According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of styrene in Shandong was 8400 yuan/ton on January 1 and 8066.67 yuan/ton on December 15, a decrease of 3.97% in the year. The highest point of the price market was about 11128.57 yuan/ton on June 14, which was 32.48% higher than the beginning of the year. The lowest point was 7700.00 yuan/ton on November 30, which was 30.81% lower than the highest point.
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styrene
In 2022, the price of styrene will generally show a trend of “rising – fluctuating and falling”. From the monthly K-bar chart of the business community, in 2022, the number of months for the price of styrene to rise will be more than the number of months for the price to fall, of which January has the largest upward range, reaching 6.07%, and October has the largest downward range, reaching 10.3%. The strong rise in the first half of the year was mainly due to the soaring crude oil market, which gave support to the cost of styrene, a large number of European and American devices were overhauled, the global supply of styrene was tight, overseas styrene prices drove up domestic prices, domestic net imports decreased, industry inventories were low, and prices rose in shock. The shock drop in the second half of the year was due to the sharp drop in the crude oil market, which has recently fallen to the lowest level in the year, driving the decline in the pure benzene market. The support for styrene cost has weakened, and multiple styrene units have been put into operation. The styrene production capacity has continued to expand, and the market supply has increased. The shock drop in the styrene market.
In the first half of the year: the cost supports the sharp rise of styrene market
The price of styrene rose in the first half of the year. On January 1, the price of styrene in Shandong Province was about 8400.00 yuan/ton, and on June 14, it was about 11128.57 yuan/ton. The price rose by 32.48%. The factors influencing the sharp rise of styrene market are as follows: first, the international crude oil price has risen in shock, and the benefits of bulk commodities are obvious. The petrochemical industry chain has actively followed the rise, including strong growth of pure benzene and ethylene, and strong support at the cost end; Secondly, Shanghai SECCO, Anhui Haoyuan, Sinochem Quanzhou, Qingdao Bay, Shandong Wanhua, Huatai Shengfu and other devices have been shut down for maintenance, which has greatly reduced the utilization rate of styrene production capacity, hitting a new low in recent years, and the factory inventory is at a low level in recent years, providing some support for styrene; Thirdly, the import volume of styrene in China from January to June was 584300 tons, a significant drop of 282500 tons or 32.29% compared with 866800 tons in the same period last year. The total export volume from January to June was 421200 tons, a significant increase of 201800 tons or 91.98% compared with 219400 tons in the same period last year. Among them, monthly net exports were achieved from April to June. The oil price drove the aromatics prices in Europe and the United States up. The arbitrage window was opened for a long time, which was good for the domestic styrene market.
Second half of the year: supply and demand double weak styrene market fluctuated and declined
In the second half of the year, the price of styrene dropped by shock. On June 15, the price of styrene in Shandong Province was about 11057.14 yuan/ton, and on December 15, it was about 8066.67 yuan/ton, down 27.05%. The trend in the second half of the year can be divided into three parts. The first part is from the middle of June to the middle of August. Influenced by macro negative factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase, the crude oil price fell sharply, the styrene futures price fell, and downstream demand remained weak. The styrene spot market fell to about 8500 yuan/ton. Part II From late August to mid September, due to the continuous low profits of styrene, some manufacturers shut down or reduced load production, the operating rates of the three major downstream increased, the demand reached the high value in the year, and the styrene market rebounded when the port inventory fell to a low level. Part III From late September to December, the port inventory of raw material pure benzene continued to rise, and the weak price could not provide effective support for styrene. Tianjin Dagu styrene plant was restarted, domestic styrene supply increased simultaneously, styrene inventory pressure was high, and spot prices continued to decline.
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The production of styrene in 2022 is less than expected, the continuous rise of raw material market and the loss of unit profits are the main influencing factors. Luoyang Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Anqing Petrochemical were delayed to 23 years, and Maoming Petrochemical has stopped due to accidents after a short period of operation. In the coming 2023, styrene is still in a large production cycle, and the industrial chain will also usher in centralized production. The capacity growth of each core link in the upstream and downstream may reach a high level. Styrene is rapidly moving towards supply saturation, or even excess.
styrene
In the first 10 months of this year, China’s styrene imports totaled 924300 tons and exports 542400 tons. In 2022, the import volume of styrene will decrease significantly. With the increase of domestic styrene production and the low level of overall operation of overseas units, the net import of styrene will decline year by year. The dependence on styrene import will gradually decrease. However, the international flow of goods will continue, forming a new arbitrage path. The export is related to the maintenance of overseas devices. The overseas maintenance is mainly concentrated in spring. Combined with the seasonality of styrene export in the past two years, it is expected that the large-scale export in 23 years will also be concentrated in March June.
According to the styrene data analysts of the business community, the price of styrene will rise first and then fall in 2022. The increase in exports will drive the rise, and the cost support will become weak after being strong in the early stage. As 2023 approaches, the price of styrene in the next year will be adjusted and balanced by the guidance of crude oil cost, import volume, port inventory and the enthusiasm of downstream goods. At present, the pure benzene supply increment is expected to decline, and the cost support is poor. Downstream demand remains just in demand. In December, the styrene plant will restart more, and it is expected that the styrene will decline in a short time.
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