1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, domestic toluene prices continued to rise this week. The price of toluene was 4250 yuan / ton on January 31, and 4737.5 yuan / ton on this Sunday (February 7), up 11.47% from 487.5 yuan / ton last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 450-500 yuan / ton. This week, the spot supply of toluene Market decreased, the supply of toluene is expected to shrink, and the price rose strongly. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the lower reaches leave the market one after another, the demand weakens and the actual transaction is limited. In terms of external market, toluene continued to rise this week. As of February 5, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $615 / T, up 11.21% on January 29, and that from East China was US $631.5/t, up 9.92% on January 29.

In terms of crude oil, due to bad weather in the United States, energy demand is expected to increase. In February, OPEC + cut production, global crude oil supply is expected to tighten, and the market is optimistic about the demand outlook. Brent crude oil rose nearly $60 / barrel. On January 29, Brent rose $4.64/barrel, or 8.42%; WTI rose $4.62/barrel, or 8.87%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose slightly this week, with domestic goods at 12833.33 yuan / ton, up 0.52% over last week and 9.69% over the same period last year. Near the Spring Festival, dealers have a holiday one after another, the downstream buying follow-up is weak, and the market begins to enter a closed state. Affected by the supplier’s support for the market, the TDI market was reorganized and operated.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price rose slightly this week, with an average price of 5300 yuan / ton over the weekend, a year-on-year decline of 15.87%. This week, the domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. By the end of the weekend, the closing prices of PX market in Asia were US $718-720 / T, FOB Korea and US $736-738 / T, CFR China. This week, PX’s external price rose, international crude oil price rose, and domestic PX market price rose.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Downstream terminals have been shut down, logistics reduced, toluene market is expected to enter a period of stable price consolidation. Continue to pay attention to the downstream purchasing situation, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of toluene.