PA66 price high power price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market rose sharply in late February, and the spot prices of various brands grew fiercely. As of February 24, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises in the business community was about 34500 yuan / ton, and the offer price of market merchants was about 38000 yuan / ton. The overwhelming rising atmosphere in the market made people think of the historical high price of PA66 in 2018.

Cause analysis

The main factor of the soaring market is the tightening of raw material supply. In the United States, due to the continuous influence of the cold current weather in the polar region, many enterprises, such as crude oil and chemical industry, have stopped production, and the devices are frequently overhauled. Among them, INVISTA, an international manufacturer of PA66 and its industrial chain related products, was seriously affected by the cold disaster in two adiponitrile and two hexanediamine factories in Texas, USA. In addition, alsander plant in Alabama, its adiponitrile and hexanediamine plants also declared force majeure. According to industry estimates, the above plants alone account for 65% and 50% of the global capacity of adiponitrile and hexanediamine. In the fourth quarter of last year, the upstream supply of PA66 began to show signs. Until the eve of the Spring Festival, the industry was still in a dilemma due to the high cost pressure. The production capacity loss caused by this disastrous weather has made the global PA66 raw material supply “snow on frost” in a very severe situation. Then came the frequent price increase letters of related products, coupled with the uncertain restart time of most production units. The business community speculated that the tight supply may take a long time to recover.

Although the establishment of China’s adiponitrile production line project in 2019 aims to break the pattern that adiponitrile is completely dependent on imports, the current development is still young, and the domestic production of PA66 is still highly dependent on imports of adiponitrile. The tightening of raw material supply for the domestic PA66 industry is no different from the “neck” status. Affected by it, domestic brands rose. Pingdingshan Shenma, Huafeng Group and other PA66 products rose by 2000 yuan / ton on the 23rd. At present, the rising atmosphere in the market is still strong. At present, the domestic polymerization plants mainly use the shipment to meet the early orders and complete the supply of old customers. Less spot on the floor, lead time growth, inventory worry free, manufacturers suspend external offer. The shortage of downstream non major customer factories may be even worse.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe: the current domestic market price of PA66 is rising sharply, and the business offer cycle is shortened. By the end of the 24th, this week’s increase has reached 15%. The demand of the automobile industry has picked up. The “black swan” event of the capacity loss of the upstream international large factories added to the cost support of PA66, and also became the cost pressure of PA66, making the price of PA66 extremely high. However, in the short term, the guidance for PA66 market is clear, and it is expected that PA66 will be strong. Explosive rise