Price Trend
According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc prices in China fell sharply this week, with the biggest drop in non-ferrous products this week. As of June 21, the price of zinc was 20153.33 yuan/ton, down 3.29% from 20840.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Zinc prices fell 15.56% over the same period last year. Overall, cobalt prices fell sharply this week, while zinc market was negative.
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II. Market Trend Analysis
In terms of products:
This week, the price of zinc in LME market fell sharply. In June, the price of zinc dropped much more than that of other non-ferrous metals, and there was limited space for zinc price to fall. Inventory of zinc decreased and supply of zinc declined in the future, and zinc market had some momentum to rise.
Zinc prices fell in Shanghai. The June contract closed at 20425 yuan/ton, down 615 yuan/ton, or 3.01%. This week’s futures price of zinc is 21040 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 18575 yuan/ton. Shanghai futures zinc stocks fell. This week, futures zinc inventory growth, zinc supply increase, zinc market downward pressure still exists, but the recent zinc market demand warmed up, zinc inventory began to decline, zinc market in the future still has an upward momentum.
Data statistics:
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The report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) shows that the global zinc supply shortage increased to 84,000 tons in April and 48,700 tons in March.
According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global zinc market was oversupplied by 4,600 tons in January-April 2019, compared with 67,000 tons in the whole year of last year. Global refined zinc production declined by 4% from January to April 2019, and consumption decreased only slightly from the same period last year. Apparent demand in Japan was 177,700 tons, down 2.7% from January to April 2018. Global zinc demand declined by 1,000 tons from January to April 2019. China’s apparent demand is 1969,000 tons, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. In the first four months of this year, the global supply shortage of zinc increased to 97,000 tons, compared with 53,000 tons in the same period last year.
The data show that the growth of global supply is declining faster than that of demand. Zinc supply shortage is increasing, and the driving force of Zinc market is greater.
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3. Prospects for the Future Market
Business analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that: Shanghai futures market zinc ingot inventory rises, domestic zinc supply is sufficient, international zinc market zinc price fell this week, the domestic zinc price is negative, but statistics show that the global zinc supply shortage increased, good for the zinc market, zinc prices in the future have a driving force, expected future zinc price shocks rise.