Price Trend

This week, the domestic market of cyclohexanone shook. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 8 350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8 600 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price dropped by 2.99% in the week, 28.33% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cyclohexanone market price rose slightly this week, then decreased slightly. Pure benzene market is weak and rising, and cost support is stable. On May 22, Bank of China of Jining parked and repaired but exported normally. The volume of cyclohexanone exported from western Shandong decreased slightly, and the spot production of cyclohexanone decreased slightly. In addition, the purchasing volume of chemical fibre factories downstream last week was still acceptable. Traders were in a high mood, actively purchasing in large quantities, manufacturers and markets took advantage of increased opportunities, and the price of East China market rose to 8950 yuan/ton cash delivery. During the week, the downstream caprolactam market continued to be weak. The caprolactam manufacturers with cyclohexanone gap still had production lines in the parking maintenance stage. The overall demand for chemical fibers was relatively small. The downstream market was not confident enough in the future market. Market shipments were blocked. Market prices began to yield slightly. The market mentality was pessimistic and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week the price of pure benzene in East China rose slightly, mainstream negotiations in East China in 4500-4550 yuan/ton, Shandong mainstream negotiations in 4250-4380 yuan/ton. Within a week, the number of ships arriving at the port decreased, and the inventory of East China Port decreased slightly to about 230,000 tons. Caprolactam: This week, domestic caprolactam liquid spot market declines slowed. As for raw materials, the price of pure benzene has little fluctuation, basically maintained at 4450-4500 yuan/ton, which has little effect on caprolactam; the price of cyclohexanone has risen slightly this week, and the cost pressure of manufacturers that take cyclohexanone outside is still high. In terms of supply and demand, the supply of caprolactam has decreased this week. In Shanxi Lubao 100,000-ton plant parking overhaul, Xuyang 100,000-ton plant parking overhaul, Yangquan 200,000-ton plant resumption of production, Hubei Sanning 140,000-ton plant short shutdown for three days, the spot supply has decreased, and some factories have low-price mentality.

3. Future Market Forecast

Short-term cyclohexanone plant silver May 22 parking overhaul, planned to start in early June, expected next week spot export volume will increase slightly, in addition to the current manufacturers still have spot inventory pressure. From the cost point of view, the pure benzene market is consolidated horizontally, and the cost support is relatively stable. On the demand side, there is no plan to restart Nanjing Dongfang in June. Yongrong cyclohexanone plant starts normally and can basically meet the demand for caprolactam. In the short term, Shenyuan’s purchase of cyclohexanone is unlikely. Shandong Haili’s 200,000-ton caprolactam plant has maintenance plan in early June, while cyclohexanone is still unclear. Overall, however, the supply of cyclohexanone may exceed the demand. Cyclohexanone analysts, a business firm, expect the market to remain weak next week.