaired a set of units, and the capacity utilization rate of butadiene industry decreased by 0.40%.

On the demand side, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China decreased significantly from 10880 yuan/ton to 10527 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.24%. Domestic SBR prices were mainly sorted out, with the price dropping 0.22% from 10858 yuan/ton to 10833 yuan/ton. The price of nitrile rubber in China was stable, and remained at 15150 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream rubber industry has no obvious positive pull, and the product price has been sorted out at a low level, with about 60% starting. There is no favorable factor for butadiene demand.

In terms of external market: the closing price on December 8, while the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB South Korea reported 745-755 dollars/ton; China CFR quoted 755-765 US dollars/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 495-505 dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 535-545 euros/ton.

Region./Country./Closing price./Up and down

Asia/. FOB Korea./765-775 US dollars/ton./0 yuan/ton

Asia./CFR China./755-765 USD/ton./0 USD/ton

Europe and America./FOB Rotterdam./495-505 USD/ton./0 USD/ton

Europe./FD Northwest Europe./535-545 euro/ton./0 euro/ton

Future market forecast shows that the port inventory increase, the main production enterprise Shenghong has output expectations, and the supply side lacks a long-term positive boost. Short term shocks attract some traders to buy, but the downstream trend is not good, and the just needed support is limited. Butadiene analysts from the business community expected that the short-term domestic butadiene market would be dominated by shocks.